Political Party Preferences Become More Consolidated

The dynamics of national politics show that public preference for political parties have become more consolidated. The the electability of political parties is showing an increasing trend.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

Commissioner of the General Elections Commission (KPU) demonstrates voting for sample ballots during the launch of the 2024 simultaneous general election voting day at the KPU Office, Jakarta, Monday (14/2/2022). Simultaneous elections themselves will take place on February 14, 2024 or exactly two years from now..

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – The latest National Leadership Survey (SKN) by Kompas Research and Development showed that the number of undecided respondents reached 17.6 percent, a sharp decline compared to 28 percent and 44 percent recorded respectively in the 2020 and 2021 surveys.

However, when compared to similar surveys conducted between January 2015 and October 2016, a period that saw political division due to the presidential election, the number of undecided respondents and respondents who declined to reveal their preference was similar, at between 14 and 19 percent.

Even though the general elections are still two years away, it seems that the public has received various inputs and tips that have led them to take sides. This political preference was found in the survey results, which showed a sharp difference in the level of satisfaction for government performance between those who supported President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and those who did not support him.

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The SKN surveys conducted between 2020 and 2022 showed that the difference in the satisfaction level between Jokowi supporters and non-Jokowi supporters reached 32.7 percent (Kompas, 21/2/2022).

Looking at the electability of political parties, this pattern of difference in the respondents' satisfaction level was maintained throughout the two terms of the Jokowi administration and has never converged.

At the same time, the consolidation of political parties also showed a similar pattern. The major political parties that supported the government tended to maintain their positions, especially the Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Gerindra, and the Golkar Party.

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO

Rows of flags of political parties participating in the 2019 Simultaneous Election in the Senayan area, Jakarta, Sunday (7/4/2019).

Electability gap

The PDI-P remained the party with the highest electability at 22.8 percent, increasing from 19.1 percent in October 2021. Gerindra came second with 13.9 percent, up from 8.8 percent.

The political party with the third highest electability had changed to the Democratic Party with an electability rate of 10.7 percent, up from 5.4 percent. Golkar, which had been ranked third previously, dropped one rank, as its electability rate was lower than that of the Democrats. In the latest survey, Golkar's electability rose to just 8.6 percent from 7.3 percent in October 2021.

In the 2019 legislative elections, Golkar won 12.3 percent of votes and ranked third, 0.26 percentage points behind Gerindra.

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The phenomenon of the Democrats showing a significant increase in its electability and Golkar seeing a decline in electability could be viewed as an impact of the dynamics of the two political parties, both of which have promoted candidates from their own parties for the 2024 presidential election. Golkar’s presence in national politics was largely represented by its general chairman, Airlangga Hartarto, who is also the Coordinating Economic Minister. The effectiveness of billboards in several areas depicting Airlangga should also be taken into account.

Meanwhile, the significant increase in the Democrats’ electability was closely related to its success in the legal battle over the party’s leaders. It seemed that the party’s political machine had successfully gained public sympathy with the frequent appearance of Democrat chair Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono in responding to controversial issues, such as the new capital city authority, the use of the state budget to fund the relocation of the capital city, and the Old Age Savings (JHT).

It is hard to deny that with a polarized public, taking an opposing stance towards sensitive issues rising from government programs can increase a party’s popularity.

Kompas/Hendra A Setyawan

The symbols of political parties participating in the 2019 General Election are depicted on a wall in the Gandaria area, Jakarta, Sunday (10/24/2021).

Political structure

However, the Kompas survey results showing the electability pattern for major political parties, which was almost the same as the results of the 2014 and 2019 elections, reflected inertia in the public preference for political parties. It is not easy for voters to change their preference in response to emerging issues and events.

Preference for a particular political party also seems to be linked to a party having a strong political figure. The survey showed that a party with a strong figure could be attractive for some voters, but a deterrent for other voters.

Gerindra, for example, gained an electoral advantage of 31 percent from respondents who had selected a party because of the character of its leader, higher than that gained by the Democrats (27 percent) and the PDI-P (20 percent).

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On the other hand, the survey also indicated that the presence of a negative figure in a party was the biggest reason for voters to walk away from supporting that party.

It is difficult to deny that sociological factors also played a significant role in determining the voter behavior and choices. The closer they are to their preferred political party, the more loyal they were.

Dynamics can occur within certain limits as long as there are no determinants of change. One of them is a political party’s proposed candidate for president or vice president.

Political parties that did not have a strong figure to nominate for the 2024 general elections seem to have more difficulty gaining public sympathy and in increasing their electability. (Kompas R&D).

This article was translated by Hendarsyah Tarmizi.