Prabowo Subianto's returned to the top position after previously being overtaken by Ganjar Pranowo in regard to electability in the 2014 presidential election.
By
BAMBANG SETIAWAN
·6 minutes read
TIM HUMAS PRABOWO
Prabowo Subianto
Based on the latest survey results by Kompas, in May 2023, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s electability was recorded at 24.5 percent, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo at 22.8 percent and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan at 13.6 percent. The votes for Prabowo increased significantly by 6.4 percent, from the previous 18.1 percent in January 2023 giving him top position. He had previously held this position, but from October 2022 to January 2023 it was taken by Ganjar.
Ganjar, who during the survey period from October 2019 to January 2023 showed a consistent increase in electability, has fallen back. With a 2.5 percent decrease from the January 2023 survey of 25.3 percent, Ganjar's electability is now in second place. Meanwhile, Anies' electability barely changed from the previous 13.1 percent, only up 0.5 percent.
Ganjar's electability is now in second place.
Ganjar's opposition to the Israeli football team playing in the U-20 World Cup, which was later linked to Indonesia's failure to host the international event, has had an effect on his electability.
Of voters who had said they would vote for Ganjar before this, only 63 percent still support him as a presidential candidate. As many as 12.5 percent went to Prabowo and the rest went to other candidates or were undecided. The moment of Ganjar's declaration as a candidate on 21 April, the day before Idul Fitri, was Ganjar's best moment because it later became a hot topic of conversation during Idul Fitri.
HENDRICUS ARGA
Ganjar Pranowo
Simulation of three candidates
Even though Prabowo's electability is at its highest when choices are made freely, there was a change in position if the simulation is carried out only for three figures or two figures facing each other. Ganjar benefits the most in the first round of the presidential election if the candidates consist of Anies, Ganjar and Prabowo. However, victory in the first round did not guarantee that Ganjar would win in the second round. On the contrary,Prabowo is the candidate with a greater chance of winning against Ganjar in the second round.
In the simulation of the three candidates, Ganjar got 40 percent support, Prabowo 36.8 percent and Anies 23.2 percent. With this result, it can be said that Ganjar and Prabowo would qualify for the second round if the elections were held at this time. In this simulation, the calculation is carried out by only including the votes cast for three candidates and assuming undecided voters abstain. With a total of 1,049 voters, the margin of error in the three-candidate simulation was 3 percent. Since October 2022, Ganjar's superiority has been seen in a simulation of three candidates. However, the gap between his electability and Prabowo's is narrower in this survey. If previously it was 15.1 percent, now it is only 3.2 percent.
It is still difficult for Prabowo to beat Ganjar in the three-candidate simulation because most of his voting base is divided with Anies. As recorded in the survey, the votes for the Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno pair in the 2019 presidential election tend to be spread over Anies and Prabowo for the upcoming election. As much as 54 percent still support Prabowo at this time and 36.6 percent support Anies. Compared with last January, when only 40 percent of the votes came from his former voters in the 2019 presidential election, Prabowo is increasingly successful in consolidating so that there is an additional 14 percent from his old voter niche.
Only 9.4 percent of former voters of Prabowo support Ganjar. However, Ganjar has the support of the majority (56.3 percent) of Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin voters, which makes him strong enough to stay at the top of the three-candidate simulation. Nonetheless, the growing flow of votes from Jokowi's electorate to Prabowo could pose a serious threat to Ganjar's position in the coming days.
As recorded in the January 2023 survey results, 21 percent of Jokowi voters opted for Prabowo and this increased by 5.2 percent in May 2023 to 26.2 percent. While Jokowi voters who support Ganjar fell 4.7 percent from the previous proportion, which reached 61 percent.
ADRYAN YOGA PARAMADWYA
Anies Baswedan
Simulation of two candidates
Five months before the opening of the registration for the presidential and vice-presidential candidate pairings on 19 October 2023, political dynamics will still occur, including the determination of the pairs that will officially register with the General Elections Commission. Political movements may crystallize into three pairs of candidates, but there are still opportunities for four or even two pairs of candidates.
If currently the presidential election is held with two candidates or head to head, Prabowo will be the one who will benefit the most.
He wins a landslide victory against Anies and narrowly wins over Ganjar. If he faces Anies, it is predicted that Prabowo will get 62 percent and Anies 38 percent. Prabowo's advantage over Anies is 24 percent, higher than January's 14.6 percent.
If he faces Ganjar, Prabowo will get 51.1 percent and Ganjar 48.9 percent. Although not significantly different, only a 2.2 percent difference, this could indicate Prabowo's domination. With the proportions he has now achieved, Prabowo is able to reverse the position he once achieved. Ganjar defeated Prabowo from October 2022 to January 2023.
In a two-candidate scenario, Prabowo and Ganjar, Anies' voters will be distributed to both candidates, but with a proportion that is in favor of Prabowo. Anies's supporters who vote for Prabowo stand at 62 percent, while those for Ganjar are 38 percent. Anies voters to Prabowo saw an increase of 7.2 percent from the proportion found in the January survey of 54.8 percent.
Meanwhile, Ganjar is predicted to win if only Anies faces him. Ganjar gets 59.9 percent and Anies 40.1 percent, a difference of 19.8 percent. The gap between the electability of the two candidates is almost the same as the previous survey in January 2023, of 20.4 percent.
Politics is still very dynamic because there are still dramatic moments ahead, namely the declarations of vice-presidential candidates. The decision of a running mate for each candidate is very likely to change the constellation of voter support for Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies. (Kompas R&D)
