There is Still Hope for All Presidential Candidates
Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan still dominate the electability ratings. Ganjar’s increase in electability is quite consistent.
By
BAMBANG SETIAWAN
·6 minutes read
A year before the 2024 presidential election, the movements of expected presidential candidates are getting more intense. The declaration, coalition and the joining of figures to particular parties is the heating up of political movements. These dynamics are influential on the electability of these figures. Some are lucky, some stumble.
The results of Kompas’ periodic survey showed that even though the political intensity had started in the lead up to the presidential election, the electability potential of each permanent candidate remains quite low, below 30 percent. The increase and decrease in the potential of each figure’s selection also remains insignificant. The survey was conducted with 1,202 respondents from the 25 January to 4 February in 38 provinces, with a margin of error of 2.83 percent.
Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan still dominate the electability ratings. Ganjar’s increase in electability is quite consistent.
Ganjar's electability in the survey was 25.3 percent, increasing 2.1 percent from the survey in October 2022. Despite the increase and change in the solidity of the mass base of the party, the combined electability increase over one year was not too significant, yet this rising trend has not been experienced by Prabowo and Anies.
Prabowo's electability is now at 18.1 percent after dropping from 25.3 percent in June to 17.6 percent in October 2022. Anies' electability has fallen again, now at 13.1 percent after the previous survey recorded Kompas’ highest rating for Anies, namely 16.5 percent.
Other figures tended to stagnate or weaken. Ridwan Kamil is at 8.4 percent, almost the same as in October’s survey at 8.5 percent. The electability of most candidates under him, Sandiaga Salahuddin Uno, Andika Perkasa, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Erick Thohir, Puan Maharani, Airlangga Hartarto and others, is down. The strengthening of the government’s performance and the image of the President this time correlated with the increasingly weak choice of the community in alternative candidates.
Ganjar, Prabowo, Anies
The strengthening of Ganjar's electability is supported by changes in Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) voters. PDI-P sympathizers are increasingly solidifying their decision to choose him as a presidential candidate. In June 2022, the support of PDI-P voters for Ganjar was 40.7 percent, while in October it rose to 46.6 percent and now 54 percent.
Support for Ganjar also strengthened in Java. After reaching 26.3 percent last June, the figure rose to 28.4 percent in October 2022 and 32 percent in January. The increase in votes occurred mainly in East Java and West Java. Support for him also rose in Kalimantan, the urban mass base that chose Ganjar also strengthened.
The increase in Ganjar’s electability was also supported by the rise of the votes given by various community groups, including generation X (42-55 years), those who have basic education, lower and lower middle social classes as well as from the Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah.
Prabowo's slight increase occurred because Gerindra Party's voters returned to support the party's general chairman. Now 54.3 percent of Gerindra's supporters choose Prabowo as a presidential candidate after having dropped to 49.5 percent.
The increase in respondents' confidence in Prabowo to lead the Indonesian government has happened mainly in Bali and Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Maluku and Papua. In Java, the increase in votes mainly occurred in Banten.
Votes of Generation Z (under the age of 26 years) and generation Y (34-41 years) for Prabowo experienced a boost even though the percentage has not yet matched that of June 2022. People with mid-level education, the upper and upper-middle classes and Muhammadiyah members were the contributors.
Anies had a different experience. Decreasing electability and changes in the solidity of the party mass bases incorporated in the shifting coalition led to interesting findings. The NasDem Party, Democratic Party and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) coalition has a mass bases that differ in addressing Anies' nomination.
NasDem and Anies correlate positively. Both of them contribute to raising electability. Anies' presence raised NasDem's votes, and the support of the party's mass for Anies also increased. Anies supporters who would choose NasDem increased from 4.6 percent in October 2022 to 22.6 percent in January. At the same time, NasDem voters who then selected Anies increased from 17.3 percent to 40.4 percent.
The was different for the Democrats and the PKS. Both corelated negatively. Anies voters who chose Democrats fell from 18.9 percent to 11.3 percent, while those who chose the PKS fell from 19.9 percent to 17.6 percent.
NasDem and Anies correlate positively. Both of them contribute to raising electability.
Democrat supporters who would vote for Anies also dropped from 22.2 percent to 17 percent. PKS supporters who chose Anies dropped from 52.7 percent to 48.3 percent. Some of the votes of Democrat and PKS supporters who previously chose Anies shifted to Ridwan Kamil and Prabowo. Support for Anies also declined from the National Awakening Party (PKB), National Mandate Party (PAN), United Development Party (PPP), Gerindra and Golkar Party voters.
The attitude of the Democrats and the PKS, which was softening in the negotiations, tended to fully surrender the figure of the vice presidential candidate to Anies, possibly disappointing the sympathizers of the two parties. As for other party sympathizers, they are increasingly moving away from choosing Anies, possibly because Anies has been "owned" by three parties in the Coalition of Change.
Ridwan Kamil
Outside the three candidates with high electability, another movement came from Ridwan. The phenomenon of Ridwan and the Golkar Party is similar to what happened with Anies and NasDem: mutual benefits. The figure of Ridwan raised the votes of the Golkar Party, and the Golkar Party mass supported Ridwan's votes.
In the January 2023 survey, Ridwan voters who chose Golkar reached 13.7 percent, up from 8.7 percent in October (before Ridwan joined Golkar). On the other hand, Golkar voters who chose Ridwan also rose to 13.1 percent, from 9.5 percent in October 2022.
The results of the Kompas Research and Development (Litbang) Survey show Ganjar had benefited from the political movements that have led to sanctions. NasDem benefited as the first party to support Anies. The Democrats and the PKS stumbled due to their political decisions. Ridwan and the Golkar Party received blessings from the merging of the two. (KOMPAS LITBANG)