Extreme Weather Will Become the Biggest Threat to the Global Economy in 2024, Is Indonesia Ready?

Environmental threats are the biggest challenges facing the world this year and the next ten years.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Cuaca Ekstrem Jadi Ancaman Terbesar Ekonomi Global 2024, Indonesia Siap?

KOMPAS/RIZA FATHONI

The view of the park in the Tugu Monas complex, Central Jakarta, was captured some time ago. The 80-hectare Tugu Monas complex, in addition to being a historical tourist destination and an iconic monument in the capital, also provides green open spaces that serve as the city's lungs, producing oxygen that can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - Extreme weather conditions caused by environmental degradation pose a serious threat that can affect the global economy until 2024. The increase in global temperatures can trigger climate anomalies that can disrupt economic activity. The effectiveness of policies in mitigating climate change is crucial to shield the national economy from various existing risks.

The 2024 Global Risk Report released by the World Economic Forum (WEF), Wednesday (10/1/2024), has mapped the current risks for the world covering economic, environmental, geopolitical, social, to technology. As for extreme weather, the impact of which has put pressure on the global economy since last year, it is considered that it will still be the highest risk in 2024.

The data in the report was collected through the Global Risk Perception Survey (GRPS) conducted among 1,490 respondents comprising of academics, business actors, government officials, international communities, and civil society throughout the period of September 4th to October 9th, 2023.

The threat to the environment caused by global warming is a very serious challenge that must be addressed by all countries in the world.

GRPS respondents have identified extreme weather as the top risk the world will face this year, considering the El Nino is still predicted to intensify in the early year and last until May 2024. This situation will impact the disruption of stock and the increase in prices of staple food due to the potential for harvest failure.

Apart from pushing up food prices, the impact of extreme weather plus the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and Russia-Ukraine, which will disrupt food and energy supply chains globally.

El Nino is essentially a natural cycle of warm and cold temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, several studies have shown that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activity has caused the intensity of El Nino to become stronger and more extreme.

LAPORAN RISIKO GLOBAL 2024 FORUM EKONOMI DUNIA

The results of the survey reflect the perceptions of respondents regarding the risks that will infect the world in 2024 based on the Global Risk Report 2024 released by the World Economic Forum.

Executive Director of WEF, Saadia Zahidi, stated that the environmental threat caused by global warming is currently a very serious challenge that needs to be addressed promptly by all countries in the world.

"World leaders must unite to overcome short-term crises and lay the foundation for a more resilient, sustainable, and inclusive future," he said as reported by Reuters on Thursday.

The biggest challenge facing the world in the next ten years comes from environmental risks. In order, the greatest risks start with a failure to mitigate climate change, followed by risks of failing to adapt to climate change, loss of biodiversity and ecological collapse, as well as scarcity of natural resources.

Also Read: The Enormous Threat of Environmental Disasters in the World

Director of Macro Planning and Statistics at the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) Eka Chandra Buana said that his agency had mapped nine global risks that had the potential to disrupt domestic economic activity in the next five years.

The two highest risks are the risk of failure to adapt to climate change and the risk of extreme weather events that occur due to climate change, followed by deglobalization, job crises, debt crises, geo-economic confrontation, cyber resilience failure risk, loss of biodiversity, and a dramatic increase in asset prices.

Regarding the impact of climate change, Bappenas also predicts the economic losses that Indonesia will suffer due to the lack of efforts to capture greenhouse gas concentrations or carbon emissions simultaneously during the period of 2020-2024 will reach Rp 544 trillion.

Therefore, in the Government Work Plan (RKP) 2024, Bappenas targets a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 27.27 percent. "To achieve this target, a fundamental transformation is needed through energy transition, stronger and broader implementation of low-carbon development, and circular economy," said Eka.

The threat of disinformation

Outside extreme weather, the Global Risk Report 2024 notes that misinformation and disinformation will become serious threats in the next two years. Misinformation is false information believed to be true by those who spread it. Meanwhile, disinformation is false information intentionally created with the aim of misleading the public.

The threat of misinformation and disinformation is becoming increasingly serious as more than 50 countries around the world will hold general elections (elections) in 2024.

The Global Risk Report 2024 document also highlights the potential economic uncertainty that could occur this year, given that more than 3 billion people are in countries holding elections, including the United States, India, and Indonesia.

Also Read: Decarbonization Away from Fire

The economy has the potential to be pressured by high borrowing costs following inflation shocks, just as a major election agenda is underway. This could bring enormous pressure to the world in the coming months.

Zahidi stated that the potential spread of false news and disinformation during the 2024 election years will be a major issue that stakeholders will discuss in the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Monday (15/1/2024).

"The economic difficulties faced by many people and the increasing synthetic content, coupled with entering the election year where the public can make decisions about who will lead them," said Zahidi.