Prospect for 2024 Political Party Alliances
It is important for us to remind parties that they can give a priority to discussing seriously the policy agendas that will be fought for by the alliance candidates and parties.
Two important political events recently have confirmed the names of the candidates who will compete in the 2024 presidential election.
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has officially announced Ganjar Pranowo as its presidential candidate. This information was conveyed directly by Megawati Soekarnoputri, who was accompanied by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo.
Previously, five chairmen of political parties (Golkar, Gerindra, the National Awakening Party [PKB], National Mandate Party [PAN] and United Development Party [PPP]) explored the possibility of forming a grand alliance, which is likely to nominate Prabowo Subianto. Interestingly, the party leadership meeting was also attended by President Jokowi. If realized, this grand alliance would represent nearly 50 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives, with 284 out of 575 seats.
Meanwhile, several months earlier, three parties, namely NasDem, the Democrats and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), had declared Anies Baswedan as their presidential candidate.
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With the announcement of candidates who will compete in the presidential election, voters can begin to examine the candidates’ achievements, performances and track records. Voters can also compare which candidates have the competence and capability to lead Indonesia in the future amid tough domestic and global challenges.
Even though there is certainty about the candidates who will compete in the election, the disassembly of alliances is still possible and can lead to uncertainty. Electoral system effects, including the holding of simultaneous elections, and strict presidential nomination requirements, contribute to creating such uncertainty.
Uncertainty about alliances is also driven by the fact that there is no guarantee that electoral alliances that have been formed can survive until the presidential candidate registration period. The absence of strong ties allows parties to easily navigate between allied blocs. Moreover, at the same time, second-tier parties compete with each other to be able to nominate their members as vice-presidential candidates.
Complicated
The certainty of the candidates’ names in the presidential election has not provided certainty about the alliance blocs that will be formed. Currently, parties still face a number of complications in forming alliances. Most of the complexity of forming an electoral alliance stems from the strict requirements for presidential nominations, which make it difficult for parties to negotiate.
The difficulty in building the alliance is evident from the deadlock in alliance talks at the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), which consists of Golkar, PAN and the PPP; and the Greater Indonesia Awakening Coalition consisting of Gerindra and the PKB. In the past year, the two alliances have failed to agree on a mechanism for determining candidates and deciding which presidential and vice-presidential candidates to run.
The complexity of forming a stable alliance is also influenced by the simultaneous implementation of the presidential election and legislative elections. Simultaneous implementation of the presidential and legislative elections requires parties to estimate the effect of presidential election support on party votes in the legislative elections. This situation means the parties will have to judge which candidate has the potential to win and influence the party's vote in the general election.
In addition, within the parties there is also a trade-off between nominating party members or non-party members as presidential/vice-presidential candidates. In simultaneous elections, the nomination of potential party members is seen as being able to increase the solidity of members and voters as well as driving the party machine.
In the midst of this alliance uncertainty and deadlock, the exploration of the grand alliance and the announcement of the presidential candidate by the PDI-P can become milestones in alliance building. It should encourage parties to accelerate the formation of more stable alliances.
Durability
The chance of a candidate winning, a fair sharing of power between alliance parties, and the same political platform/agenda are important variables that can overcome the complexity of party alliances in the presidential election. In the two previous presidential elections, it could be seen that the presidential candidate was the anchor of the alliance.
In the 2004 presidential election, for example, the charismatic figure of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) became a kind of game changer, which made a number of parties work together in the People's Coalition in the second round of the presidential election. Meanwhile, in the 2014 presidential election, Jokowi appeared as a populist figure who was able to attract cross-party leaders in the Great Indonesian Coalition (KIH). His influence was strengthened because he had stable electability and was more likely to win than Prabowo. This situation made it possible to confirm Jokowi's candidacy long before the election.
In the upcoming 2024 presidential election, the absence of a dominant presidential candidate will make the factors forming electoral alliances more complex. In the midst of this situation, the figure of President Jokowi has become one of the important variables in influencing the formation of alliances. Moreover, the election will be held in a situation where the level of public satisfaction and trust in the government is stable and high.
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Public trust and voter satisfaction with government performance have made Jokowi an indispensable figure in the political map for 2024. Public satisfaction with the government has been relatively stable at above 60-65 percent since the second term of government. In fact, in the March survey, 73.1 percent of respondents said they were satisfied with the President's performance (Indikator Politik, March 2023).
In addition, Jokowi's electoral influence is still high. It is estimated that a third of the 55.5 percent of voters for Jokowi in the 2019 presidential election are still waiting for a political signal from Jokowi before making their choice of a particular presidential candidate. It is not surprising that Jokowi's political endorsement has had an effect on the electability of one particular candidate.
In exploring a grand alliance, for example, the Jokowi factor cannot be fully removed as an anchor and glue between parties, although on several occasions he has often conveyed his position as not the general chairman of a political party. Jokowi's political influence in the grand alliance, for example, can be seen from the commitment of the five parties to continue the Jokowi government's agenda and program if they win the presidential election.
Amid this chance, political vulnerability also lurks. Vulnerabilities can grow if President Jokowi's political interest changes toward a particular candidate. Or, if the PDI-P initiates a new alliance axis that can attract one or two parties from the grand alliance.
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Prospects
In the midst of this complex situation, it is still quite difficult to predict the future direction of the inter-party alliances. Parties are still trying to find common ground, especially with regard to the nomination of presidential/vice-presidential candidates. After nominating Ganjar as a presidential candidate, the PDI-P may become the initiator of a new alliance or choose to join the grand alliance.
As the party that won the 2014 and 2019 elections and can nominate a president without having to form an electoral alliance, the alliance options that the PDI-P will choose may influence the road map for the presidential election alliances going forward. However, until now, these options are still difficult to predict due to dynamic alliance conditions and fluctuations in the electability level of presidential candidates. The uncertain prospects for inter-party alliances show how complicated alliance formation is.
The effect of an extreme multi-party combination that results in high political fragmentation with a nomination requirement of 20 percent of seats in the House makes forming electoral alliances very difficult. This makes it very difficult to push parties to form early, permanent alliances.
The uncertain prospects for inter-party alliances show how complicated alliance formation is.
For political parties, earlier alliances can provide time for parties to discuss agendas, policies and campaign platforms. Parties are also more flexible in preparing a road map for a new government during the transitional period ahead of the inauguration of the new president.
Going forward, amid the frenzy of inter-party alliance talks, it is also important for us to remind parties that they can give a priority to discussing seriously the policy agendas that will be fought for by the alliance candidates and parties.
This is important given that the challenges facing the government will be more severe in the future, such as administering a clean and incorrupt government, reducing poverty and economic inequality in society, as well as health, environmental and climate change issues.
Arya Fernandes
Arya Fernandes, Chair of the Department of Politics and Social Change, CSIS
This article was translated by Kurnia Siswo.
