Competition Between Political Parties Heats Up

The electability of several political parties is dynamically changing amid hasty maneuvers of political party elites and presidential hopefuls.

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Some of political parties flags in General Election Commision Office, Jakarta, Wednesday (27/7/2022).

Room to increase a party’s electability is increasingly influenced by the effects of government coalitions, narratives and nominations for the country’s highest office.

The Kompas national survey in October 2022 recorded the composition and vote acquisition of leading parties. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is still in the lead with 21.2 percent of the vote, while the Gerindra Party (Gerindra), with 16.2 percent, is in second place, with the Democratic Party (Democrats) not far behind, with 14 percent.

Gerindra’s electability is catching up with the PDI-P considering there is a margin of error of ±2.8 percent. Likewise, the Democrats, which since the June 2022 survey have entered the top three parties with the highest electability, are also closely approaching Gerindra’s figure this month.

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Based on the increasing trend of Gerindra and the Democrats’ electability ratings, both of which have risen in the past year, both parties might just become strong competitors for PDI-P. This is especially considering that the positive slope of the Democrats’ electability is quite steep and is higher when compared to the survey results from October 2019, at the beginning of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s second term.

The electability survey also showed that new players were also growing stronger, namely the United Indonesia (Perindo) Party. Last June, Perindo only scored 3.3 percent in electability but 4.5 percent in October 2022. In fact, until the October 2021 survey, Perindo’s electability had only reached 1.6 percent and climbed to 2.5 percent in January 2022.

While some political parties gained electoral advantages, other political parties saw a decrease in their electability rating.

Perindo and the Democrats were the only two parties that saw a significant increase in electability during the last two surveys, with both reaching new heights in electability. Overall, political parties with increased electability in this survey were Gerindra (+3.7 percent), the Democrats (+2.4 percent), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) (+0.9 percent), the National Awakening Party (PKB) (+0.2 percent), Perindo (+1.2 percent) and the Nasdem Party (Nasdem) (+0.2 percent).

While some political parties gained electoral advantages, other political parties saw a decrease in their electability rating. In order, this includes the Golkar Party (-2.4%), PDI-P (-1.7 percent), the National Mandate Party (PAN) (-0.5 percent) and the United Development Party (PPP) (-0.3 percent).

It is hard to deny that political parties deemed a government “opposition” have, at this time, attained a positive electoral effect compared to government parties. It may be related to the general assessment of the government’s performance, which has considerably dropped compared to June 2022. Two areas of government that seem to be declining are law enforcement and economy.

Apart from rising and falling electability ratings, the overall results of the survey also captured the increasing consolidation of voters for political parties of their choice. This was reflected by the small number of voters who claimed they did not have a political party of choice, which stood at 12.1 percent, a decrease from the figure reported in June 2022 (16 percent).

The impact of the presidential election

Amid unfavorable images of political parties (15 percent), increasing a party’s electability is no easy matter, especially if the support has not been placed in the context of a strong political framework in the public’s perspective.

Such was the case for the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB), consisting of Golkar, PAN and PPP, which recommended Airlangga Hartarto, Puan Maharani, Zulkifli Hasan, Ridwan Kamil, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo as presidential candidates. The coalition members, however, did not gain a significant electoral advantage.

Likewise, the PDI-P’s working meeting in Lenteng Agung in June 2022 did not put forward any potential presidential candidates when it has been speculated that the party will either nominate Puan Maharani or Ganjar Pranowo.

Neither have the two political axes mentioned provided clarity or unanimous support for the presidential candidate they will nominate for the 2024 election. These circumstances give the public a weak political framework that is “polarized” and still needs a “reference” for political choices at this time.

Meanwhile, Gerindra already nominated its chairman Prabowo Subianto on 12 Aug. 2022. The party’s electability is also certainly stronger at this time, especially when it has regrouped Prabowo’s voters from the previous two elections. Almost half of Gerindra voters (48.2 percent) are Prabowo voters and this is among the highest compared to other parties.

As for Nasdem, which has declared it would back former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, only a slight increase was recorded, presumably because the announcement had not yet been socialized. The survey was conducted too close to the announcement of Anies’ candidacy on 3 October, from 24 Sept. to 7 Oct. 2022.

In current conditions, with the issue of the law enforcement’s image and forecasts of an economic crisis, political parties’ part of the government coalition must raise positive opinions and provide constructive solutions. Being too involved in practical political issues can draw negative reactions from the public, who are constantly observing everything.

Loyalty to political parties seems to be latent and is typically a characteristic of our voters. However, the impact of weakness in the implementation of development and oblique issues related to the presidential race must be addressed proportionally in order to restore the image of political parties. (LITBANG KOMPAS)

This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia.