Unsteady Condition of Rice

Name: Unsteady Condition of Rice
Uploaded: 2024-02-13T08:05:00Z
Duration: 20 min 32 s
Description: With rice stocks at the beginning of the year amounting to 7.3 million tons based on the 2024 Food Balance Prognosis, rice shortages actually occurred.

With rice stocks at the beginning of the year amounting to 7.3 million tons based on the 2024 Food Balance Prognosis, rice shortages actually occurred.

HENDRIYO WIDI

· 6 minutes read

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Limbung Beras

The price of rice is getting higher. The premium rice market is starting to become unfilled. When a famine occurs, floods actually approach. Now, rice shortages are occurring. Will it stop?

In the last year, the price of medium rice rose 15.21 percent. The Food Price Panel National Food Agency (Bapanas) shows, as of February 13 2024, the national average price of medium rice is IDR 13,870 per kilogram (kg), higher than the average price of February 2023 worth IDR 11,760 per kg.

Similarly, the average national price of premium rice has increased by 15.34 percent annually, from Rp 13,410 per kg to Rp 15,840 per kg.

Also read: Rice Triggers Inflation for Six Consecutive Months

For six consecutive months, August 2023-January 2024, rising rice prices have triggered inflation. The monthly rice inflation rate in August 2023 is 1.43 percent. In September 2023, monthly rice inflation will be at its highest level, namely 5.61 percent.

In October, November, and December 2023, the inflation level decreased respectively to 1.72 percent, 0.43 percent, and 0.48 percent. Then in January 2024, the monthly inflation rate for rice rose again to 0.64 percent.

This happened due to the national rice production falling about 650,000 tons from 31.54 million tons in 2022 to 30.89 million tons in 2023. The decrease in production resulted in a surplus of only 270,000 tons in the rice production and consumption balance outside of rice imports and exports in 2023.

In January-February 2024, the Central Statistics Agency also mentioned that there will be a rice deficit of 2.83 million tons. A new rice surplus will only begin in March 2024, estimated at around 970,000 tons. However, this surplus is much lower compared to March 2023 which reached 2.59 million tons.

Weather changes, especially the prolonged El Nino phenomenon, are the culprit. This also pushed back the first planting season and the rice harvest. The rice famine is also getting longer.

Also read: Floods during rice deficit trigger higher grain prices

During the 2022/2023 period, the rice shortage season will last for six months, from August 2022 to January 2023. Meanwhile, during the 2023/2024 period, the rice shortage season will occur for eight months, from July 2023 to February 2024.

At a time when the balance between rice production and consumption is experiencing a deficit, floods are hitting several regions in Indonesia. From February 5 to 13, 2024, floods struck the districts of Demak, Kudus, and Grobogan in Central Java. The Ministry of Agriculture noted that the floods hit 7,026 hectares of agricultural land, primarily consisting of rice fields.

The flood has affected the psychology of the national rice market, causing the price of rice to soar. Not only have prices gone up, but people have also started struggling to get premium rice at several minimarts and modern retail stores in the past few days.

Fortunately, society is still able to obtain rice from traditional markets or grocery stores. As many as 22 million low-income families also do not need to buy excessive amounts of rice, as they receive 10 kg of rice assistance per family.

Also read: El Nino and the Story of a Farmer's Plate of Rice

Actually, referring to the National Food Balance Prognosis for the January-December 2024 Period by Bapanas, the volatility of the wheat market can be contained. The prognosis states that the final stock at the end of last year, which became the initial stock this year, amounted to 7.3 million tons. The stock is distributed among farmers, mills, traders, retailers, Perum Bulog, ID Food, and households.

With an average monthly rice requirement of 2.6 million tons, the initial stock of 7.3 million tons could meet the demand for almost three months. However, in reality, several rice mills are lacking in raw materials. Consequently, Bulog had to supply 200,000 tons of rice at the end of last year and the beginning of this year.

Many farmers are also tempted by high prices of unhusked rice and therefore do not store much. When their rice stock runs out, they end up buying rice that is also experiencing a price hike.

The government also plans to import 2.44 million tons of rice this year. In fact, the Cipinang Rice Wholesale Market in Jakarta continues to be supplied with rice by Bulog to ensure that rice reserves remain above the safe limit of 30,000 tons.

Then, where did the initial stock of 7.3 million tons of rice at the beginning of the year go? Is it just a number or just a calculation?

Also read: If the scenario goes, the rice surplus will reach 10.46 million tons this year

In its Food Balance Prognosis, Bapanas even projected that the national rice production throughout this year would reach 31.93 million tons. This figure is higher than the actual rice production in 2022 and 2023.

Based on stock figures at the beginning of the year, rice production and rice imports, as well as annual rice needs of 31.21 million tons, Indonesia is estimated to have a rice surplus of 10.46 million tons. Bapanas emphasized that such a large surplus could be realized if all these scenarios went well (Kompas, 12/2/2024). Again, if all those scenarios go well.

However, varying weather conditions in each region have the potential to cause crop failure and disruption in rice cultivation. Moreover, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) predicts that the rainy season this year will be short, namely from January to March.

Under normal conditions, the rainy season occurs from November to March. In April 2024, the eastern monsoon winds from Australia will begin to return. Meanwhile, El Nino is predicted to continue until May 2024.

This year’s rainy season is predicted to be short, only occurring from January to March. In normal conditions, the rainy season occurs from November to March.

The Presidential Staff Office has also recorded that in February 2024, there were 19 regions at high risk of crop disturbance and 50 regions at high risk of crop failure due to climate change. Disturbances can result from floods, low rainfall, and high levels of rice field water due to high rainfall frequency and intensity.

Floods have also struck several regions in Indonesia from January to mid-February 2024. On the other hand, there are still areas whose rice fields are fallow or have yet to be planted with rice due to minimal rainfall.