The Kompas R&D survey shows the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Gerindra Party still have the highest electability, while the Golkar Party overtook the Democrat Party for third place.
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NIKOLAUS HARBOWO, IQBAL BASYARI
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KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO
Golkar Party Deputy Chairperson Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita, Golkar Party Chairperson Airlangga Hartarto, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, and Golkar Party Secretary General Lodewijk Freidrich Paulus (from left to right) pose for a group photo during a meeting at the Golkar Party Office, Slipi, Jakarta, Wednesday (18/1/2023).
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — One year before the general election, the electability of the political parties remains dynamic. Expected to continue fluctuating, electability weighs partly on each party’s policies on presidential candidate nomination for next year’s election.
The Kompas Research and Development survey, conducted in January, shows the PDI-P persisted in the top position for electability at 22.9 percent, which was an increase by 1.8 percent from the October 2022 survey. Second place was still occupied by Gerindra, though the figure decreased by 1.9 percent to 14.3 percent.
Changes occurred in the Democrats and Golkar’s electability. The Democrats, which had consistently sat in third position in the three surveys taken during 2022, fell by 5.3 to 8.7 percent, while Golkar rose by 1.1 percent to 9 percent. This allowed Golkar to overtake the Democrats.
Preference shift
The decline in the Democrats’ electability was in line with the drop of interest among the party’s supporters in Anies Baswedan, the presidential candidate pitched by the Dems and the NasDem Party. Anies’ electability among Democrats’ supporters dropped from 18.9 to 11.3 percent. On the other hand, NasDem saw its supporters’ preference for Anies initially jump 4.6 percent to 22.6 percent. This was in line with a 3 percent increase in the electability of NasDem to 7.3 percent.
Undecided respondents accounted for 16.8 percent, which was an increase from 12 percent in the October 2022 survey.
Contacted on Monday (20/2/2023), PDI-P secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto attributed the party’s electability increase to what he called as the party’s intense collective work of cadres engaging with the community. "It's not like the others who are busily getting themselves in talks about the presidential election and elitist maneuvers," he said.
Being a political party in the supporting coalition of the administration of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo-Vice President Ma'ruf Amin, the PDI-P, he said, was committed to overseeing all the government’s programs. He added that the PDI-P’s increasing electability was on par with the increasing level of public satisfaction with the Jokowi-Amin administration at 69.3 percent, as the latest Kompas survey showed, which was a 7.2 percent rise from the October 2022 survey.
Golkar’s deputy chairperson Nurul Arifin also hailed the government's performance, especially in the economic sector, which he said had brought a positive impact to Golkar, whose chairman Airlangga Hartarto also serves as coordinating economic minister. Gaining positively in public opinion, Golkar, Nurul said, would not let up and instead continue to build on the increasing electability by, among other actions, focusing on luring in undecided voters.
KOMPAS/RONY ARIYANTO NUGROHO
Democratic Party Chairperson Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono delivered a Speech for the Beginning of 2023 at the Democratic Party Office, Jakarta, Thursday (12/1/2023).
Meanwhile, Democrats spokesperson Herzaky Mahendra Putra believed the decline in his party’s electability was just a temporary blip, and hoped the party’s supporters could regain confidence in Anies.
"Our voters may have shifted to NasDem as the first political party to pitch Anies, but that’s only temporary until we make a [final] decision. When the Democrats and Anies [confirm to] stand side by side, our electability will increase again," he said.
When the Democrats and Anies [confirm to] stand side by side, our electability will increase again.
Effendy Choirie, an official of the NasDem central board, said the Democrats and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) could follow in the footstep of NasDem, which appeared to have been able to attract more prospective voters thanks to the party's political stance in supporting Anies. However, he conceded, it was not the only key factor in boosting the party's electability.
“The party must work optimally for itself. Benefitting from supporting Anies, NasDem will continue to work optimally. All need to work simultaneously. We can't rely simply on the factor of presidential nomination. The party must continue its work [program],” he said.
Change factor
Arya Fernandes, head of the political and social change department at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), pointed to several factors that could affect political parties’ electability in the lead-up to polling day, among them being the party’s political approach on balance with their legislative candidates.
Another factor, he said, was the party policies over presidential nomination as to whether it would declare its support for a certain candidate, or go for its own by scouring popular figures with a strong grassroots base. He said these factors had boosted the electability of NasDem and Golkar. Apart from NasDem, which has nominated Anies as its presidential candidate, Golkar decided last month to look to West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil.
Arya predicted that the electability levels would not change significantly, especially for parties whose voter bases were stable and solid, such as the PDI-P, Golkar and Gerindra. The challenge left for them was how they moved forward to maintain the solidity while striving to work on the floating masses to help build their electability further.
It will be a different case for small or medium-level parties. Arya said their electability would largely hinge on their political decisions on the choice of coalition for presidential nomination because of their loyal voter base being not as strong as big parties.
