Current Earth Situation and Danger Signals for the Future

The current atmosphere of the earth is disturbing, temperatures are heating up, and a number of disasters have occurred in various parts of the world. There is still another threat of a food crisis that will deepen before our eyes.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Situasi Bumi Terkini dan Sinyal Bahaya untuk Masa Depan

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Asep used a forked hoe to loosen the soil in a dry field in Sirnajati Village, Cibarusah District, Bekasi Regency, West Java on Thursday (24/8/2023).

The concentration of greenhouse gases, global sea surface temperature, and ocean heat content have reached record highs, while the extent of Antarctic sea ice has reached a record low. Forest fires and crop failures have triggered a food crisis. With El Nino still ongoing, we must still prepare for a worse situation in the coming years.

The 33rd annual State of the Climate report on world climate, led by scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), provides a comprehensive update on the current state of the earth. Published Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society on Wednesday (6/9/2023), the report was written by 570 scientists from 60 countries.

Data is collected by ground-based stations and environmental monitoring instruments located in ice, water, and outer space. This provides a comprehensive picture of earth's climate indicators and important weather events.

The signal regarding the higher temperature at present has been evident from a series of heat waves in 2023.

"This report is an international effort to better understand global climate conditions and our capacity to observe them," said NCEI Director Derek Arndt. "It's like an annual physical examination of the Earth system and serves the present and future generations by documenting and sharing data that indicate the increasingly extreme and changing conditions in a warming world."

Increased greenhouse gas emissions

One of the key findings of this international report is the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere reaching a new record high. Carbon dioxide, methane, and dinitrogen oxide⁠—the main greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere⁠—once again reached a record high concentration in 2022.

The average annual global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 417.1 parts per million (ppm). This amount is 50 percent higher than pre-industrial levels in 1850-1900 and 2.4 ppm higher than in 2021. This level is the highest in modern history and in paleoclimatic records dating back 800,000 years.

The annual concentration of methane in the atmosphere has also reached a record high, increasing by 165 percent compared to pre-industrial levels and by about 14 parts per billion (ppb) from 2021. The annual increase of 1.3 ppb for dinitrogen oxide in 2022, similar to the high growth rate in 2020 and 2021, is higher than the average increase during 2010-2019 (1.0 ± 0.2 ppb). This indicates an increase in dinitrogen oxide emissions in recent years.

With the increase of greenhouse gases, the warming trend continues worldwide. Various scientific analyses show that the global annual surface temperature ranges from 0.25 to 0.30 degrees Celsius above average from 1991-2020. This places 2022 among the six hottest years since recording began in the mid to late 1800s.

Also read: Ocean Heats Fast to Record Highs

Although 2022 is among the six hottest years ever recorded, the presence of La Nina has had a cooling effect on global temperatures in 2022 compared to years with El Nino or El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions. Nevertheless, 2022 is the hottest La Nina year ever recorded, surpassing the previous record set in 2021.

The temperature data used for analysis in this report concludes that the last eight years (2015-2022) are the eighth hottest years recorded. The global average surface temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.08-0.09 degrees Celsius per decade since 1880 and at a rate twice as fast since 1981.

The global ocean heat and sea level have reached new records. The global ocean heat content, measured from the surface to a depth of 2,000 meters, continues to increase and reached a new record in 2022. The global sea level average also reached a new high for 11 consecutive years, reaching approximately 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began.

AP PHOTO/RICK BOWMER

Panorama of the receding waters of the Great Salt Lake, Utah, United States, Tuesday (6/9/2022). The heat wave at that time was predicted to be the hottest and longest on record in several states in September.

A heatwave has also broken temperature records across the planet. In July 2022, a 14-day heatwave hit western Europe. A weather station in England recorded a temperature of 40 degrees Celsius for the first time, over 100 stations in France broke all-time temperature records, and stations in at least six other European countries recorded all-time high temperatures.

The extremely high temperatures of the summer season in Europe have resulted in the melting of glaciers in the Alps, which has never happened before, with more than 6 percent of its volume lost in Switzerland during 2022. The record-breaking summer heat in Central and East Asia has caused severe droughts that have impacted more than 38 million people and resulted in a direct economic loss of 4.75 billion US dollars.

Meanwhile, the Arctic experienced its fifth hottest year on record in the past 123 years. The year 2022 marks the ninth consecutive year of Arctic temperature anomalies higher than the global average anomalies. This provides further evidence of a process known as Arctic amplification, a physical process that causes the region in the North Pole to warm faster than other regions on the planet. Since 2012, the Arctic has had almost no ice that is more than four years old.

Also read: Asia roasted by extreme heat, Indonesia's highest temperature recorded in Ciputat

The impact of the changes on earth can also be seen from the increasing intensity of tropical cyclones. Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in 2022 was close to the average, their impact was stronger, bringing about destruction. There were 85 tropical storms during the last hurricane season in the northern and southern hemispheres. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and destructive post-tropical cyclone in Canadian Atlantic history.

Storm Ian has killed more than 100 people and became the third most damaging disaster in the United States with a cost of 113 billion US dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai brought down rainfall of 2,044 mm in the Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm caused 121 fatalities in Madagascar.

AP/SATELLITE IMAGES MAXAR TECH

The satellite imagery provided by Maxar Technologies shows the condition of roads, fields, and the main city of Nosy Varika in Madagascar after being hit by flooding from Cyclone Batsirai on Tuesday (7/2/2022).

Executive Director of the American Meteorological Society, Paul Higgins, stated that the Climate Status report in 2022 can help understand the climate system, human impact on climate, and potential consequences. "This report should be able to help inform the necessary decisions to empower humanity and all life to thrive for future generations," he said.

More extreme

The conditions in 2022 indicate the strengthening of various global warming parameters. What we witnessed in 2023 is even more extreme. July 2023 was the hottest month on record, with scorching heat in many regions of the northern hemisphere and this continued until August.

Forest fires have ravaged most of Canada, causing devastating destruction and tragic deaths in Hawaii, and resulting in major damage and loss of life in the Mediterranean region. This has created hazardous levels of air quality for millions of people and sent smoke clouds across the Atlantic and towards the North Pole.

With the re-emergence of El Nino in 2023, this year's global average temperature is predicted to exceed that of 2022. Signals of the current heat wave are already visible from a series of heat waves in 2023.

A separate report by Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)-EU revealed that the Earth has just experienced a record-breaking three consecutive months of heat, from June to August 2023. According to the report, August 2023 reached the hottest recorded temperature ever, with a significant difference, and was the second hottest month after July 2023. Overall, the August temperature was about 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial average from 1850-1900.

Also read: Earth Experiences Three Hottest Months and Antarctic Sea Ice at Lowest Point

Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Petteri Taalas said that future situations are feared to be even more extreme, considering the impact of the current El Nino has not yet reached its peak. "It should be noted that this (record temperature) occurred before we saw the full warming impact of the El Nino event, which usually occurs in the second year after it occurred," he said.

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

Residents are fishing taking advantage of the low tide of Cisadane River at Pintu Air 10, Tangerang City, Banten, on Thursday (27/7/2023). The river is experiencing low tide due to the dry season.

A report from WMO in May 2023 said that there was a 98 percent chance that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record and a 66 percent chance of temperatures rising above 1.5 degrees Celsius from the 1850-1900 temperature for at least one of the next five years.

The current impact of the climate crisis has hit the food sector hard. In late July 2023, India stopped exporting non-basmati white rice to control domestic price spikes due to a decrease in local availability caused by a series of weather-related disasters. The wheat harvest in Australia was also affected, adding to food shortages and price spikes caused by the war in Ukraine.

Observing the current trend, it seems that the future climate situation will be more ominous. In addition to the strengthening direct impacts on extreme weather, the food crisis will be deeper.