Vice Presidential Candidates Become Determinant Factor

KOMPAS

The map of competition for the cawapres position in the 2024 election is expected to be fierce. The four dominant names are Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), Erick Thohir, Ridwan Kamil and Sandiaga Uno.

Tight competition among presidential candidates ahead of the 2024 election has opened the opportunity for vice presidential candidates, who are considered not only able to make up for the presidential candidates’ weaknesses, but also help strengthen the basis of their electability.

Indications of the increasing importance of the presidential candidate pairing was implied in the results of the Kompas Research and Development Periodic Survey on 25 January-4 February 2023. The competition, mapped based on the proportion of public electability for the top three figures in the survey, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan, was classified as competitive. This time, Ganjar still occupies the top position, followed later by Prabowo and Anies.

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However, if examined further, the proportion of votes achieved by each of the presidential candidates selected by respondents in the survey does not guarantee dominance, because the public has not significantly concentrated on one of the presidential candidates. The survey results suggest that not one of the three figures is currently able to reach above the potential threshold of victory. For Ganjar who is in top position, for example, the public support he has garnered is still below one third (25.3 percent). Even though the survey results this time showed the distance between his nearest competitor has widened, it is very early to say that he dominates the competition.

The lack of the public’s concentration on one presidential candidate opens up opportunities for the existence of the presidential pair, namely the vice presidential candidates. The vice president is increasingly decisive because the figures and their political position are no longer merely complementary, or just the necessity of nomination in the election. Nor are they only limited to eliminating the potential weakness inherent in the presidential candidates. On this political map, the vice presidential candidates also became political determinants. With such a position, vice presidential candidates also contribute as vote getters, expanding the base of support.

Ten figures

Referring to the results of the most recent survey, there are at least 10 political figures seen by the public to be vice presidents for the three top presidential candidates for public referrals. The 10 figures come from a variety of political backgrounds and power. It could be that the figures had been the leaders of political parties, the holders of the presidential nomination ticket, cabinet ministers, regional heads or those with a military background, among other experiences. This combination of various backgrounds has more value.

As an illustration, if Ganjar is seated as a presidential candidate, for some members of the public, figures with the background of regional heads, such as Ridwan Kamil, Anies or Khofifah Indar Parawansa, are considered worthy of being the running mate. There are also ministers with military backgrounds, such as Prabowo, or ministers with the backgrounds as entrepreneurs, such as Sandiaga Uno, Erick Thohir or Airlangga Hartarto, who are worthy of being paired. Even, political figures from the same party, Puan Maharani, or the chairperson of the Democratic Party, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, are also suitable. From every figure who was nominated by the public as Ganjar's ideal partner, this time round Ridwan was the most chosen.

KOMPAS/HAS/RON

(left to right) Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, Anies Baswedan. Three names are at the top of a Kompas survey for national leadership.

In another view, if Prabowo or Anies become a presidential candidate, the configuration of figures who deserve to be paired as their deputies are not too different. The 10 vice presidential candidates referred to earlier were also deemed feasible and would strengthen the expansion of public support for Prabowo and Anies. However, of all the figures nominated as vice presidential candidates, there are variations of choices.

For Prabowo, for example, the figure of Ganjar is the most competitive alternative choice for vice presidential candidate. In a pair with Ganjar is considered more relevant to Prabowo because the potential characteristics of this couple would become broader in terms of demographic, social, economic and political issues.

Also read:

> Prabowo, Ganjar, Anies Still Dominant

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Besides Ganjar, some of the public still miss the Prabowo and Sandi duet. The success of this couple to win 44.5 percent of the votes in the 2019 presidential election is capital that cannot be underestimated. Moreover, the two figures have been integrated into the Cabinet of President Jokowi's administration. Likewise, alternatives to be paired with other figures for Prabowo are no less competitive, such as Ridwan, Erick, Puan, Airlangga and Khofifah.

As for Anies, his nomination as president opened up opportunities for the presence of vice presidential candidates from various backgrounds with promising electability. There are at least three figures with the highest electability, namely Ganjar, Sandi and Ridwan. In addition, there are several party leaders, such as Agus Yudhoyono, Puan, and Airlangga, who still have potential.

Interestingly, there has been a change in the amount of support of a number of vice presidential candidates who were nominated. Compared with the October 2022 survey, figures such as Ridwan, Sandi, Erick, Agus, Puan and Airlangga are increasing their electability position as vice presidential candidates. This increase in support shows the increasingly diverse alternative choice, in addition to the increasing political position of each figure. (KOMPAS LITBANG DIVISION)

This article was translated by Hyginus Hardoyo