Notes on ‘Kompas’ Survey Results

The National Leadership Survey conducted in January by Kompas Research and Development (R&D) is the most comprehensive survey compared to the surveys of other polling institutions.

It brought together three interrelated things: public perception on the performance of the Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin administration, electability of political parties, and electability of presidential candidates.

Of course, the results of this survey will be read by many interested parties, especially the government, think tanks and political parties.

Satisfaction and challenge

Even though public satisfaction in the government’s performance has increased significantly from 62.1 percent in the October 2022 survey to 69.3 percent in the January 2023 survey, the government must still make many policy breakthroughs.

This is actually in line with the government's aim to leave behind a good political legacy for the next administration, and not policies that go against the people’s interests.

In the legal sector, for example, in addition to what has been disclosed by Kompas (20/2/2023), Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Mahfud M.D. is seeking to ratify the bills on asset confiscation and restricted currency this year. This is of course very significant for eradicating corruption in the executive, legislative and judiciary at both the central and regional levels.

"The biggest obstacle to the ratification of the restricted currency bill," Mahfud told a seminar in Jakarta, "is politicians at the House [of Representatives] who have different interests regarding restricted currencies in transactions."

Also read:

> Appreciation of Government Performance Increasing

> Ganjar Tops Survey while Prabowo and Anies Fluctuate

As regards empowering farmers and fishers, it is a fact that the government’s policies often harm farmers and fishers. In the case of rice, for example, when the major harvest is just around the corner, the government even approved rice imports. In addition, the government set farm gate prices for grain or rice that risks harming farmers, as they were lower than farmers' production costs.

This is an antagonistic policy (Kompas, 22/2/2023). The issue regarding the fate of small-scale fishers is also getting worse, especially when the rainy season and storms hit.

The pro-government political parties, of course, also have to communicate well so the government does not implement policies or provisions contrary to its efforts to improve the welfare of farmers and fishers.

As regards empowering farmers and fishers, it is a fact that the government’s policies often harm farmers and fishers.

Regarding the issue of creating jobs, the data show how young graduates from vocational senior high schools (SMK) are unemployed. This does not include graduates from tertiary institutions who enter the labor market every year, but very few find jobs.

From the other side, it is said that Indonesia will experience a demographic bonus, but has the quality of Indonesians increased so they can compete in finding jobs at the global level?

The government has also vowed to reduce extreme poverty to zero percent in 2024, either through socioeconomic assistance or trying to increase people’s buying power by working. This is not an easy matter.

Political parties’ electability and social capital

The results of the January Kompas survey show that the Golkar Party has surpassed the Democratic Party in electability. If we analyze this carefully, Golkar’s superiority is not due to its hard work. Golkar’s electability increased just 0.1 percentage points from 8.9 percent in October 2022 to 9 percent in January 2023. This was due more to a decline in the Democrats’ electability from 5.3 percent to 8.7 percent.

The electability of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was similar, increasing insignificantly by a mere 1.1 percentage points from 21.8 percent in October 2022 to 22.9 percent in January 2023. The PDI-P seems to be trying more to maintain its members’ loyalty rather than gathering new support from various groups, especially millennials who will be first-time voters in the 2024 simultaneous elections.

The PDI-P should have programs targeting farmers, fishers, laborers, job seekers, and micro and small businesses to increase their prestige. This is in line with the PDI-P’s motto as partaiwong cilik (grassroots party).

The Kompas R&D survey also shows how social capital alone is not enough to guarantee political parties’ electability. Not all political parties in the legislature have that luxury.

Also read:

> > Vice Presidential Candidates Become Determinant Factor

> There is Still Hope for All Presidential Candidates

One example is the National Mandate Party (PAN), which has a rather high popularity at 72.3 percent. Public approval is not too high at 40.4 percent. It has the highest potential permanent voters at 50 percent. The popularity and approval ratings of PAN chairman Zulkifli Hassan are just 21.5 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively. However, why is its electability only 1.6 percent? This is a very small figure if it wants to maintain representation in the House.

The fate of the United Development Party (PPP) is also the same as PAN’s. The PPP is the only party that has existed since the New Order era that has not had a fate as good as the PDI-P or Golkar. Its popularity is 60.6 percent, but its electability is only 38.4 percent and permanent voters of just 35.7 percent. Even sadder, the popularity and approval ratings for PPP chairman Muhammad Mardiono are just 5.5 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Kompas' conclusion that parties have sufficient social capital to survive in the House is not always correct.

The PPP's goal to increase the number of its House seats from 19 to 39 is not an easy matter. Recruiting former police generals and regional officials will not be enough without hard political work on the ground. Otherwise, the PPP will become a mere memory.

If we look at the fate of parties during the Reform era, Kompas' conclusion that parties have sufficient social capital to survive in the House is not always correct.

We see that Hanura's fate was eventual expulsion from the House. The Crescent Star Party experienced the same fate. Later, we will see whether PAN and the PPP can survive in the House or suffer the same fate as Hanura and the Crescent Star Party. Will the Perindo Party also make history as a new party that will enter the House in 2024?

Coattail effect

The Kompas R & D survey again confirmed that Ganjar Pranowo is leading as a presidential candidate. His electability is still 25.3 percent. This is interesting, because PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri has still not declared the party’s presidential candidate. This means that PDI-P voters believe that Ganjar will definitely be the PDI-P’s presidential candidate. If it turns out to not be Ganjar, it is certain that the PDI-P's electability will drop sharply to its lowest point.

The electability of Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan continues to fluctuate. In the January Kompas R&D survey, Prabowo had 18.1 percent and Anies 13.1 percent.

If we look at the current political developments, if the PDI-P forms an alliance with Gerindra and nominates Ganjar and Prabowo as their presidential and vice presidential candidates, it is not impossible they will win the first round of the elections if more than two pairs are competing.

Also read: PDI-P, Gerindra and Democrats still on Top

Ganjar might be paired with Erick Thohir if campaign funding is the main issue. However, if politics is more prominent, it is possible that the PDI-P and Golkar, as the main members of the alliance, will nominate Ganjar-Ridwan Kamil.

For NasDem, the PKS, and the Democrats, they could nominate Sandiaga Uno name as Anies' running mate. They both ran in the 2017 Jakarta election. Sandiaga also has financial capital. However, will Gerindra allow this?

Let's wait until the registration deadline for presidential and vice presidential candidates. Building an alliance is not easy and is full of risks. Therefore, don't be surprised if the PDI-P chair is still waiting for the right moment to declare its presidential and vice presidential candidates and its preferred alliance, so its political calculations don't go wrong.

KOMPAS/TRIAS KUNCAHYONO

Ikrar Nusa Bhakti

Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, Professional Expert (Taprof), Political Division, National Resilience Institute (Lemhannas)

This article was translated by Kurnia Siswo.