Third Year of the Russo-Ukrainian War (I): Waiting for the F-16 ”Godot”.
The F-16 fighter planes that the West promised to send at the end of 2023 have not arrived, making Ukraine start to despair.
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Dozens of vehicles were burned in a residential area in Belgorod, Ukraine on Friday (22/3/2024) after Russian military launched missile attacks on Ukraine.
“Every weapon has its own timing. The F-16 fighter is needed in 2023. It is not right for 2024,” said a Ukrainian military official in an interview with media Politico, Wednesday (3/4/2024).
This controversial statement from a military official subordinate to General Valery Zaluzhny, the former Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who was replaced in February 2024, immediately became the talk of the western media monitoring the Russia-Ukraine war.
Indeed, it is not only about the delay in the arrival of the legendary fighter plane made by "Uncle Sam," but also the officer who wants to speak anonymously talked about the overall condition of the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian troops. In his observation, the general picture of Ukraine's military capabilities at present is bleak amidst a new and massive threat of Russian military invasion.
Firefighters are attempting to put out a blaze that erupted at one of the power network facilities in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on Friday (22/3/2024), as a result of Russia's military missile attack.
In pre-emptive strikes in recent weeks, the war front stretching from Kharkiv in the north to Odesa in the south has been hit by continuous Russian missile and drone attacks. The attacks targeted Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, leaving troops returning from the front line without logistical support and social resources.
One example of Russia's recent devastating attack was the capture of the small front line town of Avdiivka in Donetsk Province. The city of approximately 30 square kilometers and with a population of 32,000 residents (before the war) was devastated after being attacked by tens of thousands of Vladimir Putin's soldiers (some estimate 100,000 Russian troops) for four months starting in October 2023.
Although it has been mentioned that it sacrificed the lives of 20,000-47,000 soldiers just to capture the city, on February 17, 2024, the once-beautiful small city was finally captured by Russia. This became Russia's first military achievement after nine months of stagnation on the front lines because neither Russia nor Ukraine was able to push back the other side.
In order to avoid catastrophic tragedy such as Ukraine's defeat and the deaths of thousands of Azov soldiers while defending the city of Mariupol in May 2022, Ukrainian troops from the III Assault Brigade and the 46th Airborne Brigade finally withdrew from the coal product-producing city after suffering a complete defeat.
In a picture provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Service, a team from the emergency service unit is working at the site of the Russian attack in Odesa, Ukraine on March 15, 2024.
Russia's "dumb bomb" strategy
The key to Russia's victory in "breaking the war stalemate" by capturing the strategic city of Avdiivka for months seems to have come from the Russian Air Force. Russian forces established centralized air superiority as well as providing close air support to ground forces during the final days of their offensive operations, wrote the Institute for the Study of War.
There has been a change in strategy, from previously using missiles and including the expensive and limited hypersonic missile Zirkon, to using massive bombs.
The spokesperson for the Ukrainian air force, Yuri Ihnat, recounted the cause of the Avdiivka crash to CNN a few days after their retreat: "During the Avdiivka battle, hundreds of air bombs were launched over several days. There were 250 bombing attacks towards Avdiivka alone in just 48 hours."
Sergei Shoigu, the Defense Minister of Russia, has confirmed that his troops have carried out 450 high-precision air strikes in the recent days in Avdiivka. Many of these bombs were of the "dumb" or "dumb bomb" type, with wings wide enough to resemble cruise missiles, enabling them to glide further and providing a higher level of precision capability.
Flight controls allow them to use gliding flight paths toward targets at greater distances.
The Russian government is currently boosting the production of the massive FAB 1500 series, and even developing the FAB 3000, after their previous strategy of launching missiles was proven to be able to penetrate Ukraine's anti-aircraft defense system. By flooding the front line with more FAB bombs, it is hoped that Ukraine's defense system will experience a deficit of missiles or air defense ammunition and ultimately become disabled.
The stupid bombs that Shoigu alluded to were the FAB series bombs (fugasnaya avia bomba or aerial demolition bomb). Some are Soviet-era stockpiles (first produced in 1946, FAB 250) which were modified with new detonators, avionics sensors and motor-fins to become "smart bombs" that precisely hit targets.
In this war, most of the types used were the FAB-500 M-62 (500 kg, with 300 kg explosives) to the FAB-1500 M-54 (1,500 kg, with 675 kg explosives). Both were launched from Russia's main fighter jets, especially the Su-34 Fullback bomber and the Su-35 Flanker multirole jet.
FAB-500 M-62 is an old edition bomb for destroying military facilities, light armor, soldiers, fortresses, and military fields. Meanwhile, FAB-1500 M-54 is a new bomb developed from the Soviet era edition, redesigned and first tested in September 2023.
Ukrainian residents living in Georgia, together with other demonstrators, held up posters during a protest against Russian military aggression towards Ukraine commemorating two years of war in Ukraine in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Saturday (24/2/2024).
The Arsenal FAB-1500 is a surprise due to its warhead being five times larger than the ones previously used by the Russian forces. After development, this weapon is effective in destroying strategic targets, such as high-rise buildings or large areas covering 2 square kilometers if detonated in the air using a fragmentation warhead.
From a distance of around 60-70 kilometers, the Russian jet increased the speed of the aircraft and then released the bomb in a laser-guided manner so that it hit the target with an accuracy of 5 meters. Ukrainian air defenses are often unable to prevent glide bombs like this because their trajectory tends to be non-ballistic with a very short launch time.
Ukrainian soldiers from a drone hunting team show media parts of a black Russian-launched drone that allegedly crashed next to a German Gepard anti-aircraft gun tank, on the outskirts of Kyiv, Thursday ( 11/30/2023).
Control of Russian air space in Ukraine
With Russia's change in attack strategy, there appears to be a gap in Ukraine's defense that is causing a shift in the calculations of the war. Several Western media outlets, including Newsweek and The Independent, have even started predicting that the final outcome of the war could be a victory for Russia due to the effectiveness of the "dumb winged bombs."
"Everything now depends on where Russia will concentrate its military power in the planned massive attack expected to be launched this summer. Hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers are currently being monitored for a new summer offensive, a pattern that Russia has already done in previous years," said Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of the Ukrainian Army, on Ukrainian television.
Also read: Ukraine's Counterattack Gets New "Vitamin" Addition
So far, defeat in terms of air resources and weaponry has forced Ukraine to use surface-to-air missiles to keep Russian airplanes at a distance behind the front line.
The military of President Zelenskyy's country hopes that the use of F-16s will restore the balance of the battle and push Russia further back, reducing the effectiveness of bombings. The F-16 Fighting Falcon can also target radar transmitters more effectively and hunt down more cruise missiles which, on average, travel at subsonic speeds (less than 1 Mach), which is still below the top speed of the F-16 (more than Mach 2).
The Ukrainian military's "dream" of the legendary fighter jet is not without reason. The airspace of the Ukraine-Russia border is currently relatively empty due to the weakness of Russia's fighter jet coordination, as evidenced by the recent crashes of two Russian control and early warning aircraft (AWACS), Beriev A-50.
A photo taken on May 9, 2018 shows a Russian MiG-31 K fighter jet flying in the air carrying the hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The advanced Kinzhal missile has been used in the war in Ukraine.
Russian jet brought down by Ukrainian military
The disappearance of the attack coordinator aircraft with the capability of detecting missiles or enemy aircraft from hundreds of kilometers away has forced Russian fighter jets and bombers to advance closer to the front line. The actions of Russian pilots to achieve shooting accuracy often end with the arrival of Russian jets being detected by radar and Ukraine's air defense system which quickly launches air defense missiles.
Until now, the exact weapon system that brought down the advanced Russian fighter jet is not known. Ukraine also refrains from openly claiming which weapon was used to bring down A-50, as it fears it could trigger a nuclear escalation from Russia. It is understandable since this aircraft is Russia's mainstay, built in the Soviet era, and would be difficult to reproduce during the current embargo period in Western countries.
A number of analyzes suspect the role of the Patriot missile system in bringing down two Russian A-50s in the air in addition to another one being destroyed by a Ukrainian drone on the runway. Ukraine also appeared to try to ease the burden on America, saying it was the Soviet Union's S-200 air defense system that brought down the Beriev A-50.
Beriev Be-200 aircraft from Russia at Depati Amir Airport, Pangkalpinang, Bangka Belitung, Saturday (24/10/2015).
Together with the disappearance of the three Russian AWACS aircraft, in just two weeks, dozens of advanced Russian jets were shot down by the Ukrainian defense system, including 10 Su-34 Fullback fighter bombers and two Su-35 Flanker fighter jets.
Both types of fighter aircraft are Russia's mainstay for various air attack missions, including bombing. The last three Su-34s were reported destroyed in just one day on February 29, 2024 in eastern Ukraine.
Also read: The Direction of the Russian-Ukrainian War Begins to Change
According to the analysis of Ukrainian military experts, if F-16s had arrived earlier, it would have helped strengthen control of the airspace on the front line, thus hindering the advance of Russian ground forces. It is believed that the tactical capabilities of the F-16 will cause trouble for the Russian forces because until today, Russia has not been able to dominate the airspace in Ukraine. This means that the city of Avdiika may still be able to be defended by Ukraine at present.
Like the belief expressed by Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuri Ihnat, "We will not win the war immediately, but F-16s can change the course of the war." Ukraine is awaiting the arrival of F-16s promised by Western countries like waiting for Godot. (TO BE CONTINUED) (KOMPAS RESEARCH)
Also read: When Ukraine's "Drone" Attack Rocked the Heart of Russia
