The Earth is Too Hot for Farmers

Climate change will reduce crop yields and make food security challenges worse.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Bumi Terlalu Panas untuk Petani

KOMPAS/AHMAD ARIF

Mardiono (54), a vegetable farmer from Kampung Baru, Teluk Bayur Village, Teluk Bayur District, Berau Regency, East Kalimantan, was digging in his field on Saturday (3/6/2023) afternoon. The rise in temperature in Berau, which has reached 0.95 degrees Celsius in the past 16 years, has forced farmers in Kampung Baru to change their working hours to morning before 9:30 a.m. and afternoon until night to avoid heat exposure.

The future of global food production is threatened by rising temperatures, which will not only cause a decline in crop productivity, but also reduce the physical capacity of farmers to work in the agricultural sector. In Indonesia, this phenomenon has already occurred in Berau, East Kalimantan, where farmers have to work in the early hours of the morning and in the evening until late at night to avoid the scorching sun.

The impact of global warming on the food sector is often only seen through the decrease in crop productivity due to exposure to extreme temperatures. A recent report on this matter, for example, was released by researchers from the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), and Kansas State University on Friday (19/1/2024).

In this policy report, it is mentioned that for every 1 degree Celsius of warming, the yield of main crops such as corn, soybeans, and wheat in the Kansas region will decrease by 16-20%. This will reduce gross agricultural income by 7% and cause a 66% drop in net agricultural income.

In this report, researchers mentioned the threshold for extreme heat that can disrupt the productivity of corn, soybeans, and wheat is 32 degrees Celsius. Harvest yields start to decline at that temperature. From 1981 to 1990, Kansas experienced 54 days of extreme heat, from 2011 to 2020 it increased to 57 days.

Research on the impact of climate change on rice plants has also been carried out. According to a report by researchers from Peking University, China and a team in the journal Nature Food on May 4 2023, the decline in rice production in China due to climate change could reach 8.1 percent by 2100. Apart from heat exposure which can trigger drought, a decrease in rice production can also be caused by extreme rain due to climate change.

The impact of climate change on rice production in Indonesia has also been projected to occur. Research by Edvin Adrian and Elza Surmani from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) shows that Indonesia could lose the economic value of rice by an average of IDR 42.4 trillion per year in 2051-2080 and increase to IDR 56.45 trillion per year in 2081- 2100 (Kompas, 24 November 2022).

Also read: Berau Temperature Rise and Mining Permit Problems

NATURE SUSTAINABILITY (2023)

The area exposed to unprecedented heat (≥29 degrees Celsius) is spread over a high population density (number within a tissue cell ~100 square kilometers) for a world population of 9.5 billion (estimated 2070) under conditions of 2.7 degrees Celsius global warming (a) and 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming (b). Source: Lenton; Xu, et al. Nature Sustainability (2023)

Farmer's physical capacity

Not only crop productivity, the impact of global warming can also hit farmers, who support food production. This latest collaborative report by researchers from the United States, England and Australia was published in the journal Global Change Biology on Friday (19/1/2024). Gerald C Nelson from the University of Illinois was the first author of this report.

The research entitled "Global Reductions in Manual Agricultural Work Capacity Due to Climate Change" uses computational models to predict physical work capacity, which is defined as "an individual's work capacity relative to the environment without heat stress". Researchers used various predicted climate change scenarios.

The model was developed by George Havenith, a researcher from Loughborough University, UK, based on data from more than 700 heat stress tests, which involved observing people working in various temperatures and humidity levels, as well as different weather conditions, including sunlight and wind. The maximum work capacity that an individual can achieve in cold weather was used as a benchmark for this study, which is considered to represent 100 percent of physical work capacity.

Capacity reduction means that people are limited in terms of what they can physically do, even if they are motivated to work. This could mean farmers need additional workers to perform the same job or, if those workers are unavailable, it will reduce their harvest.

According to the study, workers in the agricultural sector have already begun to feel the impact, with half of farmers in agricultural land worldwide believed to be working below 86 percent capacity in "recent" climate conditions or during the period 1991-2010. The use of the forbidden words PBB, PKS, and PPP is not applicable in this article.

As the temperature rises, the physical capacity of farmers to work outdoors is said to continue to decline. Based on this model, by the end of this century, labor productivity in regions producing important crops in Southeast Asia and South Asia, West and Central Africa, as well as the northern part of South America, are predicted to experience a decrease in physical work capacity of up to 70 percent.

This research once again demonstrates the significant impact of climate change on life in various parts of the world, and measures its effects on agricultural productivity.

"Consistent assessments conclude that climate change will reduce crop yields and worsen the challenges of food security," said study leader Gerald Nelson.

Not only crops and livestock are affected, but also the agricultural workers who plant, process, and harvest most of the food we need will suffer due to heat exposure which reduces their ability to work in the fields.

As the next step, this study considers the potential for adaptation to mitigate the impact of climate change on agricultural workers. Switching to night work or working in shaded areas to reduce direct sunlight radiation has been proven to result in a 5-10% increase in worker productivity.

The second option being studied is to increase the use of machines and mechanical equipment globally, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where agricultural practices largely involve heavy physical labor.

Regarding the importance of this research, George Havenith from Loughborough University said that this study once again shows the significant impact of climate change on the lives in various regions around the world, and measures its effects on agricultural productivity.

"Understanding the full impact of climate change on worker productivity allows us to predict the economic impact of climate change and guide mitigation efforts that ensure we maintain worker safety while limiting productivity loss," he said.

MACHRADIN WAHYUDI RITONGA

One of the farmers was digging the land to take the fragrant root in Sukamukti Village, Cilawu District, Garut Regency, West Java on Saturday (13/1/2024).

Adaptation of Berau farmers

The impact of rising temperatures on farmer productivity has also occurred in Indonesia. The Kompas report on June 5 2023 showed that vegetable farmers in Kampung Baru, Teluk Bayur Village, Teluk Bayur District, Berau Regency, East Kalimantan, could not farm after 10.00 because the temperature was too hot.

As conveyed by Mardiono (54), a farmer, he must adapt to this scorching condition by changing his work schedule. Usually, he goes to the fields after Subuh prayer at 05.30 Wita (Western Indonesia Time). Once the sun starts to rise, at 09.30, he has already returned home and only returns to the field after ashar prayer at 16.00. After maghrib, Mardiono will return to the field until 21.30.

Apart from changing working hours, Mardiono also has to use a sprinkler to water the soil which dries out more quickly under exposure to the hot sun. This means, he has to increase farming costs.

Research by Nicholas H Wolff from The Nature Conservancy and the team at the journal Lancet Planetary Health (2021) shows that temperatures in Berau have increased by 0.95 degrees Celsius in the period 2022 to 2018 or 16 years old. This increase in temperature is a combination of rampant deforestation in this area, reaching 4,375 square kilometers in 16 years.

Also read: Berau Heats Up, Deaths Increase and Farmers Work at Night

KOMPAS/AHMAD ARIF

Mine pits fill the landscape of Berau City, East Kalimantan, on Sunday (4/6/2023). Massive deforestation followed by mining activities is the main trigger of the increase in land surface temperature in Berau, which has reached 0.95 degrees Celsius in 16 years or 0.59 degrees Celsius per decade.

According to a study by Wolff and his team, the daily temperature increase in Berau has increased the death rate by 7.3-8.5 percent from all causes, or around 101-118 additional deaths per year in 2018. In addition, this temperature increase has also led to an increase in unsafe working hours by 0.31 hours per day in deforested areas compared to 0.03 hours per day in areas that maintain forest cover.

Apart from mitigation to immediately reduce emissions to limit the rate of warming, adaptation cannot be postponed any longer. Without support for adaptation, labor output in the agricultural sector, which supports global food needs, will continue to decline. Exposure to high levels of heat stress over a long period of time, especially in low-income areas where access to air conditioning is limited, will have a more debilitating impact.