The results of the Kompas National Survey conducted on 24 September-7 October 2022 stated that the potential electability of Ganjar is at 23.2 percent, Prabowo at 17.6 percent and Anies at 16.5 percent.
By
BAMBANG SETIAWAN
·5 minutes read
KOMPAS
The results of the Kompas Research and Development survey, Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan, still occupy the top position.
A year before the registration period for presidential candidates, the movement of people's choice of figures is increasingly dynamic. The electability of the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo, has steadily increased, now topping the electability figures. Meanwhile, the former governor of Jakarta, Anies Baswedan, began to climb to match Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. Outside the top three, the vote for the Governor of West Java, Ridwan Kamil, has doubled from before.
The results of the Kompas National Survey conducted on 24 September-7 October 2022 stated that the potential electability of Ganjar is at 23.2 percent, Prabowo at 17.6 percent and Anies at 16.5 percent.
These results change the map of support and ranking of the vote. In the June 2022 survey, Prabowo was at the top of the vote with 25.3 percent, followed by Ganjar with 22 percent and Anies at 12.6 percent.
In the mid-level figures, Ridwan Kamil's electability is at the top of the middle board with 8.5 percent of the vote, overtaking the Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno with 2.5 percent. In the June 2022 survey, the vote for Ridwan Kamil was 3.4 percent and Sandiaga 4.4 percent.
Apart from the two names, the electability of a number of figures shows a strengthening trend, even though not yet significant, including the Indonesian Military (TNI) Commander Gen. Andika Perkasa, DPR Speaker Puan Maharani and the General Chair of the Golkar Party (Golkar) Airlangga Hartarto.
On the other hand, several other figures experienced a decline in support, such as Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Tri Rismaharini, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Erick Thohir, Hary Tanoesoedibjo and Muhaimin Iskandar.
ADRYAN YOGA PARAMADWYA
Anies Baswedan and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono shake hands after a speech at the Democratic Party DPP office in Pegangsaan Village, Menteng District, Central Jakarta, Friday (7/10/2022).
Voter demographic
Ganjar excels over other candidates in gaining support from men. However, his support tends to stagnate in the range of 25 percent. Meanwhile, Ridwan Kamil gains a significant increase in votes, especially from women, rising more than 6 percent.
In terms of territory, Ganjar excels, especially in Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali and East Nusa Tenggara. In the Maluku-Papua cluster, Ganjar also strengthens to match Prabowo, especially in West Papua.
Meanwhile, Prabowo is superior, especially in West Sumatra, North Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and South Sulawesi. In Java, Prabowo is still ahead in Banten, but in West Java, he is eroded by Ridwan Kamil.
Meanwhile, Anies is superior in the Maluku-Papua cluster, especially in North Maluku. In Java, Anies' strength stands out in Jakarta. He is also strong in Aceh, East Kalimantan and Southeast Sulawesi. In West Sumatra, Anies begins to match Prabowo.
Ganjar's vote increase is mainly driven by urban voters; likewise, with Anies, while rural voters also increase slightly. Meanwhile, Prabowo loses quite a lot of votes in urban and rural areas. Ridwan Kamil is tough enough to attract voters from rural areas even though they are still under Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies.
Ganjar is getting wider support from the younger generations, especially generation Z (<26 years old) and the younger generation Y (26-33 years old). Ganjar also maintains the dominance of support from the Baby Boomers generation (56-74 years). Meanwhile, the middle generation Y (34-41 years old) and the generation X (42-55 years old) are quite tightly contested by three top figures.
STEPHANUS ARANDITIO
Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo responds to a call for clarification by the honorary council of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) at the PDIP DPP Office, Jalan Diponegoro, Central Jakarta on Monday (24/10/2022)..
Support for Ganjar strengthens significantly in groups with higher socioeconomic status (SSE). The same thing happens to Anies. He also receives additional support from those with lower SSE. Meanwhile, the vote for Prabowo is quite strong in the lower income bracket, competing with Ganjar.
Prabowo and Ganjar also compete fiercely in the basic education (SD-SMP) voter group. The increase in Ganjar's vote is mainly contributed by those with higher education, even though the proportion is still below Anies. Apart from highly educated voters, Anies' vote also rises slightly among those with primary and secondary education.
Party support
Ganjar's voting capital obtained from sympathizers who plan to vote for the PDI-P amounts to 46.6 percent. However, Ganjar also gains votes from sympathizers of other parties.
Meanwhile, Prabowo receives quite solid support from the Gerindra voters with support reaching 49.5 percent.
Support from party sympathizers for the most solid figure can be seen in the Prosperous Justice Party, which currently gives 52.7 percent of its vote to Anies. Support from sympathizers of the Nasdem Party, the United Development Party and the National Mandate Party has also increased for Anies.
The votes from supporters of Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin are solid enough to support Ganjar's vote.
If Prabowo and Anies both run as presidential candidates in the 2024 general election, the number of votes won during the 2019 election by the Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno pair will be split.
In the last election, 31.6 percent of those who voted for Prabowo-Sandiaga now choose Anies and 30.3 percent choose Prabowo. Meanwhile, the votes from supporters of Joko Widodo-Ma'ruf Amin are solid enough to support Ganjar's vote.
In the future, the support map is still very likely to change, considering that most parties have not declared their support and the coalition is still very fluid. The narrative about the power of the characters is also very likely to move the indecisive masses, which currently amount to 18.4 percent. (KOMPAS R&D)
