The results of Kompas’s National Leadership Survey, the public preference of a presidential candidate is increasingly narrowed to Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies. However, new figures have also begun to appear.
By
BAMBANG SETIAWAN
·5 minutes read
KOMPAS
The Big Three Presidential Candidates Version of the Kompas Research and Development Survey
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The 2024 presidential election is still two years away, but the dynamics of the nomination have begun to warm up. Figures, political parties and interest groups have begun to increase their political intensity. Among the public, the preference can be seen from the movement of preference in figures who are considered capable of becoming leaders of the next administration.
From October 2021 to January 2022, changes were seen in the electability of a number of figures who were referred by the public to become presidential candidates. When compared to Kompas’ National Leadership Survey (SKN) in April 2021, which still relatively shows quite a number of figures in the “second league” category, the disparity of electability began to widen in October 2021. The potential difference in electability was even greater in January 2022, with Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan more dominant and further away from other figures.
The results of the survey conducted by Kompas Research and Development (Litbang) from 17 to 30 January 2022, showed that if the elections were held at the time the survey was conducted, 26.5 percent of the people would elect Prabowo, followed by Ganjar (20.5 percent) and Anies (14.2 percent). The survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 respondents who were randomly selected using a stratified systematic sampling method in 34 Indonesian provinces. The research margin of error is +/- 2.8 percent, so it can be said that there is a significant difference in the potential for election between the three figures.
The survey also shows that the electability of figures is still dynamic, especially in the competition for the top three figures. In the April 2021 survey, Prabowo was in first place with 16.4 percent of the vote, but in October 2021 it dropped to 13.9 percent, the same as Ganjar's. His electability potential increased in January 2022. Despite a drastic jump in the January 2022 survey, Prabowo's electability was still far from the votes he and his running mate, Sandiaga Uno, gained in the 2019 presidential election. At that time, this pair gained 44.5 percent of votes.
Meanwhile, Ganjar has consistently shown an increase in potential electability, from 7.3 percent in April 2021 to 13.9 percent in October 2021 and is now 20.5 percent. Although the vote for him rose, his ranking position lags behind Prabowo. The acceleration of the increase in votes in the January 2022 survey is also not as drastic as before.
Meanwhile, Anies, who in the two previous surveys, tended to stagnate in his electability, in January this year he showed some movement. In April 2021, his electability was 10 percent and in October 2021 it was 9.6 percent, in January 2022 it rose to 14.2 percent. Even though he started to move, Anies' ranking has not been able to surpass Ganjar and Prabowo.
KEMENTERIAN PARIWISATA DAN EKONOMI KREATIF
Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno (right, blue shirt) observes the floor plan of the Manado Tourism Polytechnic which will be built in Kalasey Dua Village, Minahasa, North Sulawesi, during a visit on Tuesday (15/2/2022).
The more concentrated people's preference for the three figures above also have an effect on the weakening preference for other figures. There is a downward trend in the electability of a number of figures who were previously in the “second league” to become closer to the “lower league”. Ridwan Kamil, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and Tri Rismaharini, who were in the 4-5 percent range of votes, are now between 2 and 3 percent. Only Sandiaga Uno has a stable electability, previously 4.6 percent and now 4.9 percent. With that position, Sandiaga tops the electability of “second league” figures.
In the lower position, dynamics began to occur with the appearance of Indonesian Military (TNI) commander General Andika Perkasa, with an electability of 2 percent and State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir, who won 1.1 percent of the public's sympathy.
‘Firm’ and ‘popular’
"Assertiveness" and "populist" are two sides of the character of leadership, which in Indonesia are the main reference for people to vote. As if they were two opposite poles, assertiveness and populism became the same strong reasons, which differentiated sympathizers from one another.
In the 2019 presidential election, the two reasons were recorded in a balanced position. The March 2019 Kompas survey showed that 50 percent of those who voted for Prabowo based their decision on the image of him as a firm and authoritative person. As for Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, 50 percent voted for him because of his populist and modest persona.
The same situation seems to be happening in the upcoming elections. Some people will vote because it is based on the image of firmness attached to a certain figure and others will vote another figure because of their populist image.
Those voting for an assertive and authoritative persona have so far tended to stick with figures with military backgrounds, such as Prabowo, Gatot Nurmantyo, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono and Andika Perkasa. Some non-military figures are also favored because of their firm and authoritative characters, such as Basuki Tjahaja Purnama and Tri Rismaharini.
On the other hand, the image of a figure who is portrayed as a citizen tends to be attached to the figures of Ganjar Pranowo, Sandiaga Uno, Mahfud MD, Ridwan Kamil and Erick Thohir.
Another reason that is now starting to appear quite strong, beyond assertiveness and populist, is experience and achievement as a leader. This reason is evident in a number of figures who currently or have served as regional heads, such as Ganjar Pranowo, Anies Baswedan, Ridwan Kamil and Tri Rismaharini.
In the future, the competition for support will not only be determined by the political machine, but also how strong the candidate's figure is to display a character that is in line with the needs of the Indonesian people today. ( KOMPAS R&D)
