Enigma of the Presidential Nomination in 2024

The process of nominating presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 general election is no easy matter, especially for political parties that are calculating their future chances at gaining power.

The random pattern of political alliances makes all the major political parties cautious in thri decision. Enigma is the right word to describe the current situation.

All camps are calculating the potential nominees, the action-reaction in nature of the communication and negotiation schemes between the political parties that will be competing, as well as the dynamics of public opinion.

Elite political communication

Michael Gallagher and Michael Marsh provide in Candidate Selection in Comparative Perspective: The Secret Garden of Politics (1988) a vivid illustration of the complex process of candidate selection, which he calls the “secret garden” of politics. It could be that this refers to a process that often presents an enigma, is difficult for the public to touch, even though the frontal dramaturgy is often shown to a wide audience.

It is interesting to look at the number of factors that make the process of nominating presidential/vice presidential candidates so complex and gives rise to an enigma.

The determining factor in the candidate nomination process is the personal relationships that characterize the political communication among the elite. In fact, Indonesian political parties generally still depend on the relationships between political leaders. For example, Megawati Soekarnoputri's personal relationship with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has made it difficult to form an alliance between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Democratic Party.

This relationship ahead of the 2024 general election can be seen in the context of Megawati's strained relationship with Surya Paloh (NasDem Party), even though their parties are both part of the Indonesia Onward Cabinet.

Also read:

> Political Communication in 2024

> 2024 Election Important Opportunity to Maintain Integration

Surya and Megawati send veiled barbs against each about “arrogant parties”, although they do not explicitly mention names. Considering this context of the communication between the two, it is difficult to say that there is no action-reaction in between their statements.

The mention of three names, including Ganjar Pranowo (PDI-P cadre) at the NasDem Party National Working Meeting (17/6/2022), can amplify discomfort in communication. This is what James McCroskey calls a communication apprehension phenomenon in Stephen W. Littlejon’s Theories of Human Communication (1998), namely a reluctance to communicate due to certain circumstances.

However, it is too premature to draw any conclusions. It is possible that their interpersonal communication will evolve towards mutual understanding and mutual benefits with the emergence of a potential presidential or vice presidential nominee who can unite the two parties’ strengths and bring surprises.

Learning from the 2019 presidential election, it was alleged that this interpersonal relationship prevented Mahfud M.D. from becoming Joko “Jokowi” Widodo's running mate before his candidacy’s eleventh-hour announcement. Apparently, there were objections from several elite members of the parties supporting Jokowi, so that in the end, the choice shifted to K.H. Ma'ruf Amin. In short, relational dialectics is still a factor that lends surprise to the nomination process.

In A Dialectical Perspective of Communication Strategies in Relationship Development (1988), Leslie Baxter describes relational dialectics as a knot of contradictions in interpersonal relationships that makes for constantly opposing interactions. The fragmented multi-party landscape and the fluidity of political power relations in Indonesia make a difference. Political communication, especially among party elites, is still likely to change and present many surprises.

Political advantage

Another decisive factor is the motive to benefit from power. Politics is not mathematics, so is often nonlinear. At the stage of emerging schemes as now, many people could calculate the high chance that four political axes will form to contest the 2024 presidential election.

For example, the first axis could be driven by the PDI-P nominating Puan Maharani or Ganjar Pranowo. Even if they nominated both in a single package, the PDI-P will have no problems during the nomination stage. The PDI-P has 128 seats (22.26 percent) in the House of Representatives (DPR). That is, it has exceeded the presidential threshold of holding 20 percent of House seats or 25 percent of the popular vote.

The second axis can be driven by Gerindra with 75 seats (12.3 percent) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) with 58 seats (9.6 percent). If the two parties form an alliance, they have 133 seats or 21.9 percent, and can nominate a presidential ticket. The third axis of the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), comprised of the Golkar Party (85 seats), PAN (National Mandate Party) with 44 seats and PPP (United Development Party) with 19 seats to make 48 seats, has already pocketed one presidential ticket.

Also read:

> 2024 Presidential Election Axis

> Room for Leadership Selection 2024

The fourth axis can be driven by the NasDem Party (59 seats), the Democratic Party (54 seats), and the PKS (50 seats). If they share 163 seats, they can put forth a ticket.

However, all these calculations are on paper! The politics of nominating a presidential and vice presidential pair is more often determined by negotiations for political benefits.

Ideally, the 2024 presidential election will offer more than two candidate pairs, but the consolidation of power into two axes is still possible.

For example, the KIB, even though it was announce a long time ago, may not actually be able to nominate a candidate pair. As yet, they do not have names or figures from within the alliance’s members that are popular enough to be electoral magnets. If they are not careful in managing communication between the three parties in the alliance, each with different interests, it is very possible that the KIB could break up or switch to supporting a candidate nominated by the other axis.

Gerindra will not necessarily be able to easily build an alliance with the PKB, especially if the party led by Prabowo Subianto forms an alliance with the PDI-P in the end and nominates the Prabowo-Puan pair. The NasDem-Democrats-PKS alliance will also be very much determined by whether all three parties can agree on a candidate. NasDem has mentioned three figures, namely Anies Baswedan, Andika Perkasa and Ganjar Pranowo. To form an alliance with the PKS and the Democrats, of course, they have to negotiate the three names that are most acceptable to them and at the same time, can open the field for the vice presidential pick, considering that the Democrats are also certain to propose Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

What is clear is that in the 2024 election, the parties that will find it very difficult to form an alliance are the PDI-P with the Democrats and the PKS. In addition, the PKS will find it difficult to form an alliance with Gerindra following the psychopolitical obstacles of 2019 presidential election and the political constellation of filling the Jakarta deputy governor post that was vacated by Sandiaga Uno.

All political parties understand very well that one of the advantages of having a cadre appear on a presidential ticket is that this usually increases the party's vote gains in the legislative election. We can see this from the vote gains Gerindra and the PDI-P made in the last two elections, as well as the Democrats when SBY ran in 2009 election.

Also read:

> Preparing for the Great 2024 election

> Coalition Models for 2024

Megawati will still color the game changer in the 2024 presidential nomination process. The PDI-P presidential nominee, which Megawati will pick since she has the prerogative, can dynamically change the names the other axes will put forth.

Jokowi also deserves to be considered as a game changer. Although he will not publicly announce his support for certain figure, he is very likely to consolidate his political power to help increase the bargaining power of the figure he supports.

Jokowi has an interest in maintaining continuity of the various programs that he has launched and implemented over his two terms.

The enigma of the nomination process is also very likely to be colored by behind-the-scenes groups that have economic power. Their roles are often invisible on the surface but are felt in the political arena, because they also have a financial role in winning (the election).

Bonnie N. Field and Peter M. Siavelis emphasize in Candidate Selection Procedures in Transitional Polities (2008) that candidate selection is one of the important functions of a political party. Tradition in the candidate selection process is a reflection of political institutionalization.

This process is also an indicator of where the real locus of political parties’ power lays. Is it still oligarchic, feudal and transactional, or not? Political parties must improve by selecting figures worthy of continuing the national leadership, not solely determined by the personal tastes of the political elite.

KOMPAS/WISNU WIDIANTORO

Gun Gun Heryanto

Gun Gun Heryanto, Political communication lecturer at UIN Jakarta, executive director of The Political Literacy Institute

This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo.