Myanmar Coup and ASEAN Standpoint
Just three months after holding democratic elections and a civilian victory under the National League for Democracy (NLD), political crisis has returned to Myanmar.
Just three months after holding democratic elections and a civilian victory under the National League for Democracy (NLD), political crisis has returned to Myanmar.
Right on the day that had been set for the inauguration of the new parliamentarians on 1 February 2021, the military under Gen. Min Aung Hlaing declared a state of emergency and forcibly arrested the de facto civilian leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and a number of other civilian leaders.
The signal of a threat of military coup actually had been felt a few days before it happened. Tensions between the military group and the civilian government over the election result that did not match the expectations of the military camp had been predicted to lead to a coup. Electoral fraud is used as a pretext even though the fraud cannot be proven by the existing legal procedures.
This military coup was not the first in Myanmar. The military junta, which took power in 1962, only fulfilled its promise to hold elections nearly 30 years later, after the big riots of 1988. However, the same pattern was used by the junta in 1990 when the election in that year was won by the NLD and leaving the military-backed party, the National Unity Party, facing defeat. Since this election, the junta has expressed dislike for the NLD.
Global reaction and ASEAN standpoint
The coup on 1 February 2021 drew international criticism. The United States, Australia, India, England, Japan, Canada and the UN Secretary General strongly condemned this action. Likewise, the ASEAN countries also showed their responses.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia issued an official statement, urging all parties in Myanmar to exercise restraint and promote dialogue to find common solutions using the principles stipulated in the ASEAN Charter.
In line with Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore have also expressed their serious attention to the democracy process in Myanmar. However, different stances were shown by Cambodia, Thailand and the Philippines. The three countries argued that this was Myanmar\'s internal affairs.
This kind of chairman\'s statement is a common step in ASEAN when they cannot agree on a joint statement regarding the development of the situation.
In the midst of different views of its member countries, Brunei Darussalam, which this year holds the chairmanship of ASEAN, has succeeded in taking quick steps by formulating four points of statements through the ASEAN Secretariat. This kind of chairman\'s statement is a common step in ASEAN when they cannot agree on a joint statement regarding the development of the situation. However, the statement was still consulted with other ASEAN members, including Myanmar (Sharon Seah, 2021).
As predicted, this statement is certainly not far from standard principles in ASEAN regarding non-interference. Although it must be admitted, the statement of the ASEAN Chair this time is much firmer with an emphasis: "Political stability in ASEAN member countries is important to achieve a peaceful, stable and prosperous ASEAN Community".
(In this combination of file photos created on December 5, 2019, Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi (L) attends the 35th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Bangkok on November 4, 2019 and Myanmar military chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing attends the 71th anniversary of Martyrs\' Day in Yangon on July 19, 2018. - The Myanmar military launched a ferocious crackdown against its Rohingya Muslim population in 2017, driving about 740,000 into neighbouring Bangladesh. On December 10, 2019, the UN\'s top court, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), is hearing a case brought by Gambia accusing Myanmar of genocide against the Rohingya.
The question is: Does ASEAN really not have the authority to proactively pay attention to the situation in Myanmar which is considered to be its domestic affair?
On the one hand, it can be understood that this military coup is purely an internal problem of Myanmar. First, this military coup underlined that the Tatmadaw had basically never truly handed over power to civilians. Although the military junta was disbanded in 2011, Myanmar\'s domestic politics has never been far from military interference.
The 2008 Constitution established by the Tatmadaw, and continues to be effective until today, was constructed clearly from the very beginning to give privileges to the junta. The military continues to exert influence in the government through a political party which is fully supported by the military. The military shares 25 percent of all seats in parliament. The positions of Minister of Home Affairs, Minister of Defense and Minister of Border Security must be in the hands of the military.
In fact, by using a pretext of unproven electoral fraud it could even become the basis for the military to do a coup.
Second, the military\'s forcible takeover of power ultimately portrays a bleak future for a stable civilian leadership in Myanmar. In fact, by using a pretext of unproven electoral fraud it could even become the basis for the military to do a coup. As long as the 2008 Constitution, which allows the military to stage coups and other attempts to reduce military power, remains unchanged, it will be difficult for Myanmar to maintain a stable civilian government.
However, it is acknowledged that the steps to amend the constitution are also not easy. In fact, concerns that the newly sworn in parliament will amend the 2008 Constitution appear to be the main reason behind this coup. It is clear that the military interests will be disturbed by this amendment plan.
Instead of seeing this “successful” coup as military victories, the incident should have been looked at differently. The NLD\'s landslide victory in the November 2020 elections (83 percent) basically represents the aspirations of Myanmar citizens to end military rule. On the one hand, this figure certainly disrupts the military\'s 25 percent share in parliament. On the other hand, this figure cannot be ignored, and at the same time it must be able to prove that 83 percent of pro-civilian Myanmar citizens will be able to bring the situation back into civilian hands.
Meanwhile, it must also be understood that this military coup has regional impacts, especially on ASEAN\'s image as the only regional organization in the region. However, the ASEAN Charter has firmly stated its commitment to uphold the principles of democracy, human rights, rule of law and good governance.
It is clear that the forcible takeover of power by the military is a violation of this principle. This was confirmed in the statement of ASEAN leaders immediately after the March political crisis occurred. Furthermore, this statement calls out that considering political stability in ASEAN member countries is important in achieving a peaceful, stable, and prosperous ASEAN community, thus ASEAN encourages dialogue, reconciliation and returns to normal situations according to the hopes and interests of the Myanmar people.
However, it must also be admitted that the objective of the democratic principles referred to in the ASEAN Charter from the beginning was not aimed at changing the political system of its member countries into a liberal democracy.
Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, fifth from left, and ASEAN leaders leave the stage following a brief group photo at the start of the ASEAN Plus China Summit in the ongoing 33rd ASEAN Summit and Related Summits Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2018 in Singapore. From left, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia, Myanmar Leader Aung San Suu Kyi, President Rodrigo Duterte of The Philippines, Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc of Vietnam, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore, Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha of Thailand, Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei, Prime Minister Hun Sen of Cambodia, President Joko Widodo of Indonesia.
Referring to Luhulima (2016), the style of democratization in ASEAN is "gated democracy", meaning that regional and international pressure to make political changes in ASEAN countries is hindered by ASEAN\'s own principles which place national laws as a priority in democracy in ASEAN. As a result, ASEAN is not far from its position as the dependent variable of the interests of its member countries, which still have various values and political systems.
ASEAN reputation stakes
Apart from ASEAN\'s own uncertainty about the principles of democracy it adheres to, the statement of ASEAN leaders which is based on their commitment to upholding democracy is very timely even though there are differences of views among its member countries. Some ASEAN member countries consider this an internal problem for Myanmar.
The non-interference principle may be used as a reason (for not pushing Myanmar), but it is impossible for the second time that ASEAN\'s image should be at stake regarding Myanmar. After ASEAN is deemed unable to deal with Myanmar in the Rohingya case, of course this Myanmar political crisis will again put ASEAN\'s reputation at stake.
In the near future, it is certainly right for ASEAN to open a dialogue with Myanmar\'s junta leaders, not in order to interfere in domestic affairs, but to bring Myanmar back to the path of democratization that has been pioneered in hobbling ways for a decade.
The points formulated in this official statement deserve appreciation. Emphasis on dialogue and consultation is in accordance with ASEAN principles and in that way ASEAN should open itself up to Myanmar. In the near future, it is certainly right for ASEAN to open a dialogue with Myanmar\'s junta leaders, not in order to interfere in domestic affairs, but to bring Myanmar back to the path of democratization that has been pioneered in hobbling ways for a decade.
The problems faced by Myanmar have finally reopened the debates that had occurred in ASEAN when formulating the ASEAN Security Community, which was pioneered by Indonesia. Indonesia basically continues to support the principle of non-interference in domestic affairs of each ASEAN member country, but Indonesia wants this principle not to be interpreted rigidly and to be applied more flexibly.
Thus, Indonesia hopes that ASEAN member countries will be more open to suggestions from other members in the event of problems or crises. However, Indonesia’s idea which was considered too far away and radical at that time was opposed by other member states.
With the principle of flexible non-interference, the dialogue process between ASEAN leaders and the military junta government in Myanmar can be carried out. This dialogue process can take the form of a special retreat related to the Myanmar issue or a special focus on Myanmar at the 2021 ASEAN Summit.
Myanmar State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi arrives for a plenary session during the 34th ASEAN Summit in Bangkok, Thailand, June 22, 2019.
The junta leader\'s promise to hold elections within one year is one of the crucial things that ASEAN can guard. Certainty about the organization of this election is important for ASEAN given the greater impact that will occur if the military junta stay in power sustainably in Myanmar, especially on ethnic minority groups. Aung San Suu Kyi\'s silence at the International Court of Justice in The Hague regarding the military\'s treatment of the Rohingya has led to international distrust of her commitment to human rights protection and disappointment among civil society groups in Myanmar and its networks in Southeast Asia.
Furthermore, referring to ASEAN\'s stance on Myanmar regarding the relevance of the stability of member countries to the achievement of the ASEAN Community, what happened in Myanmar is also part of the ASEAN problem that must be addressed. In line with the people-
centered spirit of the ASEAN Community, which is one of the pillars of the ASEAN Political and Security Community, it clearly indicates that this peaceful relationship is not only between ASEAN countries, but also peaceful relations within their respective countries (Anwar, 2007).
Once again, the eyes of the international community are on ASEAN. ASEAN\'s steps to accompany Myanmar in realizing peace within its country will be a major and important step in realizing the ideal of security and stability in Southeast Asia.
Lidya Cristin Sinaga
Lidya Cristin Sinaga, Researcher at the LIPI Political Research Center
(This article was translated by Kurniawan H. Siswoko).
