Ganjar in the Lead, Prabowo Stands a Chance, Anies Inches Closer

KOMPAS/HAS/RON

Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan

In the 2024 presidential election, presidential- and vice presidential-candidate pairs are nominated by a political party, or a group of political parties, that have obtained at least 20 percent of seats at the House of Representatives or at least 25 percent of the popular vote in the previous election. According to this scheme as well as the distribution of House seats gained during the 2019 election, a maximum of four presidential and vice presidential-candidate pairs can be formed for the upcoming race.

If the Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) decides to make a nomination without forming an alliance with other parties, then the remaining number of seats can form three more candidate pairs. Based on the trend that alliances are being formed, although they can still change, other candidate pairs could be dominated by the Gerindra Party (Gerindra) and National Awakening Party (PKB) alliance; the alliance between Golkar Party (Golkar), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP), known as the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB); as well as the alliance between NasDem Party (Nasdem), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the Democratic Party (Democrats). However, it is not yet clear how many candidate pairs will contest the 2024 presidential election.

The public has already shown tendencies to favor three figures for the country’s highest office, namely Central Java Ganjar Pranowo, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan. Thus far, only Prabowo and Anies have declared their ambitions to run for president. Meanwhile, Ganjar, a leading candidate, still awaits approval from his party’s chairwoman, though he has signaled that he was willing to be nominated.

Also read:

> Ganjar at the Peak, Anies Climbs

> Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies Remain in the Top Three

The presidential nomination process can still change, but it will not be impossible for the three figures to face off during the contest. The chances of Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies when competing against each other were mapped in the latest Litbang Kompas (the research arm of Kompas daily) survey conducted on 24 September-7 October 2022.

If only two candidate pairs contested, what were Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies’ chances to be elected?

Simulations done through the surveys showed that Ganjar would win if he goes head-to-head with Prabowo. However, the votes would be balanced if he went against Anies. Anies’ increasing strength is enough to make changes to current political constellations.

KOMPAS/HAS/RON

Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan

If he only competed against Prabowo, Ganjar would obtain around 52.9 percent of the vote, while Prabowo would obtain 47.1 percent. Although it seems like a small difference, this difference is quite significant as it is above the margin of error for this study, at ±2.8 percent. Ganjar’s victory this time reflects a reverse in his defeat against Prabowo in the previous two surveys. In January 2022, Ganjar would lose to Prabowo by a margin of 4.4 percent. This difference grew smaller in June 2022 (2.2 percent), until Ganjar finally won by a margin of 5.8 percent in October.

Ganjar would also obtain more votes in a race against only Anies. He would obtain 52.8 percent of the vote while Anies would obtain 47.2 percent. However, with only a difference of 5.6 percent, Ganjar’s electability is not yet secure because it is possible that the actual votes he would obtain would be 50 percent, considering a sampling error margin of 2.8 percent. Anies has been able to narrow the distance between his losses against Ganjar in the last three months. In June 2022, their gap was still 7.6 percent.

Anies has also managed to narrow the distance with Prabowo. Gradually, the electability gap between the two figures is growing smaller. In January, Anies obtained 38.9 percent of the vote while Prabowo obtained 61.1 percent. This 22.2-percent difference then decreased to 13.6 percent in June 2022. Now, with only a difference of 4.2 percent, it is hard to say that Prabowo is far ahead of Anies in this second head-to-head fight.

Supporting capital

Prospective voters in the upcoming elections who voted for Joko Widodo-Ma’ruf Amin in the 2019 election are likely going to support Ganjar. Votes for Ganjar amounted to 68.4 percent if he only contested against Anies.

On the other hand, those who voted for Prabowo-Sandiaga Uno are even more likely to vote for Anies, at 75.1 percent. However, Ganjar has also benefited from the support of groups that abstained from voting in the last election, so 63.8 percent of this group would vote for Ganjar.

KOMPAS/HAS/RON

Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan

Votes given by Jokowi supporters to Ganjar would have a relatively similar proportion if Ganjar only faced off against Prabowo, at about 69.4 percent. Meanwhile, 73.4 percent of Prabowo-Sandiaga supporters voting for Prabowo would amount to 73.4 percent.

A contest between Prabowo and Anies has its own uniqueness since they compete in the same niche. Votes of Jokowi supporters would be split almost equally among Prabowo and Anies, with no significant difference. Prabowo would obtain 51.2 percent while Anies would obtain 48.8 percent of votes.

Also read:

> Doing Politics for the People

> Challenging Period

Likewise, votes of Prabowo-Sandiaga supporters were split in a similar proportion to Jokowi’s supporters, with 51.2 percent in favor of Prabowo and 48.8 percent in favor of Anies. However, Prabowo is thus far benefiting most by voters who abstained from voting in the last election, as they lean toward him.

Abstention

Presidential elections where only two candidate pairs are contesting can affect the exercise of voting rights, especially if there is a large group of prospective voters who feel that they are not represented by the nominated candidates. This was seen in the face-to-face simulations between Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies.

If there were only two candidates, namely Ganjar and Prabowo, 8.9-14.5 percent of voters could potentially abstain from voting. This potential increases to 10.9-16.5 percent if the contest was only between Ganjar and Anies. If only Prabowo and Anies compete, the potential for voter abstention increases even further, to 12.2-17.8 percent.

Jokowi voters in the 2019 election are the most likely to abstain from voting if the contest is only between Prabowo and Anies. The figure is predicted to reach 15.8-21.4 percent. Meanwhile, for groups that abstained from voting in the last election or have not yet cast their ballots, as many as a quarter of them may also not exercise their voting rights in the upcoming election. (LITBANG KOMPAS)

This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia.