Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies Remain in the Top Three

A survey released by Litbang Kompas, in October 2022, showed that Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan still have the highest electability ratings among presidential hopefuls.

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

Ganjar Pranowo

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - The formal registration of presidential and vice-presidential candidates for the 2024 election is a year away and the competition between presidential hopefuls grows increasingly heated. Among the figures consistently occupying the top three positions, namely Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, not one has dominated in terms of electability. It is challenging for figures who are strongly associated with a certain voter base to earn votes from outside their traditional base.

The increasingly fierce competition between potential presidential candidates was reflected in a Litbang Kompas survey conducted in October 2022. Ganjar Pranowo placed first, overtaking Prabowo, with an electability rating of 23.2 percent. This figure is higher compared to the previous two surveys, namely in January (20.5 percent) and June (22 percent). Prabowo’s electability, which had previously consistently been in the lead, has now dropped. In October, he placed second with a rating of 17.6 percent. He achieved ratings of 26.5 percent and 25.3 percent in January and June respectively.

Meanwhile, Anies Baswedan’s electability is on the rise as well; however, he maintains the third spot. The results of the October survey reported that Anies’ electability rating was 16.5 percent. In January, his rating was 14.2 percent, which then dropped to 12.6 percent in June. Aside from the fact that these figures are still dynamic, it is also a tight competition, considering that the ratings are not too far apart.

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Of the three figures, two have received support from political parties. Prabowo, who is also the chairman of the Gerindra Party (Gerindra), declared his candidacy last August. Gerindra can now also make a nomination after forming an alliance with the National Awakening Party (PKB).

Law No. 7/2017 concerning the elections stipulates that to nominate a presidential candidate, political parties must either hold at least 20 percent of seats at the House of Representatives or have gained 25 percent of the popular vote in the previous election.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Anies Baswedan

Meanwhile, the NasDem Party (Nasdem) announced its support for Anies in early October. However, the party must join forces with other political parties to meet the presidential threshold. NasDem has communicated with other parties, including the Democratic Party (Democrats) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

As for Ganjar, a member of the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), none of the party members have been allowed to speak about the 2024 presidential race. The PDI-P is the only party that can nominate a presidential and vice-presidential candidate without having to form an alliance, as the party already holds the number of House seats required.

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Last week, Ganjar admitted that he was stuck in two realities. First is the political reality where, as a PDI-P cadre, he must comply with party rules. Then, there is also the social reality reflected by various electability survey results, which show that the public sees him as a potential presidential candidate. In response to the Litbang Kompas survey results, at the time, Ganjar expressed his gratitude but made no further comment.

Ganjar only emphasized that he is still focused on governing Central Java. After all, he said, the PDI-P’s presidential nomination lies in the hands of chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri. “That is my respect for the PDI-P,” he said when contacted last week.

KOMPAS/HENDRA A SETYAWAN

Prabowo Subianto

No dominance

Researcher from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) political research center, Wasisto Raharjo Jati, agreed that the competition between Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies is tight because no figure is dominant over the others. This is because each figure represents different characteristics of voters, namely in terms of demographics, age and the civil-military dichotomy.

In the absence of a dominant figure, said Wasisto, one thing that a potential presidential candidate can do to boost their votes is to take votes from other bases. However, this is a challenging thing to do because of the striking differences in each figure’s characteristics. It is also difficult for supporting political parties to do the same because each party already possesses a strong unique identity.

For that, at least two things need to be optimized to attract a different voter base. One involves the role of volunteers at the grassroots. “Besides that, we must also have a vice-presidential candidate that is complementary to every presidential candidate,” said Wasisto.

Already narrowed down

Nasdem’s central executive board chairman Willy Aditya said that the consistent emergence of the three figures in the lead reflects that the public has already narrowed down their choices. Thus, Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies’ electability ratings will always be in tight competition. If the three later contest the 2024 presidential race, he predicts that the real battle will be just as fierce.

As a party that has already declared its support for Anies as a presidential candidate in 2024, NasDem already has a strategy to win. However, much work needs to be done as the party must still build an alliance with other political parties. Additionally, they must also take into account Anies’ internal team, since he is not a NasDem cadre.

Gerindra deputy chairman Budisatrio Djiwandono said that the party will take into account Prabowo’s decline in electability. However, the survey results can still change as the formal registration period for the 2024 presidential election participants is slated for October 2023. He believes that Prabowo’s ratings can still increase in that time, especially since he is currently still focused on his duties as defense minister. He added that Gerindra and Prabowo himself have ample experience from contesting three presidential races, which have always been competitive.

Electoral issues will follow and political parties will certainly make their evaluations based on an existing track record

Ahead of 2024, Gerindra also continues to prepare itself as the competition is also predicted to be tough. One way is by strengthening the party structure, at the central, regional and district/city levels. “We believe our strength is at the grassroots. For that, we continue to strengthen [our party] structure down to the lowest level,” he said.

Besides Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies, there are also four other figures with electability ratings above 2 percent, namely West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil (8.5 percent), Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno (2.5 percent), Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Gen. Andika Perkasa (2.3 percent) and Democrats chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhyono (AHY) (2.2 percent). Of these four, only Ridwan Kamil saw a sudden increase in his electability, from 3.4 percent in June to 8.5 percent in October.

Ridwan Kamil appreciated the results of the survey. In addition to a reflection of societal dynamics, to him, the results also served as a measure of his performance. However, he also intends on carrying out his duties as a regional head. He believes that optimal work aligns with the electoral effects that can be obtained.

“Electoral issues will follow and political parties will certainly make their evaluations based on an existing track record,” he said in a written statement. (NIA/BOW)

This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia.