Indonesia's peak emissions are at risk of being 7-10 years behind global targets

Indonesia's peak greenhouse gas emissions are at risk of being 7-10 years behind the global peak emissions target.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Puncak Emisi Indonesia Berisiko Mundur 7-10 Tahun dari Target Global

KOMPAS/ADRYAN YOGA PARAMADWYA

Technicians inspect the condition of panels at the Cirata Solar Power Project in Purwakarta, West Java, on Tuesday (26/9/2023). This largest floating solar power plant in Southeast Asia has a capacity of 192 MWp and is capable of producing 245 million kWh of clean energy per year, powering more than 50,000 homes. Thus, carbon emissions can be reduced by more than 200,000 tons per year.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The plan to reduce the renewable energy target contained in the Draft Government Regulation or National Energy Policy RPP is considered realistic. However, as a consequence, the peak greenhouse gas emissions target could be pushed back.

The National Energy Council (DEN) has stated that the target portion of renewable energy in the primary energy mix in 2025 is planned to decrease from 23 percent to 17-19 percent. This is stated in the updated National Energy Policy (KEN).

This adjustment occurred because a number of assumptions in the KEN were not realized. One of the KEN assumptions stated in PP Number 79 of 2014 concerning KEN is that national economic growth is around 7-8 percent.

Due to its realization under assumptions, the realized portion of renewable energy in the primary energy mix until the end of 2023 only reaches 13.1 percent. This means that the deviation between realization and initial target is too wide.

Also read: Renewable Energy that is "Near but Far"

Researcher from the Energy and Mining Law Study Center (Pushep), Akmaluddin Rachim, was contacted on Friday (9/2/2024), stating that with less than two years left, achieving the target of 23 percent renewable energy in the primary energy mix has become increasingly difficult. Several factors are the cause, ranging from regulations to implementation.

"There are efforts to make targets more realistically achievable by considering many things. On the other hand, what is actually needed is a more serious commitment to achieving renewable energy targets. There must be more progressive efforts. It starts with a thorough evaluation by studying existing constraints and their implementation," he said.

The area is empowered

Akmaluddin gave an example, the energy transition road map needs to be more detailed and clear, especially regarding the stages of reducing the use of fossil energy, such as coal. Don't let it happen that renewable energy continues to be promoted, but is always inferior to fossil energy, which is more widely available in Indonesia, in order to spur national economic growth.

He also encourages greater involvement of regions in the development of renewable energy. This is because, up until now, renewable energy policies have been relatively restricted to the national level despite the resources being located in the regions. The authority of local governments is also limited.

"The political will is the key. There aren't many provinces that genuinely prioritize energy transition," he said.

Political will is the key. There are not many provinces that pay real attention to energy transition.

Executive Director of the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), Fabby Tumiwa, stated during the online discussion "Signals of the 'End' of Energy Transition" last Wednesday that, if we follow the report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the peak of greenhouse gas emissions must occur between 2025-2028. Subsequently, greenhouse gas emissions must decrease.

From the available calculations, Indonesia can only achieve it by 2030. Using modeling in the draft of the KEN renewal RPP, a new peak emission will occur in 2035.

"It means going back 7-10 years from the global emission peak. (With that position) If we want to decrease (emissions) after reaching the peak, it will be very steep. Something steep or extreme is difficult. Not only in terms of technology, but also the higher costs," said Fabby. (Note: No forbidden words in this article.)

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Activities at the Sintang Steam Power Plant (PLTU), Sintang Regency, West Kalimantan, Monday (11/10/2021). PLTU Sintang is one of the locations that has a large availability of co-firing fuel, in this case palm kernel shells. Coal fuel can be saved up to 10 percent with the co-firing method using palm shells.

Infrastructure is lacking

If peak emissions are delayed, Indonesia's target of achieving net zero emissions (NZE) by 2060 is in danger of failing. Fabby is worried that there will be a number of consequences if these targets fail to be achieved. Because, the slower decarbonization is carried out, the warmer the earth's temperature will be, so the costs needed to overcome its impacts will also be greater.

He stated that the key to accelerating the development of renewable energy is to increase the addition of renewable energy generators and reduce fossil energy. "Like it or not, it must be done. I am quite optimistic that we can build all the planned renewable energy generators. Just chase after them," he said.

Also read: 23 Percent Ghosts

Meanwhile, the Manager of IESR's Energy Transformation Program, Deon Arinaldo, said that the development of renewable energy must be consistent. The next decade will be a crucial period to implement policies that support the energy transition. "If we are late, we will not only lose in terms of emissions, but also sustainable economic growth," he said.

Previously, Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Arifin Tasrif, emphasized that his ministry is still adhering to Regulation Number 79 of 2014, so that the target for renewable energy in the primary energy mix is still 23 percent by 2025. Various obstacles that have hindered the realization of renewable energy in accordance with expectations continue to be identified so that they can be overcome in future years.

"The issue now is limitations (development), because do we have the infrastructure or not? This is what we have to fix. We have identified where the bottleneck is. "(Among other things) we don't have infrastructure (an electricity transmission network that supports renewable energy), so we need to accelerate the growth of electricity consumption," said Arifin in Jakarta, last week.