Why is Prabowo-Gibran's electability soaring? (1)
Since being paired with Gibran in October 2023, Prabowo's electability has immediately increased drastically.
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The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Mengapa Elektabilitas Prabowo-Gibran Melejit? (1)
The Chairman of Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto (right), was seen riding a horse with President Joko Widodo's son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, at the Garuda Yaksa Padepokan, Prabowo's residential complex in Hambalang, Bogor Regency, West Java, on Saturday (18/6/2022).
Kompas survey records show the electability of the presidential-cawapres pair Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka, up from 39 .4 percent in December 2023 to 58.4 percent on voting day February 14 2024. How did that happen and why did their electability increase drastically?
Prabowo-Gibran's electability spike which was quite high during the four months before voting day meant that the public did not think there would be a drastic change in the contestation situation. The public is even more concentrated on chasing Anies-Muhaimin's electability figures with Ganjar-Mahfud and the strategy of the two pairs entering the second round.
However, all these efforts finally stopped after the results of a quick count (quick count) by survey institutions showed Prabowo-Gibran's clear lead of 30 percent to 40 percent over his opponents. This wide gap is the largest during this decade with three pairs of contestants.
Despite the massive electability advantage of Prabowo-Gibran in the quick count results, the political contest of the 2024 Presidential Election actually takes place in a very dynamic manner, contrary to initial expectations. Results from various survey agencies show that until August 2023, Prabowo's electability is still in tight competition with Ganjar Pranowo.
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The Chairman of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, along with the Mayor of Surakarta, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, were seen at Angkringan Omah Semar in Surakarta, Central Java on Saturday (20/5/2023). On this occasion, Prabowo was supported by a group of volunteer supporters of Gibran and Jokowi.
In fact, after the decline in Ganjar's electability in March 2023 following the issue of the U-20 World Cup, there has been a rebound in Ganjar's electability a month later. The Kompas survey conducted July 27-August 7 2023 showed that Ganjar's electability was starting to recover with an electability of 24.9 percent, slightly ahead of Prabowo who achieved 24.6 percent.
The survey results also noted that during that period the number of loyal voters to President Jokowi who definitely chose a figure supported by Jokowi reached 18.1 percent. Of the total loyal Jokowi voters, only more than 30 percent support Prabowo. Jokowi's endorsement has also proven capable of increasing Prabowo's electability by up to 3.8 percent (Kompas, 25/8/2023).
The PDI-P continued to try to associate Ganjar with Jokowi, including by putting up billboards displaying the togetherness of the two figures. However, in terms of electoral incentives, Ganjar would only see a 0.8 percent increase if supported by Jokowi. Please note that the forbidden words of PBB, PKS, and PPP were not present in this article.
However, the political dynamics had already shifted since the inauguration of Ganjar as the PDI-P presidential candidate on April 21, 2023, even though the event was attended by President Joko Widodo.
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Potential presidential candidate from PDI-P, Ganjar Pranowo, met with thousands of Jokowi volunteers during the post-Ramadan gathering at the Basket Hall of Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta on Sunday (14/5/2023).
Consolidation and seizure of mass supporters
The period from August to October 2023 is a transitional period with a "hesitation" among nationalist voters, whether to choose Ganjar-Mahfud or Prabowo-Gibran. During this period, survey results from several survey institutions show that there is a competition between the number 2 and 3 presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
Both pairs are consolidating and maneuvering politically to gain the attention of nationalist voters. Meanwhile, voters from Islamic political parties/mass bases, both from modernist and cultural streams, are believed to lean towards the Anies-Muhaimin pair supported by PKB, PKS, and Nasdem.
In terms of political party consolidation, there has been a shift in political alliances. Golkar and the National Mandate Party (PAN) have declared support for Prabowo, the Chairman of the Gerindra Party, as a presidential candidate, on Sunday (13/8/2023).
Golkar Party General Chair Airlangga Hartarto and PAN General Chair Zulkifli Hasan declared that their party would join the Gerindra Party coalition which supports Prabowo as a presidential candidate in the 2024 Election.
The support of the PAN is a consequence of the party's efforts to propose Minister of State-Owned Enterprises Erick Thohir as a potential vice presidential candidate to accompany Prabowo. Meanwhile, Airlangga's reasoning is that Golkar Party is more comfortable joining forces with the Gerindra Party because Prabowo was once a part of Golkar during the era of the New Order.
President Joko Widodo, along with Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, visited the bountiful rice harvest in Lajer village, Kebumen Regency, Central Java on Thursday (9/3/2023).
At the same time, Prabowo appears to be continuously getting closer to President Jokowi. Billboards featuring Prabowo alongside President Jokowi have begun to be put up on major roads in several regions across Indonesia. In fact, one of the billboards shows the two figures in a tactical military vehicle: Prabowo in the driver's seat, while Jokowi sits in the passenger seat.
On social media, the potential presidential candidate from the Gerindra Party has been actively posting photos and videos of their togetherness with Jokowi. Prabowo also met with a number of volunteers who supported Jokowi during the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections and who are also supporters of the Mayor of Surakarta, Gibran Rakabuming Raka.
In various activities, Prabowo often mentions that he is not ashamed to learn about politics from Jokowi who defeated him in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections.
In every speech given, whether in his role as the Defense Minister or the General Chairman of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo always mentions the name of Jokowi and his commitment to continue the development programs that have been initiated by the 7th President of Indonesia.
During the September 2023 period, there was a discourse on "two coalition axes" in the 2024 Presidential Election, with Prabowo being paired with Ganjar in one axis, facing Anies-Muhaimin in the other. However, the discourse fell through at the end of the month because the two factions could not find a common ground on who would occupy the presidential and vice-presidential positions.
Relations between Jokowi and PDI-P are increasingly distant
The lack of common ground has made the political dynamics between Jokowi and Ganjar increasingly distant. A significant event that symbolically reflects Jokowi's growing distance from Ganjar's camp took place in Surakarta, Central Java, on Saturday (23/9/2023). The youngest son of President Joko Widodo, Kaesang Pengarep, received a membership card for the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI). Please note that the forbidden words "PBB," "PKS," and "PPP" were not present in this article.
The youngest son of President Jokowi's move inevitably reflects the "breaking of tradition" by the Jokowi family previously identified with the PDI-P. Kaesang's reason for choosing to join PSI is because he feels there is a shared vision, namely the desire for more young people to be involved in politics, rather than being seen as a "political gimmick" to smooth the political maneuvering of the Jokowi family.
Not just accepted as a member, Kaesang was even appointed as the General Chairman of PSI for the period of 2023-2028 during the National Coffee Gathering (Kopdarnas) of PSI's Political Declaration in Jakarta, Monday (25/9/2023), only two days after being accepted as a member of PSI.
The next political dynamics involve the decision of the Constitutional Court regarding the age requirement for presidential and vice-presidential candidacy. As the deadline for the registration of presidential and vice-presidential candidates on October 25, 2023 draws near, the public was shocked by a controversial decision from the Constitutional Court (MK). Case Number 90/PUU-XXI/2023 regarding the review of the minimum age for presidential and vice-presidential candidates in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning Elections was upheld by the MK on Monday (16/10/2023).
The decision stated that presidential and vice presidential candidates who have been elected through elections, whether as members of the DPR/DPD, governors or mayors, can run for office even if they are not yet 40 years old. This is seen as an opportunity for Gibran Rakabuming Raka, whose name has been circulating frequently in Solo-Jakarta in recent weeks and is gaining support among the coalition of Prabowo-supporting political parties.
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The presidential and vice presidential candidate pair, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, registered for the 2024 Presidential Election at the KPU Building in Jakarta on Wednesday (25/10/2023).
Political tension arising from Kaesang's entry into PSI and the possibility of Gibran's name being added was tactically contained by President Jokowi by attending the opening of the PDI-P's Fourth National Working Meeting at JIExpo, Kemayoran, Jakarta on Friday (29/9/2023). In his speech, Jokowi delivered a political message that gave "hope" once again to PDI-P regarding Ganjar's potential successor.
Jokowi revealed that he has conveyed to Ganjar to promptly execute the food sovereignty concept if elected as president. "Earlier, I whispered to him (Ganjar). Sir, after the inauguration, the next day immediately enter into food sovereignty. No need to delay. The planning is being prepared now, so when inaugurated, the next day will directly enter into the work of food sovereignty," said Jokowi.
Also read: Prabowo-Gibran Superior, Undecided Voter Increases
On the other hand, a number of survey institutions that collected data in early-mid October 2023 showed that Prabowo's electability was superior to Ganjar's in a simulation of three presidential candidate names with the difference still being in the margirange. i>noferrors. However, if Gibran's name is included as vice presidential candidate, this advantage will skyrocket even further, leaving Ganjar's electability behind because there are signs of migration of Jokowi voters.
Survey results from a number of institutions at that time also captured a public perception that was quite permissive regarding issues related to the Constitutional Court's decision regarding the age of the vice presidential candidate. With various political dynamics full of surprises until October 2023, the strategy of choosing Gibran as vice presidential candidate is an important factor driving Prabowo-Gibran's electability soaring. (Continued)(R&D KOMPAS)
