Political Party Electability Remains Dynamic

The dynamic political landscape leading up to the 2024 elections has had diverse impacts on political parties. The PDI-P is leading in electability with 23.3 percent of the votes.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

National Mandate Party (PAN) Chairperson Zulkifli Hasan, National Awakening Party Chairperson Muhaimin Iskandar, Gerindra Party Chairperson Prabowo Subianto, Golkar Party Chairperson Airlangga Hartarto, and Acting United Development Party Chairperson Muhammad Mardiono (from left to right) posing in outside the Jakarta Presidential Palace Complex, Tuesday (2/5/2023) evening after meeting with President Joko Widodo.

Among the nine parties that secured seats in the House of Representatives, four of them experienced an increase in electability, as revealed by a periodic survey conducted by Kompas in May, compared to the survey conducted in January. The four parties showing increased electability are the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Gerindra Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP). Meanwhile, the remaining five parties, namely Golkar Party, the Democratic Party, the National Democrat Party (Nasdem), the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) have seen a decline in their electability.

The PDI-P is leading in electability with 23.3 percent of the votes, experiencing a slight increase (0.4 percent) compared to the January 2023 survey.

The increase in PDI-P's electability is attributed, among other factors, to the declaration of Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo as the PDI-P presidential candidate. Chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri announced Ganjar as the PDI-P's presidential candidate on Kartini Day, 21 April 2023.

In second place, Gerindra managed to increase its electability to 18.6 percent. This increase in Gerindra's electability (4.3 percent) is the highest achievement for the party led by Prabowo Subianto since the Kompas survey conducted in October 2019.

Also read:

> Interpreting Public Satisfaction

> Appreciation Rises, Bribery and Unemployment Become a Challenge

Gerindra's electability is only 4.7 percent behind the PDI-P. The vote count between PDI-P and Gerindra is significantly higher than the party in third place. In this survey, the third position is occupied by the Democrats, which garnered 8 percent of the votes, slightly lower than the January 2023 survey.

The Democrats’ electability surpasses that of Golkar, which obtained 7.3 percent and is placed in fourth position. This situation hampers Golkar, which is part of the government coalition, from fully benefiting electorally.

The alignment of political direction with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo's administration, coupled with the endorsement of a presidential candidate, appears to yield electoral benefits for political parties. This strategy has yet to be adopted by Golkar, but Gerindra has implemented it successfully, resulting in increased electability. Gerindra effectively leverages Prabowo's advantage in projecting a strong military image while remaining in line with Jokowi's political direction.

KOMPAS

Representatives of political party leaders and KPU leaders at the Determination of Political Party Numbers Participating in the 2024 General Election in the courtyard of the General Elections Commission (KPU) Office, Jakarta, Wednesday (14/12/2022).

PAN and PPP are also seizing this political opportunity by emphasizing their alignment with Jokowi's political direction. PAN's electability has risen to 3.2 percent, while PPP has experienced an increase, amounting to 2.9 percent. The trend in electability for PAN and PPP is relatively high compared to surveys conducted since October 2019.

Conversely, Nasdem, which endorses Anies Baswedan as a potential presidential candidate for 2024, is perceived by the public as contrasting with the Jokowi administration. Its electability has now declined to 6.3 percent.

Previously, Anies' presidential nomination boosted Nasdem's electability to its highest point at 7.3 percent in October 2022. However, as support dynamics for the three presidential candidates intensify, Nasdem's voter base tends to decrease. The data for this survey was collected before the emergence of the corruption case involving the Communications and Information Ministry, in which Nasdem's secretary-general, Johnny G Plate, is a suspect.

Coalitions are influenced

Difficult to avoid, the current dominant narrative is still primarily shaped by Jokowi's role in consolidating the parties that will form a coalition. Parties face challenges in avoiding the "Jokowi influence" as approximately 15 percent of voters have expressed their intention to unequivocally follow Jokowi's guidance when deciding their preference for the presidential candidate.

Nasdem, the Democrats and PKS are further solidifying their coalition to nominate Anies as the potential presidential candidate. However, not all of them have experienced the ripple effects of this nomination. PKS, which also supports Anies, seems to have not reaped the desired harvest. In fact, its electability has decreased in the last three surveys.

Difficult to avoid, the current dominant narrative is still primarily shaped by Jokowi's role in consolidating the parties that will form a coalition.

Currently, PKS' electability stands at 3.8 percent, which is a decrease of 1.0 percent compared to the previous quarter. This figure is nearly the same as its electability in October 2019.

The Democrats’ electability experienced a significant boost in mid-2022. At that time, the increase was largely attributed to the victory in the political narrative following the Supreme Court's rejection of the extraordinary congress appeal by the Democrats in Deli Serdang in 2021.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

A number of political party chairmen, Nasdem Party Presidential Candidate Anies Baswedan, former Vice President Yusuf Kalla sat at a table in the Ballroom of the Nasdem Party DPP Office in Nasdem Tower, Jakarta, for the Nasdem Party Iftar event, Saturday (25/3/2023).

In the middle tier, PKB achieved an electability of 5.5 percent, which is a decrease of 0.6 points from the previous quarter's survey. Although it has slightly declined, PKB's vote acquisition trend remains stable throughout these surveys. PKB appears to have not benefited from the ripple effects of Prabowo's presidential candidacy, as there is still uncertainty regarding the position of PKB's chairman, Muhaimin Iskandar, in the presidential race.

Similar uncertainties can be observed in the United Indonesia Party’s (Perindo) electability, as a mid-tier party supporting the government, which has decreased by 1.0 percent to 3.1 percent. Perindo seems hesitant in directing its political support to the 2024 presidential candidate.

Also read:

> Political Narratives Affect Political Party Electability

> PDI-P and Gerindra’s Positions Remain Static

At the bottom tier, the Labor Party (Partai Buruh) and the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) have shown some increase in electability. The Crescent Star Party (PBB), the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) and the Indonesia People’s Wave Party (Gelora) have remained stagnant or experienced a decline.

Finally, based on the survey results, it is evident the electability of political parties remains dynamic. Factors such as the composition of party coalitions, the presidential candidates and Jokowi's support direction are believed to influence the electability of political parties. However, Jokowi's active role in the presidential race has begun to attract criticism.

Nevertheless, the public's attachment to political parties is not as strong as their attachment to the presidential candidates who participate in elections, particularly in a society increasingly segmented. Therefore, in addition to preparing qualified candidates, political parties must also be skilled in selecting coalition arrangements and endorsed presidential candidates to prevent their constituents from shifting their support to other parties.

(Litbang Kompas)

This article was translated by Tenggara Strategics.