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Public Opinion over 2024 Presidential Candidacy

Name: Public Opinion over 2024 Presidential Candidacy
Uploaded: 2022-11-10T06:33:35Z
Duration: 20 min 32 s
Description: The dynamics of national politics as we head toward the 2024 General Election is escalating along with the heightening actions and reactions among the political contestants that will step into the battlefield.

The dynamics of national politics as we head toward the 2024 General Election is escalating along with the heightening actions and reactions among the political contestants that will step into the battlefield.

GUN GUN HERYANTO

· 8 minutes read

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The ongoing situation shows political powers have begun get polarized. It will be among the busiest phases for political parties by the end of this year and the beginning of next year.

While preparing themselves to enter the stages of legislative election, political parties are set to engage in intense communication with each other to finalize the nomination of presidential and vice-presidential candidates who, among the prospective figures, are eligible to run in the 2024 elections. They cannot afford to slip up or make mistakes in decision making, with their future political power at stake.

Building opinion

Political parties now have to navigate between public expectations as reflected in growing public opinion, the other parties’ interests and of course their own political aspirations. Slowly but surely, political interests and maneuvers that were initially gathering randomly have begun to form a pattern that party elites have to discern carefully.

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German sociologist and communication expert Ferdinand Tönnies, in his classic book Kritik der öffentlichen Meinung (1922), divides the building process of public opinion in three stages.

The first stage is “die luftartigen (airy) position”. At this stage, people are starting to show interest in an issue but public opinion is gathering very randomly and moving in an uncertain way. In this phase, those who harbor ambition to be picked up as presidential or vice-presidential candidates will generally make themselves present in various ways. There are those who try to impress the public through social media, billboards, videotrons, framed-news publication or more-committed office-functional works.

This introductory stage serves presidential/vice-presidential candidate aspirants with an opportunity to work out their candidacy ambitions through the basis of party structure, volunteering team, consultants, survey institutions, media journalists and netizens on social media.

The second stage is “die fleissigen (lazy) position”. At this stage, public opinion will have formed a pattern. Polarization of public opinion becomes more evident between those who are pro and contra. People consolidate to position themselves either as supporters, opponents or indecisive swing voters.

Recent public polling by several survey institution has given an overture of political choices with a shortlist of names being mentioned as the most-prospective figures to enter the election battlefield. A survey by Kompas, through its research and development (R&D) division, which was held from September 24 to October 7, showed Ganjar Pranowo's electability rate amounted to 23.2 percent. Prabowo Subianto's electability followed in second place with 17.6 percent, with Anies Baswedan in third with 16.5 percent.

Those three names have so far looked unchallenged at their top perches, with varying percentages and position closeness in several other survey institutions. From the randomness of names, public opinion has begun to form a pattern and this can weigh on decision-making.

The third stage is called “die festigen (festival) position”, in which public opinion will have reflected more established or fixed aspirations in society about who to choose. It is likely that from the beginning to the middle of next year, public opinion about candidates will have been more polarized.

When the running-mate packages are already officially registered with the General Election Commission (KPU) for the presidential and vice-presidential "horserace", public opinion will enter another stage. The public will respond to the official candidacy list by scrutinizing each running pair that will usually see them consolidating themselves during campaign period. The probability of vote count will have been calculable although the calculation is not a linear process.

Inflation, geopolitics, social polarization, law enforcement and several other issues require attention from political party elites and candidates during the 2024 presidential election.

While trying to deal with the circulating issues and arising conflicts, interest-harboring circles may spring surprises any time. Public opinion will strengthen again to a certain extent and the prospects for victory can already be mapped ahead of polling day. Public opinion can be a precursor for how political parties should navigate and respond to the growing aspirations. It is true that public opinion as an actively stimulated response can never exist in a vacuum. There is always a process of constructing opinion by interested circles.

There may be an opinion-constructing process that appeals to the public and can therefore be converted into public desire, interest, acceptance and support. However, there may be a few opinion constructions that draw public response only moderately. Forcing forward-presidential or vice-presidential candidates of little electoral magnet will pose a serious problem in the efforts to win the competition.

Why has establishing public opinion at this time entered the stage of die fleissigen position earlier than expected? It is related to Nasdem Party’s (Nasdem) early maneuver to declare Anies as a presidential candidate. This has triggered intensity in political communication. The option for Anies itself had hastened Nasdem to communicate with the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Democratic Party.

We can see the same phenomenon in the formation of United Indonesia Coalition (KIB). The United Development Party (PPP), National Mandate Party (PAN) and Golkar politicians have come out more explicitly by mentioning a number of candidate names, including Ganjar, Ridwan Kamil and Airlangga Hartarto. Likewise, Gerindra and the Nation Awakening Party (PKB) are now more intense in finalizing the coalition plans.

Another factor contributing to early emergence of the second stage is the results of surveys by various polling institutions that leave Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies consistently at the top.

This has accelerated the dynamics in figure preference to shape up in a more patterned direction. Barring extraordinary factors that might interfere in the building situation, it is likely that political parties will have no option but to use a scientific approach to discern public opinion as a reference in decision-making.

Defining factors

From the perspective of political communication, there are three important factors deserving to be managed seriously, carefully and effectively by political parties and the presidential/vice-presidential candidates in the midst of the flooding public opinion in the lead-up to 2024.

First, get connected with the narrative. Politics is often connected with perception and that narrative management becomes very important. Narratives are not just words, but also symbolic actions that will be interpreted by various circles. The political parties or the presidential/vice-presidential candidates must not put in narratives simply as a means to build emotional allegiance, such as talking about the personality of the presidential/vice-presidential figures, but also functional values related to ideas about how to overcome various problems in this country.

Inflation, geopolitics, social polarization, law enforcement and several other issues require attention from political party elites and candidates during the 2024 presidential election.

Walter Fisher in his book Human Communication as Narration: Toward a Philosophy of Reason, Value and Action (1987), points out the importance of building narrative rationality. Not all narratives have the same appealing weight. There are two principles in narrative rationality, namely coherence and fidelity. Of course, narratives should not be reduced into just a tagline in political branding.

The common thread of ideas to overcome national problems today and in the future must be resonated.

The integration between narratives and characters of the speakers is very decisive. Likewise, the relevance between narratives and factual truths in society will make both political parties and presidential/vice-presidential candidates worthy of consideration as part of the nation's solution.

Second, symbolic convergence between elites and the public. Initially, public opinion is scattered randomly, personally and collectively. If not managed, public opinion can resemble a bubble that fills the media and social media timelines, and when being pursued to reach, it bursts and disappears without a trace.

In his book The Force of Fantasy: Restoring the American Dream, Ernest Bornmann (1985) states the goal of symbolic convergence is to explain how individuals converse with one another so that they share a common consciousness and create a sense of identity and community. In essence, one way to develop an emotional bond between the presidential/vice-presidential candidates and the public is through attempted collective awareness.

John F Cragan, in his book Understanding Communication Theory: the Communicative Forces for Human Actions (1998), describes symbolic convergence as the communication force behind the creation of public awareness.

Bringing presidential/vice-presidential candidates into public awareness is not an easy undertaking. It is not enough to use a linear approach through various publicity in the mass media and social media. The elites must come over, acknowledge the residents, build interactions, listen with clear conscience and mind to their aspirations and formulate their input into a common thread of ideas and programs that are worth venturing for.

The elites coming over, the public will catch the radiance of honesty, warmth and sincerity or vice versa, which may turn out to be falsehood, superficiality and hypocrisy. That is where symbolic convergence or shared awareness will be put to the test.

The third factor is communication privacy management. A political issue that often arises in the midst of paradoxical situations should be managed to find out which messages are worth conveyance and which are not. Elites’ statements must consider the consequences for them and their political backers.

Larry A Samovar and Richard E Porter (Communication Between Cultures, 2009), refer to communication as being irreversible. What has been said cannot be taken back. Communication privacy management is one of the keys in managing opinion in a situation like today. One of the most important things a politician should have is the ability to self-judge. If the public is clearly showing grudges, why should a politician force him or herself to enter the battlefield!

Gun Gun Heryanto, Lecturer of Political Communication at State Islamic University (UIN) Jakarta and Executive Director of The Political Literacy Institute

This article was translated by Musthofid

Editor:

NASRU ALAM AZIZ

general election political party presidential candidacy party coalitions