The Constitutional Court's Decision, Jokowi's Direction of Support, and East Java Can Be Decisive

Ganjar and Prabowo's competitive electability levels mean that their candidate for vice presidential candidate can be decisive. In this case, the Constitutional Court's decision regarding the age limit for presidential and vice presidential candidates and the direction of Jokowi's support is quite influential.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Putusan MK, Arah Dukungan Jokowi, dan Jawa Timur Bisa Menentukan

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

The upcoming presidential and vice presidential election, which is only four months away, was the theme of a mural in a alley in Cibuluh area, Bogor City on Friday (6/10/2023). The registration for presidential and vice presidential candidates will take place from October 19 to November 25, 2023. Currently, three potential presidential candidates have narrowed down to three names, namely Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, and Prabowo Subianto.

• With a fairly competitive level of electability, the determination of the vice presidential candidates for Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto will affect the vote acquisition.
• In determining the vice presidential candidate, the Constitutional Court's decision, the direction of Jokowi's support, will be decisive.
• East Java, with 15 percent of voters there, is also a determining factor.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - Although vice presidential candidates may have a say, there are several other factors that will determine the situation surrounding the registration of presidential and vice-presidential candidates on October 19. These factors include the influence of East Java, where 15 percent of the votes are located and is the base of the Nahdlatul Ulama, the direction of support from President Joko Widodo, and the Constitutional Court's decision regarding the age limit for presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

Until now, only prospective presidential candidate Anies R Baswedan has been accompanied by the prospective vice presidential candidate, namely Muhaimin Iskandar, who is also the General Chair of the National Awakening Party. The two other presidential candidates, Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo, have not yet announced who will be their running mates as vice presidential candidates.

Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia Hanta Yuda in his presentation on the survey and discussion "The Strength of Electoral Politics Towards the Registration of 2024 Presidential and Vice Presidential Candidates" which was held online by Poltracking Indonesia, Saturday (7/10/2023) , reveals that the vice presidential variable is quite important. Although, he continued, based on the results of the latest Poltracking survey carried out on 3-9 September 2023, the presence of a vice presidential candidate is considered not to provide significant additional voters because it will only increase by 2-3 percent.

Also read: The Three Suns of Politics “Battlefield”

Competitive electability

However, according to Hanta, the number is still important to take into account because Ganjar's and Prabowo's level of electability is highly competitive. In the latest Poltracking survey, it was found that Prabowo's electability was 38.9%, Ganjar's was 37.0%, and Anies' was 19.9%, while approximately 4.2% chose not to answer or did not know yet. Thus, the difference between Prabowo and Ganjar is about 4%.

That is also why, according to Hanta, Prabowo and Ganjar have not yet determined their potential vice presidential candidates. "If they make a mistake in choosing a vice presidential candidate, it could potentially be a blunder," he said.

KOMPAS/IQBAL BASYARI

Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia Hanta Yuda.

Hanta then said that another possibility is that both presidential candidates have not yet decided on their running mate because they are still waiting for the decision of the Constitutional Court (MK) regarding the testing of Article 169 Letter q of Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections (UU Pemilu) regarding the age limit for presidential and vice presidential candidates. In this regard, Hanta linked it to Surakarta Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of President Joko Widodo, who has recently been rumored to be a potential running mate for Prabowo.

"They may still be waiting for further developments regarding Mas Gibran (Rakabuming Raka) from the Constitutional Court," he said.

Volunteer political machine

On the other hand, according to Hanta, the direction of Jokowi's support must still be taken into account as a factor in boosting the electability of prospective presidential candidates. The high level of satisfaction of the public towards the Jokowi-Ma'ruf Amin government, considering that Jokowi has won the presidential election twice, and the political machine consisting of volunteers, as well as the tendency of political parties to align themselves with Jokowi, are factors that demonstrate the importance of Jokowi's support direction.

The direction of Jokowi's support still needs to be taken into consideration as a factor that can boost the electability of the presidential candidate.

Also read: Anies meets Jusuf Kalla to discuss strategies for winning the presidential election

Still related to Jokowi, the testing of the minimum age limit for a potential vice presidential candidate in the Constitutional Court has also become a new variable that must be carefully considered. "If Gibran becomes a potential vice presidential candidate, then Jokowi's body will surely be there," said Hanta.

Professor of Social and Political Science at Airlangga University, Kacung Marijan, also expressed a similar view. According to him, even though political parties have grouped into three axes, it doesn't mean that change is impossible. Several factors that could affect the political map of the 2024 election include the ongoing age limit test for presidential and vice-presidential candidates in the Constitutional Court, which could be granted or rejected. Another factor is the direction of Jokowi's support, which still holds significant influence.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Anies Baswedan, a potential presidential candidate (pictured right), and his running mate Muhaimin Iskandar, were in a meeting to build relationships with officials of the Coalition of Change at the headquarters of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in Jakarta on Tuesday (12/9/2023). Anies-Muhaimin, who are supported by the Coalition of Change along with the leadership of the National Awakening Party and the Nasdem Party, paid a visit to the PKS headquarters as part of their political outreach. These three parties are the remaining members of the Coalition of Change after the Democratic Party withdrew.

East Java is increasingly important

On the other hand, East Java has become increasingly important as it represents about 15% of voters and is the main base for the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) organization. When an NU figure from East Java is selected as a candidate for Vice President, it is considered to have a double impact on NU members spread across many provinces, such as Central Java, West Java, South Kalimantan, Lampung, North Sumatra, and South Sulawesi.

Another factor that can change the contestation is certain events that can affect the perception of voters, such as economic or legal events that affect a particular faction. "For voters who are still floating or have not decided on their choice, they will see the rationality of the programs offered during the campaign," said Kacung.

Also read: "Kompas" R&D Survey: SBY Goes Down the Mountain, Prabowo Floods with Supporters?

On this occasion, Professor of Political Psychology at the University of Indonesia, Hamdi Muluk, believes that politics in Indonesia is dominated by a pragmatic attitude. This is because what is discussed in the contest leading up to the election is not related to platforms, ideologies, traditions, and political culture, but rather a competition of popularity between the potential presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

"The difference lies in individual popularity or capitalizing on something personal in nature. For example, people perceive this (candidate) as good, popular with the masses, and well-liked by others. And that, of course, is sharpened by survey institutions," said Hamdi.

Therefore, according to Hamdi, various analyses that consider factors such as the absence of incumbents, the Jokowi effect, and the narrative of change as Jokowi's antithesis ultimately lead to rational and pragmatic calculations. Thus, tinkering with the potential vice presidential candidates, which is still not final, both in the Prabowo and Ganjar camps, is nothing more than considering which one has a greater chance of winning.

Similarly, on the side of the voters, according to Hamdi, there are not many Indonesian people who understand and comprehend the vision and mission of a vice-presidential candidate. For them, popularity is more of a consideration in determining their leader candidate.