Effects of Ukraine War on Indonesian Defense

AP/VADIM GHIRDA

A Ukrainian serviceman carries an NLAW anti-tank weapon during an exercise in the Joint Forces Operation, in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Feb. 15, 2022. As the U.S. and other NATO members warn of the potential for a devastating war, Russia is not countering with bombs or olive branches -- but with sarcasm.

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto met with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani on Thursday (7/4/2022) and with Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi on Friday (8/4). It is believed that some of their discussions covered Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has also battered Indonesia’s own defense.

After the arms embargo imposed at the end of the New Order, Indonesia has refrained by depending solely on the United States and its allies. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) noted that between 1980-2000, the top five arms importers among 17 countries were Germany, the United Kingdom, the US, the Netherlands and France, which supplied 87.5 percent of Indonesia’s weapons. This changed between 2001 and 2021, when the top five arms importers among 26 countries, namely South Korea, Russia, the Netherlands, the US and the UK, supplied 69.3 percent of the country’s weapons.

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When the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Indonesia’s defense sector was threatened by several issues. First, the UK and Russia are devoting their resources to the war.

These facilities also may not be provided to Russia’s allies.

Inevitably, spare parts and maintenance services for countries that use UK and Russian weapons as part of their national defense weaponry and systems (Alutsista) are neglected. These facilities also may not be provided to Russia’s allies.

In Indonesia, this has primarily affected Sukhoi aircraft and spare parts, as well as large-caliber ammunition and missiles. The list is actually quite long. From Ukraine, Indonesia imports the R-27 R/T for the Sukhoi and the Kozak-2M armored personnel carrier (APC). From Belarus, the country has also imported large-caliber ammunition as well as anti-tank and air defense systems.

From Russia, the Indonesian Air Force operates 16 Sukhoi Su-27S and Su-30MK aircraft, while the Indonesian Army operates Mi-17 and Mi-35P helicopters, each equipped with weapons such as the R73 and R77 air-to-air missiles, while the Mi35P and Sukhoi aircraft are equipped with the Kh29 and Kh59 air-to-surface and anti-tank missiles. The Indonesian Navy also uses Russian missiles, the Yakhnot, on its frigates. The Marines mostly use Russian-made APCs and the BMP-3F infantry fighting vehicle (IFV).

JUAN BARRETO

Members of the Ukrainian community take part in a demonstration against the Russian invasion in Ukraine in front of the Russian Embassy in Bogota, on March 5, 2022.

The second issue, which is related to the financial sanctions, is even more complicated. The financial sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have made it difficult for any country to trade with them. Foreign banks and financial institutions will be most likely reluctant to provide loans for military procurements from the two countries, especially with the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). CAATSA is the US law under which sanctions can be imposed on countries that cooperate with other sanctioned countries, such as Russia.

Alman Helvas Ali, a defense consultant from PT Semar Sentinel, added that CAATSA could also be imposed on spare parts. CAATSA is one of the reasons why the 2018 procurement of the Sukhoi Su-35 still remains unclear today. For example, Alman said, a foreign loan of US$163.8 million was allocated to purchase four types of missiles for the Sukhoi in 2021. He expected this process would be disrupted due to CAATSA.

To remain operational, these missiles must be regularly inspected and maintained by technicians and equipment imported from Russia.

Not only have these two issues affected procurement and maintenance, but it also affects military operations. A Sukhoi TNI Air Force pilot said that the missiles for his planes will expire in the next few years. To remain operational, these missiles must be regularly inspected and maintained by technicians and equipment imported from Russia.

This was confirmed by Agus Setiadji, who heads the Bisnis Indonesia economics school (STIEBI) and was the defense ministry secretary-general from 2019-2020. “The operational aspects of all [weapons and systems] from Russia are, on average, still dependent on their country of origin,” said Agus.

KOMPAS/FAJAR RAMADHAN

Sukhoi SU-30 Combat Aircraft

The third issue is that almost every country is holding on to their weapons in case they are dragged into a bigger war. Not only have gun prices skyrocketed in the market, but also rare items. For example, Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Greece have decided not to sell their used F-16 fighter aircraft. In fact, Greece has completely withdrawn its offer to sell their 12 F-16 C/D Block 30 aircraft to Indonesia.

No flights

In short, Indonesia’s air defense is in a tough spot. The purchasing contract for six Rafale aircraft, which were expected begin arriving in 2023, has been disrupted because Indonesia had not made a down payment. Indonesia currently relies on 33 F-16 aircraft that are over 30 years old and 16 Sukhoi aircraft that are almost 20 years old. Not all aircraft are in prime condition, either. It is possible that the Sukhoi aircraft is not even equipped with weapons or, for the sake of security, in operation.

In the short term, the Defense Ministry needs to map out which countries have received technology transfers from Russia.

Binus University lecturer Currie Maharani proposed that, for the medium term, Indonesia switch its weapons suppliers from Russia to other independent countries. “In the short term, the Defense Ministry needs to map out which countries have received technology transfers from Russia,” said Currie.

It takes a capable and solid government for Indonesia to play its cards right to gain adequate leverage. In the long term, there is no other option but to create a strong domestic defense industry.

(This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia)