Domino Effect of Ganjar Pranowo

During the Idul Fitri holiday, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) gave a surprise, with chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri, who holds the prerogative in the party, formally announcing on Friday (24/4/2023) Ganjar Pranowo as the party’s presidential candidate in the 2024 election.

The PDI-P’s endorsement of Ganjar, while again reaffirming Megawati as a game changer, is expected to have a domino effect on the alliance map in the final phase of the presidential nominations.

From the perspective of political communication, Megawati's nomination of Ganjar draws attention and deserves appreciation. The announcement carries a “wow!” effect. Not many could have thought Megawati would announce her nomination of presidential candidate would coincide with the Idul Fitri 1444 Hijri holiday.

Reverberating resonance

Public attention is imminent, given the fact that this presidential candidacy is resonating as a topic of conversation on social media and in mainstream media publications. It is in this context that Maxwell E. McCombs, in his book Setting The Agenda: The Mass Media and Public Opinion (2013), says that the extent of media spotlight on an issue will potentially weigh on public attention on the issue. This is so, especially when the issue in the media has strong relevance with the public’s growing interest.

The public had a reason to be surprised. Many still assumed that the party’s internal affairs could not have moved to announce its nomination this soon, given the speculation that there was still rivalry revolving over the potential candidacy of Ganjar and Puan Maharani, Megawati’s daughter. Many had predicted that the announcement of the PDI-P’s presidential candidate would not come until days before the official registration period of the General Elections Commission (KPU), considering that the PDI-P already had the right to name its own candidate alone, by virtue of fulfilling the presidential nomination threshold.

The conflicting interest between Puan and Ganjar must be placed within the context of the PDI-P's internal dynamics. There may have been competition over the presidential nomination, but this seemed to be under control, with the figure of Megawati being able to bring over the affiliative constraints.

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According to Dennis Gouran, in his book The Signs of Cognitive, Affiliative and Egocentric Constraints (1998), affiliative boundaries allow an organization’s members to restrain themselves and choose not to risk being rejected by a central figure. One of the PDI-P's political identities is the “group think” phenomenon that places Megawati as the determinant, central figure.

There will always be ripples of tests to see who is more popular as a potential and acceptable candidate. And at the same time, Megawati will allow these ripples to run to show she can accept both figures as the PDI-P's prospective presidential candidate. It is not easy to gain the endorsement of Megawati as the party’s sole holder of the prerogative to nominate its candidate.

So, the conceived rivalry between Puan and Ganjar some time ago must be read as part of the PDI-P’s issue and conflict management and a scenario with both internal and external objectives. Internally, it wanted to observe the solidarity of its members in the face of the election battle. Looking outwardly, it was observing the public's reaction to nomination-related dynamics. Development in this issue brought political publicity for the party because it ended up drawing media attention and public discourse over the PDI-P issue for months.

While politics is unpredictable, it is also predictable, as in the case of how Megawati put her nomination forward. The last two elections have shown that Megawati is neither too early nor too late in announcing her presidential candidate.

In the 2019 election, Megawati announced Joko “Jokowi” Widodo as the PDI-P’s presidential candidate during a national work meeting in Bali on Friday, 23 Feb. 2018. Likewise, ahead of the 2014 election, Megawati picked Jokowi as the party’s presidential candidate on Friday, 14 March 2013. Whether or not it's simple coincidence, for three elections in a row (2014, 2019, 2024), Megawati has announced her presidential candidate on a Friday between March and April.

Symbolic

Another thing that follows a pattern in the PDI-P’s presidential nomination is what appears to be a political decision with a historical message. Two things that stand out in Megawati's announcement of the party’s presidential nominee are a historical occasion and its wording. Ganjar's presidential nomination coincided with 21 April, which is celebrated by the nation as Kartini Day. Historically, Kartini Day was designated during the administration of President Soekarno (Megawati’s father) on 2 May 1964 with Presidential Decree No. 108/1964. The decree decided that R.A. Kartini deserved the status of a heroine of Indonesian Independence.

Using the occasion of Kartini Day, Megawati delivered a political message about Soekarno’s immortalized presence and role in her landmark decision, which might contribute to the dynamics of the nation today and in the future. The figure of Soekarno was taken as a reference of power for Megawati and the PDI-P, while at the same time she also sent a strong message of emancipation that was Kartini's cause.

Thus, she wants people to see the presidential nomination as not only an instrument to formally announce a candidacy decision, but also one that carries the substantive dimensions of historical and ideological values.

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Another political highlight in her announcement was the wording of her decision. Underlying Megawati's speech to announce Ganjar's candidacy was: "At 1:45 p.m. Western Indonesia Time, by saying bismillah [in the name of God], [I] elevate the status of Ganjar Pranowo, who is a party member and worker, to taking on the duty as a presidential candidate.”

So, the phrase “party member and worker” precedes the phrase affirming his role as a presidential candidate. It carries the clear message that a presidential nomination in the PDI-P tradition is associated with the candidate’s function as a party member as well as a party worker! This phrase of affirmation was also conveyed repeatedly when Megawati decided that the PDI-P was backing Jokowi in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections.

It carries the clear message that a presidential nomination in the PDI-P tradition is associated with the candidate’s function as a party member as well as a party worker!

We can interpret Megawati’s practices as symbolic interactions. Herbert Blumer, in his book Symbolic Interactionism Perspective and Method (1986), refers to symbolic interactionism as a process of interaction in order to impart meaningful or significant messages to each individual. Social interactions occur because of the use of symbols that have meaning. According to Blumer, it is made up of three main components: meaning, language and thought.

“Meaning” does not simply inhabit an object inherently, but develops through the process of human social interactions. Therefore, “meaning” is formed and modified through interpretive processes carried out by humans. “Language” is the source of meaning that develops widely through social interactions between humans, so language is also referred to as an instrument. “Thought” has implications for the interpretation we give to symbols. The basis of thinking is the mental process of converting meanings, names and symbols.

In short, in announcing Ganjar's nomination on Kartini Day, Megawati seems to be building social interactions from historical, present-day, and future dimensions in society. The language of “emancipation” becomes the basis for taking the side of an issue, while “party member and worker” becomes the basis for the organization’s struggle. All can be interpreted as a symbolic action that seeks to place the PDI-P as a party of members with firm ideological roots.

Of course, the public will also have their own point of view, with “meaning” probably not understood linearly. One symbolic action can be interpreted differently, because it often creates various meanings (poly-semiotic), or can even be distorted by other contradictory symbolic actions.

Alliance dynamics

Ganjar's presidential nomination will have a domino effect on cross-party political communication. The chance to create the widely spoken about “grand alliance” associated with the diction of “power continuity” is growing bigger. On the other hand, there is an alliance driven by the Democratic Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Democrats (NasDem). Thus, the 2024 presidential election will potentially pit two main alliances against each other, between the proponents for “continuity” and those for “change”.

Ganjar's nomination is now certain to have a support base equivalent to 128 PDI-P seats in the House, while the presidential nomination threshold is set at just 115 seats. Thus, Ganjar has been cleared a path to step forward with his candidacy, even though he is only supported by the PDI-P. However, going it alone will certainly be very risky because passing the nomination phase does not guarantee that the candidate will win the contest. Therefore, the PDI-P will definitely lean towards political cooperation.

In the case that consolidation can proceed by involving the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), which comprises the National Mandate Party (PAN), Golkar, and the United Development Party (PPP) with 148 seats, and the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR), comprising Gerindra and the National Awakening Party (PKB) with 133 seats, plus the PDI-P’s 128 seats, Ganjar has the potential to be supported by a grand alliance of political parties with a combined total of 409 House seats.

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However, politics is not math! Of course, building a grand alliance of political parties is not as easy as turning the palm of the hand. There must be understanding and agreement, especially concerning three things, namely the candidate pair (presidential and vice presidential candidates), a power sharing scheme, and the campaign financing mechanism.

At the negotiation level, the planned grand alliance requires the main figures who are rumored of being touted as presidential candidates to be willing to accept being mere running mates for the sake of the best alternative to an agreement. For instance, Prabowo must be willing to become the running mate to Ganjar Pranowo and vice versa.

At the same time, there are figures believed able to build solidarity in the hope that the chairmen of the political parties in the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) and the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR) will not insist that they be nominated for vice president. Smoothing out the Ganjar-Prabowo and Prabowo-Ganjar scenarios will be largely determined by the political communication among the three main figures: Megawati, Prabowo and Jokowi.

If a common ground cannot be found for pairing Ganjar and Prabowo, three alliances are still very likely to occur. Regardless of the configuration of alliances that will form, it is important to present the public with the principle of competitive elections, not elections that are just lip service.

KOMPAS/WISNU WIDIANTORO

Gun Gun Heryanto

Gun Gun Heryanto, Lecturer in political communication and dean of the Da’wah and Communication Science School at Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN); executive director of The Political Literacy Institute

This article was translated by Musthofid.