Indonesia, Myanmar and ASEAN

Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has put ASEAN in a tight corner. The problems in Myanmar have become more complicated as a result of various forms of foreign interference and interests.

When regional leaders convene for the 42nd ASEAN Summit in Labuan Bajo, East Nusa Tenggara, the ASEAN member states, especially Indonesia as this year’s chair, will face at least two main challenges: the issues of Myanmar and the Indo-Pacific.

Of course, apart from these challenges, there are other items to discuss, such as strengthening post-Covid-19 economic recovery, economic resilience so ASEAN remains the epicenter of economic growth, religious networking, local currency transactions, ecosystem issues and enhancing cooperation.

But these two challenges will stand in the way of realizing ASEAN, according to President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, as “stable and peaceful, an epicenter for global stability that becomes a dignified region upholding humanity and democracy”, so ASEAN remains important, relevant and is able to sustain its unity and centrality to maintain peace and stability in the region.

The first challenge is how to resolve the political and humanitarian crises in Myanmar so ASEAN can focus on accelerating community building. Thus far, the Myanmar issue has taken ASEAN hostage, even if it is an old problem.

Also read:

> Indonesia and the Myanmar Issue

> Restoring Myanmar’s Democracy

The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) ousted civilian power through a coup in 1962 under the leadership of Gen. Ne Win. The military junta then replaced representative democracy and ruled for the next 26 years.

In 1988, the military used force to quell protesters who opposed its rule, killing at least 3,000 people and displacing thousands of others. Two years later in 1990, the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi won the election, but this victory was not acknowledged by the military, which then seized power.

The military ruled for 25 years until the NLD again won the elections in 2015, interspersed with only a brief civil administration. For a time, the people of Myanmar enjoyed a respite, until on 1 Feb. 2021, the military led by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing staged another coup.

The unconstitutional action was taken after the military’s proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), suffered a great loss to the NLD in the 2020 elections. The NLD won 396 of the 476 parliamentary seats (83 percent), while the USDP only won 33 seats.

For a time, the people of Myanmar enjoyed a respite, until on 1 Feb. 2021, the military led by Gen. Min Aung Hlaing staged another coup.

The NLD’s victory was unacceptable to the military junta. Moreover, Aung Hlaing did not like Suu Kyi. The two have been rivals since 2015 for reasons related to defending the constitution. In chapter 417 of the constitution, declaring a state emergency for one year is possible if the event of a threat that “can destroy unity or destroy national solidarity, or which can lead to loss of sovereignty” (Gregory B. Poling and Simon Tran Hudes, 2021).

The junta, officially known as the State Administrative Council, arrested and charged de facto civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi with corruption and other crimes. Suu Kyi, members of parliament from the NLD and other parties, and many activists were placed under house arrest.

Secondly, ASEAN is located at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, a dynamic region that is a center of economic growth. The Indo-Pacific is the most contested region in the world, especially between the United States and China. It is not the Middle East or Europe anymore. There will always be tension in regions where there is a clash of interests between superpowers and middle powers.

Hence, global security and prosperity depend on how tensions in this region are managed. Many countries have devised Indo-Pacific strategies, but because most of them were developed in anticipation of possible conflict, the military development we have seen in recent years has instead fueled tensions. Thus, ASEAN is determined to keep the Indo-Pacific region peaceful, stable and prosperous amid a competition between superpowers: the US and China.

Challenging

Since the 2021 coup, Myanmar has put ASEAN in a tight corner. In fact, President Jokowi has said that ASEAN “needs to become a dignified region that upholds humanity and democracy”. However, what the Myanmar military is doing is contrary to ASEAN’s aims.

This is due to a principle that ASEAN adheres to firmly, namely that of noninterference, under which each member state has agreed not to interfere with the internal affairs of another member. It may be that, for example, the military authorities in Myanmar are “misusing” this principle by “taking advantage” of it while still destroying democracy and violating human rights.

The World Report 2023 from Human Rights Watch explains this. Since the coup on 1 Feb. 2023, the Myanmar military has brutally crushed anyone opposed to its rule. The military has committed mass killings, arbitrary arrests, torture, sexual violence and other atrocities deemed crimes against humanity.

Freedom of speech and assembly is also highly restricted. According to a report by the United Nations Human Rights Office dated 3 March 2023, from 1 Feb. 2022 to 31 Jan. 2023, at least 2,940 people have been killed and 17,572 people detained at the hands of the Myanmar military. Nearly 80 percent of the country’s 330 cities have been affected by armed conflict.

Also read:

> ASEAN Gives Myanmar an Ultimatum

> ASEAN to be More Assertive with Myanmar

The military junta is very powerful. That is Myanmar’s first and main problem. It has enjoyed power since the country was established in 1948. Because of this, Myanmar historian Thant Myint-U (2019) wrote: “the modern state of Burma was born as a military ‘hostage’”. After a brief period of quasi-democracy, the military led by Gen. Ne Win took control of Burma in a coup in 1962.

Following the coup, the military immediately banned all opposition parties and nationalized the country’s key industries and businesses. It remains in power to this day and views itself as a guardian of national unity.

The second issue is that the people are fragmented. According to Myanmar historian Kyaw Thet, political integration is a large and unresolved issue, and interethnic enmity was triggered by the military regime, which was obsessed with achieving national unity by removing the Bamar ethnic majority. For ethnic minorities, national unity meant forced submission under Burmese domination (Billy Ford, Ye Myo Hein, 2022).

The problems in Myanmar have become more complicated as a result of various forms of foreign interference and interests.

According to Ethnic Groups of Myanmar: An Ethnological Guide to Burmese Tribes (2020), Myanmar currently has a population of around 55 million people. Of that figure, 68 percent belong to the Bamar, or Burman, ethnic group. Myanmar is home to 135 ethnic groups that speak 100 different dialects and languages.

Over the past 60 years, many minority ethnic groups have struggled for independence and separation from Myanmar. They also demand their rights to govern land, resources and education, and question the dominance of the Bamar ethnic majority. However, the military’s increasingly brutal crackdown following the 2021 coup has led the Bamar majority to stand in solidarity with minority groups, forming armed units to resist the military.

The problems in Myanmar have become more complicated as a result of various forms of foreign interference and interests. The countries that share a border with Myanmar, namely China, India, Bangladesh, Laos, Thailand and Russia, as well as international crime networks (Myanmar Study Group, 1 Feb. 2022) with their respective interests, have involved themselves in Myanmar. Myanmar’s location makes it a strategic point for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (as China’s “backdoor” to the Indian Ocean), but it also serves as India’s corridor to the South China Sea.

China has economic interests in Myanmar. For one, natural gas from Myanmar could help China reduce its dependence on imports from Australia. Access to the Indian Ocean would also allow China to import oil and gas from the Middle East, Africa and Venezuela, without ships having to pass through the South China Sea to reach Chinese ports. These are the interests of only China, and does not include those of India, Thailand or Russia.

Myanmar has also been targeted by arms manufacturers. According to a report dated 16 Jan. 2023 by the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, the country has been producing its own weapons thus far. This is because the Myanmar military’s Directorate of Defense Industries (DDI) obtains raw materials, technology and know-how, both licensed and unlicensed, from a number of companies in several countries. The DDI works with state companies, such as China North Industries Group Corporation Limited (Norinco), as well as Italy, Germany, Singapore, Israel, South Korea, North Korea, China and Ukraine.

Cannot rush

These complex conditions in the field and the Myanmar military’s strong position has led to a temporary conclusion that there is no quick solution to this political, military and humanitarian crisis that has lasted seven and a half decades. Indeed, there is an imbalance between the ruling military and armed resistance groups.

However, even that is no guarantee that a settlement can be reached quickly, although there are also armed groups that the military can embrace. Instead, the country is only “back on its path before 2010 [at the hands of the military] after a decade of being astray”.

As a result, more internal instability and turmoil and prolonged economic gloom has ensued. Going forward, Myanmar will grow increasingly dependent on China and Russia. Experience has shown that excluding Myanmar always leads to failure. Kishore Mahbubani (2011) said the US and the European Union isolated Myanmar for two decades, which yielded no results except that the military grew stronger.

On the other hand, engaging with the people of Myanmar could bring about change.

Also read:

> Myanmar Coup and ASEAN Standpoint

So this is what Indonesia and ASEAN are generally doing. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said Indonesia had opened up as much engagement (two-way communication) as possible in order to listen to both sides and try to bridge the differences in their current positions. Indonesia is communicating with the Myanmar military, the National Unity Government of Myanmar (NUG) as well as armed ethnic groups and several political parties.

Perhaps this is what the ASEAN states need to agree on at the Summit, including those states directly adjacent to Myanmar. After that, engagement must be strengthened, expanded and intensified. In short, ASEAN not only needs to but also has to unite in attitude, heart and steps in its efforts to resolve the Myanmar issue, and not go at it alone. ASEAN must also ensure that Myanmar truly adheres to and implements the previously agreed five-point consensus (5PC).

So far, there is an impression that Myanmar has been ridiculing the content and spirit of the 5PC, for example by taking action even beyond the bounds of humanity against resistance groups and not treating them as legitimate dialogue partners.

The military junta’s statement that it will start implementing the 5PC after defeating “the terrorists” (armed resistance groups) and restoring the country’s “stability” is tantamount to admitting that it is not and will never be willing to implement the agreement.

The fate of Myanmar has major implications for a free and open Indo-Pacific.

KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO

Trias Kuncahyono

Trias Kuncahyono, Senior journalist

This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia.