Ganjar Tops Survey while Prabowo and Anies Fluctuate
A Kompas Litbang survey in January 2023 found that Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan continue to emerge as potential presidential front-runners.
Hasil Survei Charta Politika Tempatkan Ganjar, Anies, Prabowo Tiga Teratas
JAKARTA, KOMPAS – With the 2024 presidential election a year away, three names have consistently topped electability surveys. Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is currently in the lead, while Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan follow behind.
Amid these circumstances, a number of factors can influence electability, such as the certainty of a nomination, running mates and a battle of ideas among prospective candidates.
The results of a survey by Kompas Litbang, the research arm of Kompas daily, in January 2023 showed the electability of these three figures continues to fluctuate. Ganjar is in the lead with 25.3 percent in electability, followed by Prabowo with 18.1 percent and Anies with 13.1 percent.
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Ganjar’s electability has increased over the past year according to the Kompas periodic survey. In January 2022, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician’s electability stood at 20.5 percent, which rose to 22 percent in June, then 23.2 percent in October. Meanwhile, Prabowo and Anies have seen their electability fluctuate over the past year. Prabowo had a wide gap ahead of Anies, before the latter caught up, then slipped away again.
Prabowo, chairman of the Gerindra Party, had an electability of 26.5 percent in January 2022, which fell to 25.3 percent in June, then 17.6 percent in October. Meanwhile, Anies’ electability amounted to 16.5 percent in October 2022, the highest in the past year. Previously, Anies’ electability amounted to 14.2 and 12.6 percent in January 2022 and June respectively.
Clever people
When asked to comment on his increasing electability over the past year, Ganjar was reluctant. He preferred to focus on carrying out his duties as a regional head. “I will concentrate on dealing with inflation, cooking oil and rice because these [are matters] that need attention,” he said when contacted last weekend.
PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said PDI-P believed people were clever enough to know why PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri had yet to nominate a presidential candidate for the upcoming race. The reason is that there are more important matters at hand, such as helping people overcome the impact of the pandemic and a global geopolitical crisis.
According to Hasto, the electability of his party cadres had increased due to the regeneration of the party’s leadership. However, when it comes to national leaders, decision-making is based on the qualities of a leader, track record, achievements, courage to take risks, professional skills and vision for the future
If at this time the Kompas [survey] records fluctuating numbers, it doesn’t matter.
“Surveys only capture a snapshot of perceptions over a limited period. They are dynamic and cannot be used as a benchmark. Will electability ratings be taken into account? Ibu Megawati will be the one to make in-depth considerations as she was given the mandate in the congress to make this decision,” he said.
Spokesman for Anies Baswedan, Hendri Satrio, also deemed the fluctuations in Anies’ electability a natural occurrence. Electability trends will always fluctuate until the General Elections Commission (KPU) officially announces the candidates running for president. “If at this time the Kompas [survey] records fluctuating numbers, it doesn’t matter. After all, our internal surveys painted more optimistic pictures,” he said.
In the year leading up to voting day, Anies will continue to address the public and communicate his successes as Jakarta governor and other positions. The ideas he is championing include, among others, social justice, equality in development and a more-united Indonesia, so its people will prosper.
Chairman of the Nasdem Party Surya Paloh (right) with the presidential candidate from the Nasdem Party Anies Baswedan.
NasDem Party central executive board (DPP) chairman Effendy Choirie suggested that the decline in Anies’ electability was due to people that did not support him. As if, Choirie continued, all of Anies’ kindness was overshadowed by one thing. NasDem is not too concerned about it, however. NasDem believes that in the future, people’s hearts will be moved by Anies’ track record in making changes to this country.
“Anies has big ideas and he is committed to furthering President Jokowi’s administration. What more could we want? There are concerns that the capital city relocation will be discontinued, but Anies already said he would push for it to become law,” said Choirie.
Anies has big ideas and he is committed to furthering President Jokowi’s administration. What more could we want?
Meanwhile, Gerindra central executive board (DPP) chairman Prasetyo Hadi appreciated the results of the Litbang Kompas survey. According to him, Prabowo’s electability had increased because the public witnessed his performance as defense minister. However, Prasetyo continued, this achievement would not make Gerindra complacent.
Prabowo will continue to focus on the tasks assigned by the President. Likewise, Gerindra cadres will also continue to address the people. According to Prasetyo, popularity was not all it took to become a leader. Leaders must be able to work and understand problems to address in the future.
Influencing variables
Charta Politika Indonesia executive director Yunarto Wijaya explained the three names consistently emerging in last year’s survey could not be separated from the framework that underlies the 2024 presidential election, namely that it is a continued battle from the 2014 and 2019 elections. In the end, prospective candidates with the highest electability can be narrowed down to a figure that is very similar to Jokowi, who has the same vision, mission and focus on sustainability, and a figure deemed the antithesis of Jokowi, who is looking for a change.
“Because of this framework, Ganjar and Anies continue to emerge in the top three. Meanwhile, Prabowo is still a strong contender due to his electoral investments in the last two elections,” he said.
According to him, variables that could change the current electability constellation include, among others, the political contest of ideas, visions and missions. In this way, Ganjar voters can be made aware of Anies’ and Prabowo’s views on leading the country. If a battle of ideas begins to emerge among these figures, voters may have other preferences in their vote.
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If a battle of ideas occurs, he continued, voters could test the track record of these presidential hopefuls. Supporters would initiate negative campaigns to expose a candidate’s weaknesses, either through their experience in office, social life or previous election campaigns.
On the other hand, according to Yunarto, Ganjar’s certainty of becoming a presidential candidate could also be a deciding factor in this constellation. This is because Ganjar has not explicitly voiced his candidacy even though his party, the ruling PDI-P, can nominate him without forming an alliance.
“Running mates can also be a very decisive factor because each presidential candidate needs a complementary partner that can make up for their weaknesses,” he added.
This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia.
