Modi, the Privilege of Power, and His Tactics for Winning India's Elections

PM Modi grasps the privilege of power and capitalizes on it through providing social assistance to win elections in India.

AP PHOTO/ALTAF QADRI

Voters lined up to exercise their right to vote at a polling station in Chennai, Tamil Nadu State, India, on Friday (19/4/2024).

Raj Sud is now 94 years old. In his almost century-long life, he has exercised his right to vote in nearly every election held after India gained independence. He is one of the living witness to India's important journey as the largest democracy in the world.

Sud will once again exercise his right to vote along with around 970 million other Indian citizens in the upcoming elections. The democratic party in his country has begun on Friday (19/4/2024). Sud already knows the candidate he will choose.

"I really like Modi," she said, referring to the incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. "Modi works with honesty. He does a great job and wants to make this entire country truly beautiful."

Not only Sud admires Modi. Young voters also have similar thoughts despite some criticism and concerns. Abhishek Dhotre (22), a student at the University of Mumbai, admitted that he was unhappy with the tension that often arises between the majority and minority. However, he is pleased with the level of economic growth achieved by his country under the Modi administration.

Dhotre wants Modi and his supporting party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to win again in the elections. "With the current development, infrastructure and everything that is happening, I prefer the current government to stay in power," Dhotre said.

Similarly, Thrishalini Dwaraknath (20) said the same thing. She praised Modi and BJP's achievements during their reign. However, her criticism is that the Modi government needs to do more to help the millions of unemployed Indian youth find employment.

AFP/NOAH SEELAM

Young unemployed people fill out forms to get jobs in the private sector outside a van that serves as a job field, initiated by the TMI foundation and the Hyderabad city police in Hyderabad, India, on August 15, 2021.

For 200 million young voters, their future is a big question mark. According to the Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy, the unemployment rate was more than 7 percent in March 2024. Citing the Unemployment in India Report 2024 by the Institute for Human Development/International Labor Organization, media editorial The Hindu writes that the youth unemployment rate is almost 83 percent of the unemployed workforce. Even more worrying, the proportion of unemployed young people with secondary or higher education has almost doubled: from 35.2 percent in 2000 to 65.7 percent in 2022.

Also read: Modi Plans for India to Rise to a Class to Become a Developed Country in the Next 25 Years

"I am aware of the need to have a stable job and I will look at the track record and plans of each party before deciding who to vote for," said Manya Sachdev (22), a student.

AP/MANISH SWARUP

Manya Sachdev, a computer science student, speaks with the Associated Press news agency during an interview about key issues in India's elections in New Delhi, India, March 29, 2024.

The potential victory of Modi and BJP cannot be separated from the disharmony among opposition parties. Ajay Jasra (56), a professional worker in the service industry, stated that the opposition is completely paralyzed and not at all doing their job of correcting government policies.

”Abki baar 400 paar”

Based on a survey, support for the Modi government ranges from 75-80 percent. However, this has not satisfied Modi. He and the BJP and National Democratic Alliance are targeting to gain control of 400 seats out of 543 seats in parliament, up from 353 seats in the 2019 elections. The BJP is targeting to win 370 seats, up from their previous win of 303 seats.

“Abki baar 400 paar,” Modi said in the local language. This means that it is time for us to exceed 400 seats.

In the history of Indian elections, only the Congress Party's vote count in the 1984 election reached that 400-seat mark. Now, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, the Congress Party is in opposition and is predicted to not be able to do much.

AP/SAURABH DAS

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks at the commemoration of India's Independence Day in New Delhi, India, August 15, 2014.

Observers assess that there are several factors that make voters confident in choosing Modi and his party again, despite many issues such as escalating communal disputes and the authoritarian tendencies advocated by many human rights activists.

Also read: India Will Become the Third Strongest Economy

According to Milan Vaisnaf, the South Asia Program Director at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, as incumbents, Modi and BJP have the privileged power to increase their influence on marginalized groups. Quoting data from the Pew Research Center, Vaisnaf said that these groups include more than 40 percent of India's population.

As incumbents, Modi and the BJP have the privilege of increasing their influence on marginalized sections of society.

The data on support from marginalized community groups used by Vaisnaf comes from the Lokniti Program for Comparative Democracy. In the 2009 elections, BJP only received support from 22 percent of those groups.

In the 2014 election, their support for BJP rose to 30 percent. Their support further improved in 2019 when BJP and Modi were estimated to receive support of more than 40 percent.

Disbursement of social assistance

One way to win the hearts and minds of voters in the marginalized community category is by providing various assistance that can immediately be felt in its impact. The forms vary, ranging from gas distribution, development of sanitary facilities that meet health standards, provision of electricity connections for residents' homes, educational assistance, to direct cash aid.

The data used by Vaisnaf states that the central government transferred cash amounting to 73.7 billion rupees (1.2 billion US dollars or approximately 14.3 trillion Rupiahs) to around 108 million beneficiaries in 2013-2014. In 2019-2020, the figure increased significantly to 2.4 trillion rupees (34 billion dollars or equivalent to 466 trillion Rupiahs) in cash to more than 700 million beneficiaries.

The cash aid is directly sent to the beneficiaries' accounts to prevent leakage. This method is considered effective in influencing voter behavior.

AFP/IDREES MOHAMMED

A voter is carrying their child while waiting for their turn to cast their vote in the Indian elections at a polling station in Dugeli Village, Chhattisgarh State, India, on April 19, 2024.

Apart from the internal factors above, citizens also think that the Modi government has brought India to the global stage in a better way which has had an impact on the Indian economy. Aparna Pande, Director of the Washington-based Hudson Institute's India and South Asia Future Initiative, said that over at least the last five years, India's position in global politics has steadily improved.

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As a country that was once colonized and one of the founders of the non-aligned movement, India becomes the heart of the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy in the midst of their efforts to face aggressive China. India reaps many benefits in terms of economy and even military from the strategic competition between the US and China.

Strategic autonomy

At the same time, India also wants to pursue its own political policies and not be seen as a mere "follower". Despite viewing China as a competitor, New Delhi also collaborates with Beijing and other "strategic rivals" like Russia through BRICS. This strategic autonomy is evidenced by India's "neutral" stance on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which was condemned by the US and its allies.

From those choices of attitude, India gained economic benefits by buying Russian oil below market prices. This action was regretted by the US, but India didn't care. Pande assessed that under the Modi government, India's reputation has been soaring. "Good years for India (in the global arena)," he said.

AP PHOTO/POOL/EVELYN HOCKSTEIN

In the front row, the Chairperson of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen (center), is holding hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and US President Joe Biden (right) at the G20 Summit's Cooperation on Global Infrastructure and Investment Forum in New Delhi, India on September 9, 2023.

Nirupama Rao, former Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs and former Indian Ambassador to the US and China, as quoted on the Wilson Center page, called the foreign policy philosophy adopted by Modi as Vishnamitra which means "friend to the world". The approach taken by Modi, said Rao, is to make India a bridge for multilateralism, including for Southern countries.

"For India, strategic autonomy means independence in policy making based on national interests while always considering issues of security, safety, national interests, and social and economic development of the country. This is to ensure that India's progress towards becoming an advanced nation in the next two and a half decades is guaranteed," said Rao.

Impact to the East?

India's desire to strengthen relations with global players on the international political map in the Modi era is not too different from previous eras, including the era of PM PV Narashima Rao in the 1990s. If at that time Rao echoed the look east policy, Modi echoed the concept of act east policy.

If in the past it was only about exploring opportunities, in the era of Modi, the Indian Government wants to be more involved in activities in the region, especially to gain opportunities that drive the growth of its economy.

AFP

Employees work in the car assembly department at the Renault Nissan Automotive India factory in Oragadam, the industrial area of Chennai, India, on March 27th, 2024.

However, according to Calvin Khoe, the Director of Research and Analysis at the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia (FPCI), when met in Jakarta on Thursday (18/4/2024), India's presence compared to other major economies in Southeast Asia is very moderate. In fact, in a survey conducted by FPCI in 2023, Southeast Asian countries bordering India did not feel India's presence.

Also read: Metamorphosis of Indian Policy in Southeast Asia

Calvin exemplified a highway project connecting three countries, namely India, Thailand, and Myanmar, which has been ongoing for two decades. On the Myanmar and Thailand sides, the infrastructure is already prepared. However, as of now, on the Indian side, it is not yet ready.

"In India's view, ASEAN is not considered a strategic partner," said Calvin.

He believes that ASEAN centrality is seen as an obstacle for India to compete with countries in the region. What will be India's main concern, according to Calvin, is the South Asian region itself and continuing their desire to become the leader of the "Southern" countries.

However, it will not be easy for India. Data quoted by The Economist and the Pardee Center for International Futures (PCIF) shows that China is seen as having a strong influence in many countries, especially developing countries. and the poor, thanks to major projects through the Belt and Road Initiative scheme. India, according to the data, is in second place.

KOMPAS/MAHDI MUHAMMAD

Syed Akbaruddin, Dean of the Kautilya School of Public Policy and former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations, explained on Monday (13/2/2023) about the India-ASEAN connectivity through the land route, which involves the construction of a trilateral highway between India, Myanmar, and Thailand.

The number of India's embassies in Africa increased from 25 to 43 between 2012 and 2022. India offers its "stack" of digital platforms, including biometric identity technology, to countries such as Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, and Sri Lanka.

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Pande assessed that when faced with China, India has the upper hand in its influence in South Asia, its own environment. India is a leading provider of development aid and security assistance to all of its neighboring countries in the region. Since 1947, India's cumulative development aid to this region has exceeded US$100 billion, with a third of it being disbursed in just the last 10 years.

However, according to Pande, in the upcoming government, India will still focus on countering China's influence in South Asia, especially to ensure its goal of becoming a major world economy is achieved. Influence on the region will still be maintained, even if only limited to countries that recognize its existence and pay attention to India's interests. (AP)