There are only nine months remaining for political parties to attract voters in the 2024 election. There is not much time left.
By
KOMPAS EDITOR
·3 minutes read
KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO
Representatives of political party leaders and KPU leaders at the Determination of Political Party Numbers Participating in the 2024 General Election in the courtyard of the General Elections Commission (KPU) Office, Jakarta, Wednesday (14/12/2022).
As many as 18 political parties participating in the election that have passed verification need to take strategic steps and also continue to evaluate their strategies in order to get brilliant results on the voting day that will take place soon, namely 14 February 2024.
The Kompas survey results conducted periodically every four months show popularity, acceptability and electability of political parties are very dynamic and the strategies taken by political parties are crucial. Regarding popularity, the old parties that have seats in the House of Representatives can quickly be pursued by parties that do not have seats in the House. Even new parties in a relatively short time have skyrocketed. Conversely, there are those that are stagnant, even declining.
The results of the latest Kompas survey, in May, show, in terms of electability, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is highest-ranked at the present. However, in terms of popularity or best known, the top position is even won by the Golkar Party. Meanwhile, the most-preferred political party is the Democratic Party.
The parties that do not have seats in the House continue to overshadow parties that already have seats in the House. The popularity level of the Perindo Party, for example, amounts to 73.7 percent, slightly behind the NasDem Party with 76.7 percent. The popularity of the Crescent Star Party is 54.2 percent, continuing to pursue the Prosperous Justice Party with 60.8 percent.
KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO
Democratic Party Chairperson Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono walks to the General Election Commission (KPU) Office, Jakarta, Sunday (14/5/2023), to submit files for Submission of Candidates for Members of the People's Legislative Assembly by Political Parties participating in the 2024 Election.
The new parties still continue to boost their popularity. However, they cannot be underestimated because their popularity continues to increase. The level of popularity of the Labor Party, for example, amounts to 30.3 percent, whereas in January 2023 it was only 21.4 percent. Similarly, the Gelora Party currently has 20.4 percent, whereas in January 2023 it was only 14.7 percent.
Studies about voting behavior have been done a lot. A Columbia University study, for example, concluded the choice in the election is not based on a careful calculation of the consequences of a choice, but more influenced by the social background of voters, which is strengthened by face-to-face interactions with the personal network of voters. Meanwhile, according to research from Michigan University, the choice can be influenced by long-term factors, such as political socialization in the family, or short-term factors, namely the issue of campaign and candidates who are contesting (Political Psychology, Moh Abdul Hakim, 2021).
There is a Rational Voter Model theory that concludes voters are rational creatures who choose based on probability calculations, compare alternative choices that exist and make calculations.
Whatever strategies are being taken, what is clear is political parties must convince their voters they fight for their constituents, not only for the election, but more importantly, post-election.
