Selecting Presidential Candidates

The simultaneous general elections, the presidential and legislative elections, are getting closer. D-day has been set for Wednesday, 14 February 2024. About 16 months away.

The atmosphere of political competition, especially for the presidential election, is heating up.

Many have analyzed, forecast and surveyed the electability of several potential presidential candidates. There have also been various comments in the form of support or derision against candidates who are considered to be competing, either in the form of memes, polite expressions or language that disturbs the sensibilities of civilized humans.

So far, we have not heard of programs from the presidential candidates whose names often appear on the radar of survey institutions. The reason is that the official campaign period – including debates between candidates – has not yet started. Therefore, the support and criticism of the candidates so far have been more emotional than rational considerations.

Polarization of the nation

Partisanship based on emotional consideration, if out of control, can be dangerous. It can lead to sharp polarization, instability and division of the nation. This is even more so when considerations of religion, group and ethnicity become the basis for this alignment.

The elites in charge of this country from now on have to think about what steps are needed to maintain peace in this five-year fiesta of democracy.

There were signs in that direction. The elites in charge of this country from now on have to think about what steps are needed to maintain peace in this five-year fiesta of democracy.

The fate of our country for five years, starting in 2024, of course, will depend a lot on the people's choice. However, before that, the responsibility lies with the political parties that will determine who will be presented to the people for election.

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With the latest law concerning the threshold for the number of votes or the number of seats required in the House of Representatives, which is quite strict as a condition for a party or coalition of parties to be able to nominate candidates, voters have limited freedom to determine who is the best to lead this country. Ideally, the party will nominate a presidential candidate based on considerations of the character and integrity of the candidate who understands the main problems and challenges ahead for this country.

Understanding the various principles of good state administration, such as accountability, openness and public participation, the ability to choose competent, honest and inspiring assistants, effective and fair law enforcement, inclusiveness, qualified managerial abilities and various qualifications – should be reflected in the choice leader.

Unfortunately, what happens more often than not is not what we expect.

Political parties are more inclined to pick someone who is expected to win in the next presidential election. For parties, politics is about winning or losing. Not entirely on what is good or bad. The candidate who wins the election is expected to “pay back” in the form of positions of power in the government. Meanwhile, survey results are more often determined by the image of the candidate that is in line with public tastes and sentiments.

2024 presidential election

We can design various surveys and analyze who will be the people's favorite choice in 2024 by grouping the voters into various categories, such as their education level, cultural background, ethnicity, income level and gender. However, what has happened with today's voters appears to be another form of grouping that so far has not been the target of surveys.

The pro groups voting for the “new Jokowi” and those against Jokowi.

Although Joko “Jokowi” Widodo cannot run again as a presidential candidate because he is limited by the constitution, Jokowi, whose popularity is still quite high, whether intentional or not, has given birth to the emergence of new groupings. The pro groups voting for the “new Jokowi” and those against Jokowi.

Some of the public believe that a presidential candidate supported by Jokowi will continue Jokowi's style and policies that are considered successful.

It is not entirely wrong if the choice for a new president later falls to a candidate who promises to continue Jokowi's policies, because for many citizens, Jokowi is considered to have succeeded in leading this country for almost two terms. Various fields that are often used as examples include infrastructure development such as toll roads and airports.

Also, economic stability and security, especially in securing the country from disturbances by extremist elements and religious radicals. The spread of development in areas far from Java as a center of the administration. No less important, the populist and humble leadership style is the main attraction.

However, no matter how successful a president is, there are still many aspects of his government's management and policies that are considered to have failed. After two terms, or 10 years under a president, there is always a sense of saturation with the leader that is felt by the rest of the public. They want a new face and style even though the new face will not necessarily be better than the one it replaces.

Therefore, in many countries, a presidential candidate from a different party often wins contests in an election when he is able to demonstrate a different identity and conflicting programs and policies with the leader being replaced.

In fact, if these arenot repaired in Jokowi’s remaining term, it could leave a bad legacy for his successor to overcome. What are they?

What about the case of our upcoming presidential election? As mentioned above, not all aspects of Jokowi's administration paint a completely bright picture. In fact, if these arenot repaired in Jokowi’s remaining term, it could leave a bad legacy for his successor to overcome. What are they?

The new law that weakens the efforts to eradicate corruption by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK); criminal cases, drugs, online gambling that allegedly involved law enforcement officers; the decline in quality of our democracy with the frequent limited participation of the public in the law-making process in the House, which is considered pro-business.

There are also various “costly projects”, such as the plan to relocate the national capital which seems to be rushed or forced, the failure of the food granary project in Kalimantan and many other similar cases.

Not to mention President Jokowi's weakness in placing his assistants in the cabinet and other important institutions. Although there are several outstanding assistants, most of the ministers he has picked are based on considerations of political remuneration rather than expertise, technocracy and integrity.

Differentiating factors

The point that will be conveyed here is that the weaknesses and shortcomings of the President can be used as material for a smart presidential candidate to draw a line between him and Jokowi and convince voters that choosing a photocopy of Jokowi as presidential candidate does not mean guaranteeing the welfare of the people.

In other words, to say that those who are considered in line with Jokowi will gain an advantage over those who are opposed to the current president is not necessarily true. It depends on how the opponent presidential candidate can offer an alternative personality and program that creates new hope for the voters.

It is a general election. So there has to be a choice between different candidates. If everything is the same or similar, it will be like the fake elections in some authoritarian countries that are propagated as democracy. Political parties carrying presidential candidates must also have the courage to present unique and different presidential candidates as opponents.

After 24 years since the Reform movement and the implementation of a state system that puts the people as the highest authority, our democracy has not yet grown in line with the expectations of many parties. Therefore, our five-year election cycle is so far almost the only opportunity for the majority of people to express their aspirations in the form of a mandate for the president and political parties.

If the end result is only to produce leaders who are not aspirational, it will be not only a waste of huge election costs, but also a huge loss to the nation in the form of time wasted in overcoming our various shortcomings.

Abdillah Toha, Political, Economic and Religious Observer

(This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo).