Political Narratives Affect Political Party Electability
Political parties are competing to strengthen political narratives to strengthen electability ahead of elections. Which political party is superior in its current political narrative?
By
Toto Suryaningtyas
·5 minutes read
RENY SRI AYU ARMAN
Three party leaders, Golkar Party general chairman Airlangga Hartarto, PAN general chairman Zulkifli Hasan, and PPP general chairman Muhammad Mardiono sat together at the United Indonesia Coalition National Gathering in Makassar, Sunday (6/11/2022).
Several political parties have enjoyed increased electability in proportion to the party’s ability to mainstream its political narratives. On the flip side, political parties that have trouble mastering political narratives are less capable of attracting voters.
Kompas’ periodic survey from 25 January-4 February 2023 illustrated that political parties in the government coalition, such as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Golkar Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the United Development Party (PPP) and the NasDem Party (NasDem), still enjoy the impact of controlled political narratives. The electability of these political parties has increased, within certain limits, following the positive image of the government’s performance. As reported by Kompas daily yesterday, satisfaction with government performance has increased across all indicators in politics, law, economic development and social welfare.
The electability of the PDI-P as the ruling party behind President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Vice President Ma’ruf Amin's administration rose slightly by 1.8 percent from the October 2022 survey, reaching 22.9 percent and still ranks first. Golkar’s electability also rose by 1.1 percent and now takes third place with 9 percent of the vote. Golkar’s image is often represented by its chairman Airlangga Hartarto, who also has presidential ambitions.
Meanwhile, the electability of the Gerindra Party decreased by 1.9 percent from the previous survey and is now at 14.3 percent. Gerindra’s nomination of its chairman Prabowo Subianto as a presidential candidate seems to be the only factor holding back the decline of the party’s electability. This is based on the relatively constant coattail effect of Prabowo’s presidential candidacy.
Moreover, the proportion of Prabowo voters in Gerindra also decreased from 46 percent in the last quarter of 2022 to 42.9 percent in January 2023. The public appears to be waiting for the most ideal running mate to help increase Gerindra’s electability.
Apart from Gerindra’s slight decrease in electability, PAN and the United Indonesia Party (Perindo) also saw a slight decline compared to the previous survey as no strong political narratives had been conveyed in the last quarter amid the maneuvers of several well-known political figures. Moreover, a small number of PAN voters may have been impacted by political party shifts due to Anies Baswedan's presidential candidacy.
Shifts in voters
Presidential nominations have also become a strength for political party narratives in the last few months. NasDem’s move to back Anies Baswedan as its presidential candidate for the 2024 elections has been quite successful in gathering Anies’ supporters, who have thus far been spread across several political parties.
NasDem enjoyed the coattail effect of nominating Anies, which resulted in a spike in electability from 4.3 percent in October 2022 to 7.3 percent. A 3-percent increase in electability was unprecedented for NasDem since this survey was first conducted. Previously, the party’s electability typically fluctuated by 2-4 percent.
MARINA EKATARI
Taking place at the Nasdem Tower, Jakarta, Monday (3/10/2022), Nasdem Chairman Surya Paloh announced the Governor of DKI Jakarta Anies Baswedan as the Nasdem presidential candidate.
NasDem’s success is reflected by its ability to consolidate Anies’ supporters who were previously spread across several parties, but are now clustered in NasDem. In October 2022, the proportion of NasDem respondents who voted for Anies was only 4.6 percent. This figure has now jumped to 22.6 percent.
However, NasDem’s success comes at the cost of the electability of other parties that were formerly Anies' voter base. This is especially the case for political parties with a relatively large composition profile for Anies, such as the Democraticic Party (Democrats) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
The political parties most affected by this were the Democrats, who, in this survey, dropped 5.3 points from their electability in October 2022. The Democrats’ electability dropped to 8.7 percent from the previous 14 percent. The proportion of respondents who voted for Anies among the
Democrats decreased from 18.9 percent in 2022 to 11.3 percent in January 2023.
This means that there is a difference of 7.6 percent of Democrats’ voters who voted for Anies Baswedan and were shifting away from the party’s voter base. Apart from presidential nominations, the Democrats may also have been affected by the Corruption Eradication Commission’s (KPK) arrest of Papua Governor Lukas Enembe, who was chairman of the Regional Representatives Council (DPD) Democrats’ faction in Papua. Lukas was arrested on 10 January 2023 due to his alleged involvement in a graft case.
The PKS experienced a similar phenomenon. Compared to the proportion of PKS respondents who voted for Anies, there was a decrease from 19.9 percent in October 2022 to 17.6 percent in January 2023. PKS also saw a decline in electability from 6.3 to 4.8 percent.
Political party narratives
Nasdem, the Democrats and PKS are three political parties that have recently been touted to form a political alliance for the upcoming 2024 elections. However, despite NasDem's presidential nomination, the Democrats and PKS still seem to be in doubt and appear to be hesitant.
In addition to the aspects of personality and public appreciation, it is also worth noting political parties that have been intensively communicating recently. Even though the campaign period has not yet begun, political party figures have already made declarations and introduced their fellow cadres across many regions. At the grassroots level, PDI-P and PPP members have carried out motorized vehicle parades to celebrate the anniversary of these political parties in several areas in Central Java and Yogyakarta.
·Motorcades, although old-fashioned, have proven to be quite effective in attracting public attention, which has revived the ties between the PDI-P and PPP from the New Order era. Narratives surrounding presidential candidates, government performance and everything in between culminate in strengthening the political narrative to strengthen electability ahead of the elections. (LITBANG KOMPAS)
