The electability of political parties participating in the 2024 election is still dynamic. A number of changes are still possible until the elections on 14 Feb. 2024.
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The results of a survey conducted by Kompas’s Research and Development from 25 Jan. to 4 Feb. showed the first and second order of political parties with the highest electability were held by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra). This order is the same as in the survey conducted by Kompas in October 2022.
However, changes have occurred, for example the Golkar Party which is now in third place with 9 percent, moving the Democratic Party to fourth place (8.7 percent), even though the difference in electability of the two parties is only 0.3 percent or within a margin of error of 2.83 percent. The electability of the Nasdem Party also jumps from 4.3 to 7.3 percent.
The level of electability is of course still likely to change until the elections are held. There are many factors that influence it, such as campaign strategy and figures in the internal party to the presidential and vice-presidential candidates as well as the legislative candidates in the election. If an open proportional system is still used, the role of candidates will be even more important, because there are voters who tend to choose candidates over political parties.
Changes also still occur when the votes obtained by political parties are converted into seats in the legislature. For example, 17,594,839 valid votes for the Gerindra Party in the 2019 elections were converted into 78 seats in the House of Representatives, while Golkar got 85 seats with 17,229,789 valid votes in the elections.
Of course, these various aspects have been calculated and a number of strategies have been prepared by political parties and candidates for the election. The strategy chosen by the political parties as well as the candidates will also show their orientation in the elections: Are they only pursuing power or are there other things they are fighting for, such as strengthening the building of democracy and shared ideals?
This orientation has already been seen, for example, when recruiting candidates. Do political parties do this in a transparent manner by using integrity and capacity measurements, or do they only make their level of popularity and financial ability the main indicator? Then, is the determination of presidential and vice-presidential candidates only based on electability considerations or are there other considerations, such as similarity of vision, that can be seen from track records? Then, do the promises and work programs of the political parties or candidates make sense and have they been fighting for them all this time?
The existence of political parties is a must in democracy and a healthy democracy also requires the existence of healthy political parties. The one-year period until the elections is a valuable time for political parties and candidates to prepare themselves as well as possible for the election. On the other hand, for the community, now is also the right time to start assessing which political parties and candidates are really needed and deserve to be chosen during elections and which are not. Don't make the wrong choice because the impact must be felt for five years.
This article was translated by Hendarsyah Tarmizi.