Third Year of the Russo-Ukrainian War (II): Did the F-16 Really Overcome Ukraine's Weaknesses?
If the F-16 finally fought in the Ukrainian war, it would be a proving ground for this legendary fighter aircraft.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sat in the cockpit of a Danish Air Force F-16 jet accompanied by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at Skrydstrup Air Base, Denmark (August 20th, 2023). Ukraine is awaiting F-16 assistance from Western countries.
Until the 778th day, the war between Ukraine and Russia has involved various types of weapons made by Western countries. Listed include Javelin, Stinger, HIMARS rockets, Bayraktar drones, Patriot missile systems, Kamikaze drones, and main battle tanks. a> Leopard and M1A1 Abrams.
The first is Ukraine's ability to repel Russia from an attempt to encircle the capital Kyiv in the battle of March 11, 2022, in which a convoy of Russian tanks and armored vehicles reached a length of 64 km. Using a combination of Bayraktar II drones, Javelin portable air defense systems (manpads) and precision artillery fire, Ukraine was able to disperse Putin's troops from their target of controlling the capital, Kyiv.
The second is during the liberation of Kharkiv Province through the Ukrainian uprising attack in October 2022. This involved the ability to incite by Ukrainian special forces, causing chaos and confusion in the Russian army's rear lines. As a result, Russia was forced to withdraw its forces from most of the front lines of the Kharkiv region.
The third is the retreat of dozens of Russian infantry battalions from the Kherson province area on November 12, 2022. The result was achieved after the cunning tactics of the Ukrainian forces gradually cornered thousands of Russian soldiers in an enclave in the western side of the Dnipro River.
Special Forces members in Ukraine are fixing camouflage nets to protect their heavy weaponry, M109 Paladin, at a location in Luhansk, Ukraine (28/1/2024).
As a result, despite all the advantages of world-class weaponry, Russia has proven to be unable to advance further beyond the front lines of the border stretching from the north in Kharkiv to the south in Zaporizhiya, covering about 1,000 km. Bombing of Ukraine's civilian infrastructure using a combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, Kamikaze drones and hypersonic missiles has proven insufficient in subduing the morale of the Ukrainian people.
After the capture of the city of Bakhmut by Wagner mercenaries in February-May 2023, the Russian advance was stalled for almost a year. Kompas's notes (11/3/2023) show that at that time there was a war of endurance (attrition war) where neither side had a definite military advantage. Moreover, NATO's sophisticated weapons are also increasingly being supplied to Ukraine.
Apart from that, within the Russian military there was a polemic split between President Vladimir Putin and the leader of the Wagner group Yevgeny Progozhin, who had previously been the backbone in seizing Ukrainian cities. Even on June 23 2023, Prighozhin's troops invaded the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don which was a logistics base for war ammunition.
A F-16 Fighting Falcons fighter jet belonging to the US Air Force took off from Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, heading towards Fetesti Air Base in Romania on February 11, 2022.
However, since mid-February 2024, Russia has again changed its war strategy to a method that combines massive attacks preceded by bombing using large glide bombs. This method was used by Russia to repel Ukrainian troops on the front line without needing to get too close to the front line with portable air defense systems.
Russian war technicians changed the FAB series conventional bombs (fugasnaya avia bomba oraerial demolition bomb) into smart bombs capable of targeting targets with high accuracy. This method has proven to be quite efficient in attacking Ukrainian troops who are currently experiencing a shortage of ammunition and weapons.
Also read: The Third Year of the Russo-Ukrainian War (I): Waiting for the F-16 ”Godot”
The delay in the approval of financial aid disbursement from the US Congress and the slow assistance from other NATO countries have caused the Ukrainian forces to persist with their remaining ammunition. According to some testimonies from the Ukrainian forces, some of them are even forced to retreat from the battlefield due to the lack of defense equipment and logistical supplies to simply survive.
As the anticipated large-scale Russian attack is expected to take place in around two months during the Ukrainian mainland's spring, the Ukrainian military appears to be in great need of modern fighter aircraft.
Vladimir Putin's aerial duel challenge
In 2023, Russia warned Western countries not to send F-16s to Ukraine after US President Joe Biden changed his stance to allow in early 2023 the delivery of F-16s to Ukraine.
The issue of air pollution is not new. The community has long been threatened by air pollution. Numerous research studies have also shown the danger of air pollution. However, these factors have yet to drive significant efforts in controlling air pollution. As a result, residents continue to suffer from the consequences of living in areas with high levels of air pollution. In the 20th May 2023 edition of CNN, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Alexander Grushko, made a statement regarding the matter. "We see that Western countries are still heading towards a scenario of war escalation, which could result in extraordinary risks for themselves," Grushko commented on President Biden's permission to re-export F-16s from Western countries to Ukraine. These extraordinary risks would mean an open war between Russia and NATO.
However, as difficulties in realizing the provision of F-16 to Ukraine and the fact that Zelenskyy's forces are in a dire situation on the battlefield arise, it seems to have made Putin start to change his mind. Instead of opposing the delivery of F-16, the Russian president is now challenging the West to dare to send the NATO mainstay jets to the Ukrainian battlefield.
During his conversation with Russian Air Force pilots on March 7, 2024, Vladimir Putin mentioned the level of relationship with the US as the worst it has ever been. Putin stated that Russia did not have any plans to attack neighboring countries such as Ukraine, which is part of NATO, including Sweden and Finland, who have recently joined NATO.
"If they supply F-16s and it seems they are training pilots, this will not change the situation on the battlefield. And we will destroy those planes just like we destroyed tanks, armored vehicles, and other equipment, including some rocket launchers," Putin said.
Fighter jets F-16 belonging to Taiwan flew in close formation during a Navy exercise at the Suao Naval Base in Yilan, Taiwan on April 13, 2018.
As is known, almost all of NATO's main conventional weapons have been deployed to the battlefield in Ukraine to fight against Russian weaponry from various military branches. So far, there has been no real Western vs Russia aerial combat, especially between the two countries' main fighter jets.
Not wanting Russian fighter jets to appear inferior and lose popularity to the F-16's threats, President Vladimir Putin now seems to be opening the possibility of a real air duel.
As a note, the fighter jets used by Ukraine so far were made during the Soviet era and, although they are the same as those used by Russia, their technology is outdated. At the beginning of the 2022 war, Ukraine had 71 Su-27s and MiG-29 fighter jets, 14 Su-24M bomber planes, and 31 Su-25 attack aircraft.
Also read: Ukraine's Counterattack Gets New "Vitamin" Addition
In just the 2022 war, Ukraine had already lost 62 of its fighter jets. Then, in 2023, as various air defense systems from the West arrived as aid, the number of fighter planes lost in battle decreased drastically to only 7.
In 2024, Ukraine is estimated to have at least 78 combat-capable aircraft, including donations from Slovakia and Poland, which have transferred around 33 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. This is in comparison to Russia's combat capabilities, which still possess 1,169 aircraft with an annual production capacity of around 36 new fighter planes.
Eight Indonesian Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter planes form an arrow head formation during training in Jakarta (13/8/2021).
High standard of F-16 fighter aircraft
On the other hand, Putin continues to intimidate countries that may later become launch points/flight paths for F-16s and will be considered legitimate targets for attack. Although on paper this could mean an attack on a NATO country, it appears that diplomatically, Putin will take the limited risk of that threat.
The threat from Putin is related to the projection of the use of airbases in several neighboring countries of Ukraine, which include NATO members, for F-16 flights given that these planes have very strict requirements. These requirements are difficult to meet by Ukraine, which is in a state of war and has many airports damaged due to Russian missile attacks.
For example, this jet needs a runway that is longer, flatter and cleaner than the runway that Russian jets can land on. The F-16 was not designed for Ukraine's damaged and sometimes makeshift runways. Not to mention the need to not be monitored by Russian spy radars when the F-16 aircraft is taking off or being stored in the hangar.
The turbojet engine's air intake (intake) under the F-16's fuselage is lower than on the taller Russian MIG and Sukhoi aircraft. Many Soviet-era fighters were designed to operate in poor runway conditions, and had flaps on the air intakes to prevent the engines from sucking up debris while the aircraft was on an emergency runway.
A Republic of Singapore Air Force F-16 releases flares during an aerobatics display at the Singapore Airshow in Singapore (16/2/2022)
The spokesman for the Ukrainian air force, Yuri Ihnat, acknowledged the technical problem to the media Politico (29/2/2024). ”Falcons do require some adaptations, runway preparation because the landing gear is smoother, smaller, the air intake is low, the danger of swallowing objects. But all of these things can be overcome. "The F-16 is a valuable aircraft, but vulnerable," said Yuri Ihnat.
Military experts say that F-16s alone will not win the war. However, they will provide Ukraine with crucial capabilities that it currently lacks.
"With careful planning, it is possible that in the early stages before the Russians understand what is happening, they can score air-to-air kills by placing F-16 fighters in the right place at the right time," said Peter Layton, associate military observer. Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute to Kyivindependent media (17/1/2024).
"The air-to-air missile AMRAAM, which can be fired from that platform, has a longer range than the weapons that can be installed on Ukrainian MiG-29s. However, this will only be a tactical advantage before Russia adapts by dragging their planes further back from the front lines," he said.
An F-16 fighter plane in the Air Squadron 3 Shelter shortly after landing at the TNI AU Iswahjudi Air Base in Magetan, East Java (March 20, 2017).
A state-of-the-art F-16 with a complete package is estimated to cost around one trillion rupiah currently, although it is not certain which type will be given to Ukraine. The total production of this aircraft is more than 4,500 units used by 25 countries around the world.
Even though it was first made in 1978, to this day this multi-role light jet is still produced by the Lockheed Martin factory, USA, because its sophistication continues to be improved and its flying-combat performance is reliable. The F-16 is known for its agile maneuverability in the air, reliable radar and missiles, and most importantly has been battle proven in various battles.
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A pilot of an F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jet from Air Squadron 3 of the Indonesian Air Force's Iswahyudi Air Base in Madiun, East Java (10/3/2017), was seen preparing for a patrol flight on the Indonesian border.
F-16 pilot training
So far, the Netherlands and Denmark are the first countries willing to provide or sell F-16s to Ukraine. The Netherlands is providing 24 units of F-16 from its operational fleet but sets a requirement of having suitable airfields to operate the fighter aircraft and trained personnel for maintenance.
Denmark has also stated similar requirements. A total of more than 60 F-16 aircraft offered by Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Belgium will be given to Ukraine. However, according to The New York Times, Ukraine may only receive six out of the 45 US-made F-16 fighter jets promised by Western allies in July 2024.
Also read: Third Year of the Russo-Ukrainian War (I): Waiting for the F-16 ”Godot”.
The main cause of this delay is the Ukrainian pilot training delay at the Air Base in Romania. Although this training was faster than normal standards, it was still slower than what Ukraine and its allies had expected, as the pilots had to master the English language and Western military practices to effectively use the F-16.
A number of fighter pilots are chatting near the row of F-16 fighter jets after a departure ceremony for the F-16 fighter jets heading to Australia to participate in multinational combat training, at Iswahjudi Air Force Base in Magetan, East Java (24/7/2018).
To train Ukrainian pilots, a coalition of 11 countries is required. It takes between three to nine months for Ukrainian pilots to complete F-16 training. The Netherlands, along with Denmark, lead European efforts to provide F-16 training to Ukraine. Pilot training is available in the United States, Romania, and Denmark.
Ukrainian pilots will start graduating from F-16 fighter jet training in May 2024. The US has trained 12 Ukrainian pilots who have been flying F-16s solo every day. However, the requirements for these pilots have changed and the training now takes longer as the pilots must be able to operate various missions beyond wartime scenarios.
The arrival of the F-16 appears to be provoking Russian fighter pilots to show their prowess, including demonstrating whether the larger engine performance of the Sukhoi would be useful in actual air combat. (To be continued) (KOMPAS Research)
Also read: Kinzhal, a Russian hypersonic missile that can be intercepted by Ukraine
