ASEAN Troika for Solving the Myanmar Issue

With the complexity of the Myanmar crisis, which was not sufficiently resolved within one period of ASEAN chairmanship, the ASEAN leaders agreed to form a troika to maintain continuity.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI. The original article can be found in Troika ASEAN untuk Penyelesaian Isu Myanmar

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

The ASEAN leaders took a photo together before attending the opening of the 43rd ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, on Tuesday (5/9/2023).

JAKARTA, KOMPAS - ASEAN leaders have agreed that the resolution of Myanmar's crisis must adhere to the 2021 five-point consensus. Additionally, although the chairmanship of ASEAN will rotate and shift between member countries each year, ASEAN leaders have also agreed to form a troika consisting of the current chair, the previous ASEAN chair, and the next ASEAN chair.

The agreement was made amid the complexity of the Myanmar crisis, which cannot be resolved just within one year of leadership from one country, in order to maintain continuity in resolving the crisis in the country.

"A troika was formed to continue handling the (Myanmar) issue because everyone understands that this situation cannot change in one year. And because of ASEAN's commitment to continuing to help the people of Myanmar, it was agreed to form a troika between the current chair (current chair), previous chair (previous chair), and next chair (next chairman)," said Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to journalists on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit, in Jakarta, Tuesday (5/9/2023).

Also read: Special Interview with Foreign Minister Retno: "ASEAN Focus is Not Only Myanmar"

With that agreement, when Indonesia's chairmanship moves to Laos, the troika that will work on solving the Myanmar crisis will be Indonesia, Laos, and Malaysia. After Laos becomes the ASEAN Chair in 2024, Malaysia will be the next chair.

According to Retno, ASEAN leaders realized that after two years of being established, the five consensus points for resolving the Myanmar crisis had not resulted in progress in its implementation. Two actions that ASEAN can take against the military junta, the de facto ruler in Myanmar, are not to provide opportunities for Myanmar's political representation in ASEAN forums and to give the 2026 ASEAN chairmanship, which should be Myanmar's turn, to the Philippines.

Retno stated that the conclusion of the ASEAN leaders is that there has been no progress in the implementation of the five points of consensus, even after more than two years since it was produced. "The conclusion is that there has been no significant progress in the implementation of the 5 PC's," said Retno, referring to the five points of agreement among the ASEAN leaders.

KOMPAS/LUKI AULIA

Minister of Foreign Affairs Retno Marsudi delivered a statement to journalists on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit at the Jakarta Convention Center on Tuesday (5/9/2023).

Retno revealed that during the past nine months of Indonesia's chairmanship, the ASEAN Special Envoy Office for Myanmar held 145 meetings with various conflicting parties in Myanmar. However, due to the delicate situation, all ASEAN leaders are aware that this situation will not be easy to resolve in just one year. Trust has emerged with stakeholders, except for the junta.

At the summit, ASEAN leaders again urged the junta and the parties to the conflict to stop all forms of violence. When opening the retreat session with ASEAN leaders, President Joko Widodo said ASEAN must continue to encourage inclusive national dialogue as the key to resolving the political crisis in Myanmar. Apart from that, the President also encouraged more tactical and extraordinary efforts in implementing the five consensuses.

Also read: Indonesia Raises Threat of Superpower Rivalry in the Region

"For the sake of ASEAN family's interests, we must dare to evaluate ourselves, openly discuss issues, and find solutions together," said the President in front of the ASEAN leaders."

Negative impact

Indonesia and ASEAN member states always remind that the conflict in Myanmar should not hijack the association's work. This is constantly stressed by President Jokowi and Foreign Minister Retno.

However, according to the Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs, Mahfud MD, the lack of significant progress in resolving the issue of Myanmar has a negative impact on ASEAN. "Our achievement in implementing the APSC 2025 blueprint is overshadowed by the lack of progress in resolving the issue of Myanmar," said Mahfud during his speech at the opening of the 27th ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) meeting.

Kompas

In the opening of the 43rd ASEAN Summit on Tuesday (5/9/2023), President Joko Widodo emphasized that ASEAN agreed to continue working together in equality. ASEAN also will not become a tool of interest for any power in the world.

Civil society elements have repeatedly reminded ASEAN to find tactical and strategic steps to end the situation in Myanmar, including proposed trials for alleged human rights violations and even genocidal violations. The UN's Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Myanmar, Thomas Andrews, when he visited Jakarta ahead of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting last July, urged Indonesia, as the current ASEAN chair, to seek a new approach in resolving the Myanmar issue.

Also read: ASEAN's steps must be correct for the sake of the Myanmar people

Dinna Prapto Raharja, an international relations observer from Synergy Policies, stated that the action taken by ASEAN, particularly Indonesia, in not making any extraordinary and tactical moves with the conclusion of ASEAN leaders is a great disappointment for the tens of millions of Myanmar citizens.

Adelina Kamal, an independent analyst and former Coordinator of the ASEAN Humanitarian Center (AHA Center), proposed during the Myanmar Day event in Jakarta on Wednesday (30/8/2023), that implementation of the five ASEAN consensuses should include the participation of citizen pro-democracy movements (inclusive), accompanied by strict sanctions against the junta. In addition, there must be a timeline or deadline for each step and cooperation with the United Nations Security Council, while still respecting the prohibited words of PBB and PKS.

Philippines chairman 2026

After being isolated in ASEAN forums, Myanmar will also not hold the leadership position of the regional organization in 2026. The Philippines has confirmed it will be the rotating chair of ASEAN in 2026. According to the order, Myanmar was supposed to receive the baton of ASEAN leadership in 2026 after Laos and Malaysia.

Confirmation of the Philippines' leadership was delivered by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr at the ASEAN summit on Tuesday. "With pleasure, I announce that the Philippines is ready to lead and guide ASEAN in 2026. We will strengthen the foundation of our community's development and guide ASEAN as this country enters a new phase," he said as stated in his official statement.

Also read: Philippines Confirms Taking Over Myanmar's Leadership Shift

Marcos's announcement has ended the mystery of the next three-year chairman of ASEAN. The ASEAN chairman is usually rotated based on the alphabetical order of the member countries' names. After Indonesia, it was Laos's turn, followed by Malaysia, to become the ASEAN chairman. After Malaysia, Myanmar was supposed to become the chairman. Only after that would the Philippines become the rotating chairman of ASEAN.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

State First Lady Iriana Joko Widodo accompanied President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr, and his wife, Louise Marcos, as they will participate in the 43rd ASEAN Summit in Jakarta on Tuesday (5/9/2023).

The issue of ASEAN leadership has become a problem since the 2021 coup in Myanmar. The coup has led various parties to question the potential for ASEAN to be led by a country that violates democratic principles.

ASEAN is responding to the crisis stagnation in Myanmar by prohibiting Myanmar officials who are at the level of ministers or higher from attending ASEAN forums. This condition will complicate ASEAN's leadership if Myanmar becomes the Chair of ASEAN.

Marcos' announcement also answers rumors that have been circulating for at least the last month. Reported by Nikkei Asia and Thai PBS in mid-August 2023, the junta is said to have relinquished Myanmar's right to become the Chair of ASEAN 2026. However, there has been no official source to confirm this information.