Remembering History, Don't Dismiss China's Potential War with the US Leadership Triangle
The pattern of the feud between Sparta versus Athens which was involved in the Peloponnesian War was still developing in Asia.
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The President of the United States, Joe Biden (center), the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (left), and the Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, took a photo before their trilateral meeting in the East Room of the White House, Washington DC, USA, on April 11th, 2024.
China has warned against the US-Japan-Philippines triangle which is perceived as an attempt to militarily contain China. China has immediately reaffirmed its sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea.
One of the goals is to carry out a blockade even through the interior of the waters. The US-led triangle seems to show no fear. The deployment of new US weaponry will soon begin in the Philippines.
This situation gives rise to the “Thucydides trap” hypothesis again. The pattern of the feud between Sparta versus Athens which was involved in the Peloponnesian War was still developing in Asia. The “Thucydides Trap” is being seen through the US versus China feud, said Graham Allison, a Harvard political expert at the 27th Harvard College China Forum, April 12 2024, on the Harvard campus.
“Thucydides' Trap,” named after a Greek scholar who lived four centuries before Christ, refers to the historical pattern of struggle between Sparta and Athens. The new power (Athens) was driven instinctively to oppose the fading old power (Sparta) and the two were caught in war involving their allies. If the US and China follow exactly the same pattern, it will change the good news of a world that has been peaceful in the last 79 years, or since 1945, not trapped in a colossal war.
The term "Thucydides trap" which broke out in 2015 was coined by Allison. He examines the war of Sparta versus Athens, and the pattern of conflict between world geopolitical powers in the last 500 years.
Allison concluded that out of 16 geopolitical conflicts, 12 ended in war. The four conflicts that were avoided were between Spain and Portugal, the US versus England, the US against the Soviet Union, and Germany which did not militarily dominate Europe in the 1990s.
The US finds its footing
The “Thucydides trap” that mostly leads to war, Allison said, refers to discombobulation. There is a fear of humiliation that arises naturally and gives rise to the old forces' frantic attitude. This fear arises when new powers threaten to replace old powers. The structural pressures that arise from this situation make "clashes to violence" become the rule of the game.
Allison, who received a lot of criticism for the terminology "Thucydides trap", on January 29 2024 to New Yok Magazine, added that the current structural reality is that China is rise up and challenge the real US. The US's sense of panic emerged. This also creates confusion.
From China's perspective, the US is seen as becoming increasingly alert and forming alliances in the area surrounding China as a precautionary measure. China views this reaction from the US as a challenge in return.
There is a mixture between the desire of some parties in the US to embrace it, but faced with the unwillingness of other parties to recognize China's existence. So there is an opinion in the US that has a peaceful tone, which is accompanied by the attitude of other parties who continue to carry out demonization, cornering, and rampant campaigning, including worsening China's performance.
"From China's perspective, the US is seen as becoming more alert and vigilant, including by forming alliances in the surrounding regions of China. The US reaction is seen by China as a back challenge," said Allison.
Also read: US-Japan-Philippines Meeting, New Indo-Pacific Security Architecture
China believes that the US is encircling, obstructing, and suppressing. Allison went on to say that such a pattern has been written about by Thucydides in the case of Sparta versus Athens and the US-China dispute has already been predicted to occur.
In the same vein, it is said that the US no longer has a strong military strategy to face China if the US is alone. This is what three CSIS experts wrote. So the US has found a foothold through a coalition with the Philippines, Japan, Australia. US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel, April 10, told Bloomberg that the US-Japan-Philippines triangle was aimed at isolating China.
Changing dynamics
Chinese Coast Guard vessels (left and right) intercepted a civilian ship chartered by the Philippine Navy to supply logistics to the BRP Sierra Madre ship in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on August 22, 2023.
There was a triangular summit in Washington, April 11, by US President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. During the meeting, Biden stated that the triangular relationship was as strong as steel.
Regarding the Philippines, Biden mentioned that any attack on aircraft, ships, or armed forces belonging to the Philippines in the South China Sea will serve as a basis for the use of the US-Philippines defense treaty. Based on the agreement in 1951, the Philippines will be protected by US military defense.
The Philippines and China are involved in disputes in the South China Sea. Marcos Jr said that this tripartite coalition will bring a new dynamic to the South China Sea. Marcos hopes that the tripartite coalition will make China think twice about claiming the Philippines' territory in the South China Sea.
Also read: US Warns China Through Meeting with Japan-Philippines
An official from the US, as quoted by CNN on April 12th, also mentioned a plan to strengthen the military structure at the Air Force base in Clarck and the Navy in Subic, Philippines. Additionally, the US for the first time deployed the Typhon Weapon System to Luzon in northern Philippines. This system can launch Tomahawk and SM-6 cruise missiles.
Together with Japan, the US has signed over 70 agreements. The contents include increasing defense cooperation, investment, and even Japan's mission to the Moon.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands before a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the APEC summit in San Francisco, United States, on November 16, 2023.
To CNN on April 7th, Kishida stated that geopolitical tensions have driven the world into a new era and forced Japan to change its defense posture from merely defending itself to the possibility of an attack. Japan's defense budget will also be increased.
There is also criticism towards China coming from Japan, which ironically has been recorded in history as an aggressive power in Asia. "We witness Russia's aggression in Ukraine, as well as in East Asia," said Kishida.
”All around us there are countries developing ballistic missiles, nuclear weapons and building their defenses in unclear ways. "There are unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force, both in the East China Sea and the South China Sea," Kishida said, referring to China's aggression.
Kishida added that with this situation, the Japan-US alliance becomes very important. Kishida also spoke to a warm welcome in front of the US Congress on Thursday (12/4/2024).
Marcos and Kishida have strengthened the pattern of conflict, including for the interest of US hegemony in facing China. Asia has militarily increased its status as a potential military conflict zone.
Undersea maneuvers
A nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine of the Jin Type 094A class of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) was seen during a military demonstration in the South China Sea on April 12, 2018.
Of course, there are real things that make China worried, namely the US military's maneuvering under the sea. "One of the many things not disclosed by the US is militarization, including very dangerous actions and causes of destabilization through US submarine maneuvers in the South China Sea," said Joseph Gregory Mahoney, professor of politics and international relations at East China Normal University, to Bloomberg on April 10th.
The militarization of underwater by the US was only discovered after an accident occurred on the US side, referring to the accident that happened beneath the South China Sea experienced by the US nuclear-powered submarine USS Connecticut (SSN-22) on October 2, 2021. "This fact has prompted China to take a tougher stance on the surface of the sea," said Mahoney.
The construction of US underwater defense through submarine forces, said Mahoney, aims to blockade enemy naval forces. This construction is highly desired by the US. With the active sonar instruments of modern submarines, everything under the sea and on the surface can be tracked.
Also read: Reading the Direction of Alliances in the Region
This made it easier for a naval blockade to be combined with land, sea surface and air forces. The Chinese daily, The Global Times, March 22 2024, reported that the US military continues to strive to strengthen military power in the South China Sea, including submarine forces.
Continuous anger
Without a doubt, China's strong statement emerged through the Chinese Embassy in Washington on April 12, as well as through the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, on April 13.
Mao said that Japan and the Philippines are certainly free to develop relations with anyone. "However, these two countries should not create confrontational blocs in the region, let alone engage in cooperation that harms the interests of other countries," said Mao.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mao Ning
China is urging the United States and Japan not to form an anti-China clique and to not interfere with the One China Principle regarding Taiwan. China's reaction implicitly shows its fangs. "China is urging the United States and Japan to realize the moment and choose the right time and get rid of the cold war mentality," said Mao Ning.
This remark refers to the perception of China becoming stronger. Mao also warned about the story of the doll (pawn). “The lessons of history naturally dictate that a doll will be ignored,” he said.
This statement refers to major powers leaving the coalition. After the US left, its supporters in Afghanistan felt abandoned. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy complained about something similar.
There are many reasons for China to stand firm against the US and its camp. Mahoney said the US and Japan had caused 150 years of misery for China, accompanied by the major role of Britain, France and other European countries. China does not want history to repeat itself.
Patience limit
China reminded that patience has limits. Wu Shicun, President of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, warned: “China has a bottom line, but its patience is limited. Some countries may think China cannot go further, but this is a wrong estimate.”
China's anger is beginning to affect the "economy". President Marcos Jr stated that the US leadership triangle has no intention of attacking China and will not make the Philippines a weapon launch location. Marcos stated that Chinese investment is still welcomed, as quoted by Reuters on April 12th.
However, Chen Xiangmiao, the Director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, stated that it was highly illogical for the Philippines, who have joined forces with the US to confront China, to still rely on investment from China.
The United States is trying to calm the situation. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink and Senior Director of the National Security Council for China and Taiwan Sarah Beran visited China. This visit aligns with the advice of Allison and Jason Furman from Harvard that the US-China dispute should not disrupt the highly important economic relations.
Optimism side
Nevertheless, there is some optimism. China, the Philippines, and Japan hope to negotiate directly with China when it comes to territorial disputes. China's only desire is for the US to stay away and not interfere in Asia's internal affairs, as stated by Mao Ning.
Wu Shicun stated that China still needs to maintain cooperation with other parties. However, when it comes to territorial disputes and military alliances, China does not want US involvement. It seems that China can no longer fully trust the US. Does this mean that the situation will lead to a major war?
Also read: Reading the US-Japan-Philippines Trilateral
China, according to Allison, who has a lot of contact with Chinese officials, is deeply into the "Thucydides trap." A similar thing was stated by a geopolitical expert from the University of Chicago, John Mearsheimer, that China understands the dangers of fierce geopolitical power competition. Thus, there is room for discussion.
However, discussions do not make China and the US ignore increasing war capabilities. China will blockade the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku). The Global Times, April 9, reported that the South China Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) would secure China's rights and sovereignty in the South China Sea. The same thing also applies under the Diaoyu waters.
Photo archives from April 12, 2018 released by Xinhua news agency show Chinese President Xi Jinping speaking after reviewing the fleet of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLA) in the South China Sea.
China aims to avoid war by blocking the attack power of US allies from under the sea. Chinese submarine type 039C Yuan Class, which is said to be stealthy and equipped with active sonar instruments, has started operating.
Unpredictable
Lu Xiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stated, The US is basically very aware of its capabilities Chinese military in the Western Pacific. He stated that the US should not take basic actions because it could have major consequences.
Larry Summers, former US Treasury Secretary, who considers himself a friend of China, stated that it was important for the US to convince China that all US actions were not aimed at suppressing China. However, Summers also asked China not to promote wolf warrior diplomacy, which could trigger US resistance.
It seems that China will carefully explore every possible way to avoid war, especially through blockade. However, the road to war can never be predicted. The issue between the US and China is no longer just about Taiwan, but has also involved the role of the Philippines, which historically has not had major problems with China.
In Asia, there are parties who are in the US camp and also in the Chinese camp. A vulnerable situation clearly exists. "Who would have thought that World War I would be triggered by the murder of an archduke, which never made it to page one in the media in New York, and in a matter of five weeks could trigger war throughout Europe?" Allison said.
Allison refers to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary by Bosnian-Serbian citizens. This case dragged many countries in Europe into the trap of war. World War I even became the root of World War II. Therefore, Allison suggested that discussions between leaders of countries and even between personal officials of the US and China are urgent matters at present. (AFP/AP/REUTERS)
