Political Turbulence 2023

The global situation is now shrouded in a "dark cloud" of economic recession accompanied by a storm of political tension and a tempest of social turmoil as a result of the never-ending Russia-Ukraine war.

This situation is predicted to continue in 2023 and will also hit Indonesia, namely in the form of slowing rate of economic growth, sluggishness in trade, layoffs, rising unemployment, weakening people's purchasing power, increasing social pressure, rising political temperature and heaps of burdens of life.

In fact, 2023 is the start of the year of political enthusiasm ahead of the 2024 simultaneous legislative and presidential election. The problem is, direct elections demand huge funds, both for the organizers and the contestants.

Therefore, they are very vulnerable to money politics, political dowries and various forms of bribery. Meanwhile, economic conditions in 2023 are expected to get even more difficult. Shrouded in dark clouds of economic recession, sociopolitical life in 2023 will likely be haunted by tension, anxiety and uncertainty that can trigger hostility, conflict and division among the people or “the nation's children”.

Also read:

> The World Economy and Us

> Indonesia Can Survive Recession While Economic Growth Slows

If the economic situation continues to worsen in 2023, the concentration of the nation's people will be split between two directions of political participation. First, political participation related to elections (campaigns, mass gathering and processions). Second, non-election political participation (demonstrations, petitions, protests and mass strikes).

These two political participations can collide with each other which can trigger sociopolitical turbulence and escalation of violence. The pressure of an economic recession and the crushing burdens of life can ignite discontent, disappointment and anger with the risk of impeachment -- political turbulence.

Contest in recession

If democracy is interpreted as power in the hands of the people, political participation is a necessity as a "vehicle" to demonstrate people's sovereignty by their political choices at the ballot box to influence political decisions (Dahl, 1971). Political participation is demonstrated by involvement in public contestation among the contestants.

However, with the “representative democracy” being replaced with direct democracy, the culture of “consensus and deliberation” politics was taken over by the culture of "open battle" with all the risks (Fishkin, 2009). An open battle has the risk of escalating friction, disputes and even political clashes, so it requires some kind of balance.

Direct elections have left many problems related to the quality of implementation, the level of people's participation and the division of the people.

"Contestation-inclusiveness" is one such model that combines "public contestation" as an arena for demonstrating accountability and sensitivity to the interests of the people and "inclusiveness" in the form of broad access to the role of the people in political decisions (Vráblíková, 2017). However, the principle of the presidential threshold has changed the character of democratic elections to become exclusive because it "narrows the space" for citizens to choose candidates according to their preferences.

Since the 2004 presidential election, direct elections have left many problems related to the quality of implementation, the level of people's participation and the division of the people. Several indicators suggest this could reappear in 2023.

First, the gap between state ideology that prioritizes "deliberation" and political practices that celebrate "individualism" as an excess of direct democracy. Political practices are uprooted from the nation's cultural roots by celebrating the cult of the individual, personal imagery and manipulation of mass psychology.

Second, direct elections encourage "rule by a few". Even though they are in the grip of an economic recession, the oligarchs will still roam to gain exclusive sociopolitical positions and benefits from elections (Winters, 2011). In the 2024 election, by the power of money, they will still find ways to influence, even control the democratic process. They will "finance" the party they think can advance their interests, especially the costs of political communication, crowd-raising and imaging.

Third, the presidential threshold effect will still lead to the dark alley of dividing the people. A nation with a mutual cooperation spirit is forced to follow a political culture of "individualism" by eliminating the deliberative social foundation.

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> Fostering “Red and White”

> Public Opinion over 2024 Presidential Candidacy

Ironically, the blessing of individual freedom granted by reform is expressed through various hate speeches, war of buzzers, slander, hoaxes and disinformation. Apart from that, the recent movements of political actors have also shown gestures that lead to the threat of the return of national unity if there is no movement for national reconciliation.

Fourth, the faltering of people's trust in election organizers. The experience of the previous presidential election -- which many considered not showing objectivity and neutrality -- still left a scent of distrust among some people in holding the 2024 presidential election with two scenarios.

First, the scenario of decreased political participation in elections due to the apathy of the people in exercising their voting rights. Second, the thickening of distrust actually strengthens the power of civil society to strictly and intensively monitor the course of elections.

Ghosts of Turbulence

Some of the economic and sociopolitical indicators above indicate that 2023 will not be “just fine” economically, socially and politically. The prediction that the global economic recession will continue in 2023 will bring the people to an "intermediate state": between progress and decline, between certainty and uncertainty, between order and chaos. We are led to a situation of "delay": delays in investment, production, distribution and consumption. All of this is the result of psychic pressure of indecision, doubt, anxiety and the edge of chaos.

If the dark clouds of economic recession show no clear signs -- even darker -- 2023 will bring the nation into economic, social and political turbulence. This is the aggregate mixing between order and chaos, between predictable and unpredictable circumstances, between legal determinations, between the forces of rationality and irrationality (Serres, 1996). All cause uncertainty in the economy, politics, law and social -- for example, whether in political turbulence one would still organize elections or postpone them.

Turbulence is instability at various scales, characterized by high "social entropy" when everything goes out of control because of the many noises and everything works randomly (Malaspina, 2018). Everyone tries to save themselves rather than the nation. Turbulence drains energy (financial, physical, psychological and social) and creates a kind of condition of scarcity, even running out of energy (Gleick, 2008).

The energy of the people in 2023 will be drained to face various pressures from the global recession and sociopolitical uncertainties. Increasing the scale and intensity of turbulence can bring disaster. Turbulence due to friction between electoral participation (mass mobilization, processions and political debates) and non-election participation (demonstrations, petitions and mass strikes) can lead to escalation of tensions and clashes of power (Dahl, 1975).

The friction between economic turbulence and political turbulence risks the collapse of the boundaries between "the economic" and "the politic" which lead to anomalies and distortions in democratic practices: transaction politics, money politics or various forms of violence. For example, the domination of the power of money in a democracy will kill the democratic power of the people themselves.

The Russia-Ukraine war is not yet over; it will escalate this turbulence.

Political turbulence is often followed by instant responses, the urge of needs, reflex decisions, temporary coalitions and distortions of policy directions which have the effect of uncertainty. This is the gray line between conflict and cooperation, between division and unity, between rivalries and alliances, between opposition and coalition.

The Russia-Ukraine war is not yet over; it will escalate this turbulence. The major effects of turbulence due to war are felt more during postwar than during war (Rosenau, 1990). This means that the economic, social and political effects of the Russia-Ukraine war will still haunt the lives of the nation's children in 2023.

Ghost Buster

Overcoming the specter of economic recession and political turbulence is a formidable challenge for the nation in the future. With regard to the 2024 simultaneous legislative and presidential elections, integrated efforts must be made to anticipate the division of the people as an excess of open rivalry.

First, there is an urgent need for a "referee" system with integrity, neutrality and trustworthiness in the 2024 simultaneous legislative elections and the presidential election. "Referees" who have high legitimacy improve the quality of democracy. For this reason, the General Elections Commission (KPU) as well as the police and military apparatus must demonstrate integrity, professionalism and accountability and only side with the interests of the nation.

Second, strengthening civil society to inspect, monitor, supervise and evaluate the movements of political actors and election organizers.

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> Managing The Lust for Power

Through civil society, the people can sense "political ghosts", which, through the power of money and for the sake of economic and political gains, stir up the emotions of the people, which lead to division of the nation. For this reason, it is necessary to maximize the function of "counter democracy", namely supervision, monitoring and investigation of the operation of invisible forces that bend democratic principles (Rosanvallon, 2008).

Third, rebuilding the collective awareness of all components of the nation to "take care" of the ideology of the nation-state based on the spirit of brotherhood and mutual cooperation. Under such pressure, the spirit of gotong royong (mutual cooperation) will be tested: is it just jargon or can it become the nation's energy force in facing the crush of economic recession and political turbulence, as the people have shown when dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic?

The year 2023 is a big test for this nation, whether we are able to learn from history or instead allow ourselves to be slipped up by the “same banana skin”, by the same political irrationality -- the division of the nation.

KOMPAS/MOHAMMAD HILMI FAIQ

Yasraf Amir Piliang

Yasraf A Piliang, Social and cultural thinker, ITB

This article was translated by Kurniawan Siswo.