Extreme Weather Strengthens, El Nino Predicted until February 2024

Summer extremes continue to strengthen and surface temperature records are breaking again in a number of countries. The threat of drought and forest fires has also strengthened as El Nino is predicted to continue until February 2024.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI.

KOMPAS/DIONISIUS REYNALDO TRIWIBOWO

A joint team of forest and land firefighters in Palangkaraya city struggled to put out a fire in peatlands suspected to have been caused by human activity on Hiu Putih Road, Palangkaraya city, Central Kalimantan, on Sunday (30/7/2023).

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - The extreme summer season is intensifying and surface temperature records are breaking again in several countries throughout August 2023. The threat of drought and forest fires is increasing along with El Nino which is predicted to continue until February 2024.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning about moderate and severe heat threats in the third week of August 2023 for Europe. Some of the countries at risk of heat exposure include France, Switzerland, Germany, Poland, Croatia, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Austria, and Lithuania.

In the context of Indonesia, the Coordinator of Climate Variability Analysis at BMKG, Supari, stated that BMKG is still analyzing the development of El Nino and its implications. "We will soon release the data together with the latest analysis for the second decade of August," he said on Monday (21/8/2023) in Jakarta.

There is a high confidence that climate change caused by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions is the main driver.

Climate expert from WMO, Alvaro Silva, stated that the frequency and intensity of many extreme events, such as heat waves and high rainfall, have increased in the last few decades and will continue to strengthen amid global warming. "There is high confidence that climate change caused by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions is the main driver," he said in a press release on Saturday (19/8/2023).

CHOE YOUNG-SOO/YONHAP VIA AP

World Scout Jamboree participants cool off with water at a scout camping site in Buan, South Korea on Friday, August 4th, 2023. More than 100 people have been treated for heat-related illnesses as South Korea experiences one of its hottest summers in recent years.

According to a report by Meteo-France, during the weekend of August 19-20, the maximum temperature reached 40 degrees Celsius in some parts of southern France. The situation is caused by strong high pressure and warm subtropical air from North Africa, resulting in the most intense heat wave of the summer of 2023.

Meteo-Suisse has issued a level 3 yellow warning for most of their areas, with maximum daytime temperatures between 33 and 35 degrees Celsius and high nighttime temperatures.

Morocco even set a new national temperature record of 50.4 degrees Celsius in Agadir on August 11. For the first time in their history, ground surface temperatures exceeded 50 degrees Celsius.

Also Read: The Threat of El Nino and Rice Production

Turkey reports new national temperature record of 49.5 degrees Celsius on August 15, surpassing the previous record of 49.1 degrees Celsius in July 2021. Many regions in the Middle East also experience temperatures above 50 degrees Celsius.

Spain, including the Canary Islands, and Portugal are also experiencing extreme heat, triggering a high risk of severe wildfires. On August 17, a major fire in Tenerife continued to rage out of control, with more than 2,600 hectares of land burned and people evacuated from several locations.

Also Read: Earth Boils, Disasters Everywhere

The Japan Meteorological Agency also reported prolonged heat waves, with many station records broken. At the same time, they also issued warnings for heavy rain and floods due to the emergence of a tropical storm.

AFP/JUSTIN SULLIVAN

Volunteers and members of the Long Beach Fire Department filled sandbags at Belmont Shore Beach on Sunday (20/8/2023), in Long Beach, California, USA.

Meanwhile, the United States National Hurricane Center reported on the threat of hurricane Hilary which escalated to Category 4 on August 18. Maximum wind speeds increased to near 220 kph, with higher gusts. Hurricane Hilary is approaching the Baja California Peninsula in Mexico over the weekend, August 19-20.

El Niño continues

The extreme weather that has hit the world is predicted to continue, as indicated by the latest report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) regarding El Nino. It is stated that there is a possibility of more than 95% occurrence of El Nino that will last until February 2024, accompanied by a wide range of climate impacts.

"Our global climate model predicts that the warmer than average Pacific Ocean conditions will not only persist during the winter season, but will also continue to increase," wrote NOAA on its official website."

In the latest weekly data from NOAA, it is mentioned that the sea surface temperature in the Nino 4 region is 0.9 degrees Celsius, Nino 3.4 is 1.2 degrees Celsius, Nino 3 is 1.8 degrees Celsius, and Nino 1+2 reaches 3.3 degrees Celsius.

NOAA

The anomaly of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, which marks the occurrence of El Nino.

Previously, El Nino was officially declared to occur since the beginning of June 2023. The El Nino phenomenon is an event of increased sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific, which causes a rise in air temperature throughout the world.

The impact of this phenomenon is causing more rain and storms in the southern part of the United States, southeastern South America, the Horn of Africa, and eastern Asia. Meanwhile, Australia and Indonesia are at risk of experiencing longer droughts, which could potentially increase wildfires.