When the number of births in Java-Bali is below the ideal limit

The number of births in Java-Bali is below the ideal, 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age. This condition was accompanied by an increase in the number of elderly people. This situation needs to be managed properly because it could disrupt the future economy.

The following article was translated using both Microsoft Azure Open AI and Google Translation AI.

KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI

Residents were riding a motorcycle with five passengers in the Kebon Jeruk area, West Jakarta, on Sunday (27/2/2022). The Ministry of Home Affairs, through the Directorate General of Civil Registration, updated the population data for the second semester of 2021, which recorded the number of Indonesians at 273,879,750 people. Of that number, there was an increase of 2,529,861 people compared to 2020.

The number of births in all provinces in Java-Bali, except West Java, has already fallen below the ideal level. This situation is believed by many not to cause concerns because the national birth rate is still above the threshold value. Therefore, Java-Bali requires a population policy different from other regions in Indonesia.

The results of the Long Form of the 2020 Population Census that were released earlier this year show that three provinces with the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in Java-Bali are DKI Jakarta with 1.75 children per fertile woman, DI Yogyakarta (1.89), and East Java (1.98). In those provinces, the distribution of regencies-cities with TFR below 2.1 is quite evenly spread.

TFR 2.1 is considered a replacement level (replacement level) which means that each girl will be replaced by one daughter to maintain continuity of regeneration. TFR 2.1 is also used as a benchmark for balanced population growth, meaning that if it is less than 2.1 then the number of births in one area is low and vice versa.

Although it has decreased compared to the SP 2010, the birth rate in Java-Bali in 2020 has not been able to match the TFR in the region in 2000 as a successful result of family planning (KB) program implementation during the New Order era. At that time, TFR in DI Yogyakarta reached 1.44, DKI Jakarta (1.63), and East Java (1.71). The relaxation of KB post-Reformation significantly increased TFR in 2010 and is now starting to decrease again.

KOMPAS/M ZAID WAHYUDI

The results of the 2020 Population Census Long Form survey indicate that seven out of 34 provinces have a birth rate below the ideal rate of 2.1 children per fertile woman. Six out of the seven provinces are located in the Java-Bali region. The only province in Java that is not included in this group is West Java, with a birth rate of 2.11 per fertile woman.

The impact of low birth rates in several regions is clearly visible from last year's Eid al-Fitr gathering. It is becoming more common that a family only has two children. Conversely, there are fewer families with four or more children as in decades past.

The number of students in an elementary school class (SD) now only ranges from a dozen to 30 students, which is very different from the 1980s where there were around 50 students per class. Even in rural or suburban areas, some elementary and junior high schools have been merged or closed due to the limited number of students.

Many couples are becoming aware that raising a child requires significant investment in the form of money, time, energy, and parenting skills.

Regions with low birth rates or TFR below 2.1 generally also face an aging population. Areas with a large proportion of elderly population and low influx of young population due to limited higher education centers or industries usually develop into retirement cities with a slower pace of life.

KOMPAS/M ZAID WAHYUDI

The results of the 2020 Population Census Long Form indicate that 93 out of 514 districts/cities throughout Indonesia have a birth rate below the ideal or less than 2.1 children per fertile woman. Most of these districts/cities are located in the Java-Bali region.

Quality family

The low birth rate in Java-Bali is caused by many factors, one of which is the success of the family planning program. However, with the stagnation of the use of modern contraception (CPR) at 60-65 percent and the increase in the use of traditional contraception, including in urban areas, the success of family planning in suppressing births is not solely due to the use of contraception, but also the increasing awareness of building a quality family.

The Deputy for Population Control of the National Population and Family Planning Agency (BKKBN), Bonivasius Prasetya Ichtiarto, stated on Saturday (May 26, 2023) that since the family planning program was initiated, Java-Bali has been a primary focus due to its large population. Consequently, family planning infrastructure and community understanding of the benefits of family planning have been more developed.

"Nowadays, family planning is no longer something that is forced, but has become a thought and a necessity," he said. The high level of education in society and the increasing number of women entering the workforce in Java-Bali make childbirth a matter that is greatly considered, both in terms of timing, quantity, and spacing between births."

Also read: Birth Rate in Indonesia Continues to Fall

Meanwhile, Head of the Demography Institute at the University of Indonesia Abdillah Ahsan added that many couples are increasingly aware that raising children requires a large investment, whether it be money, time, energy, or the ability to nurture and educate children so that they have a better future than their parents.

Buying milk for children, paying caregivers, child care costs, enrolling in school from early childhood education to college, and meeting their needs before becoming independent require significant expenses. All of this must be considered in relation to income and economic responsibilities.

SEKOLAH ALTERNATIF ANAK JALANAN (SAAJA)

A number of children are attending early childhood education classes at the Alternative School for Street Children (SAAJA) in Kuningan, South Jakarta. SAAJA is a non-formal school established to provide access to education for underprivileged children without any cost.

Furthermore, there is currently a shift in the paradigm of couples regarding marriage and family development. The current generation, with a more stable economy, wants to have more time to enjoy life and engage in recreational activities. This is different from the previous generation, who were required to work harder due to their relatively difficult economic conditions.

If low birth rates in advanced Asian countries are suspected to be caused by a sex recession, the situation is believed to also occur in Indonesia even though the intensity is not as significant as in those countries. Workload, long travel time from home to work, and the weight of domestic work burden make the desire for sexual intercourse decrease compared to before.

"Marriage is no longer the main source of happiness. The younger generation today also wants to enjoy life more, maintaining a balance between work and life, and that certainly requires expenses and the number of children cannot be too many," said Abdillah."

Also read: Kartini, Maternal Mortality Rate, and Childfree

However, the strengthening of the notion of delaying marriage, not getting married, and not having children (childfree) which went viral on social media some time ago has not affected the low number of births. Everyone, including women, is free to decide whether to marry or have children or not. However, the number of those who decide not to marry or not have children is considered to be still small, not unlike what has happened in developed countries.

"The family culture in Indonesia is still quite strong and is procreation-oriented or supporting childbirth, not just for recreation or having fun," said Bonivasius.

WILIBRORDUS MEGANDIKA WICAKSONO

A couple participated in a mass wedding ceremony held in commemoration of the 449th anniversary of Banyumas Regency, Central Java, on Friday (28/2/2020). Out of 143 couples, the youngest was 19 years old and the oldest was 84 years old.

Aside from those issues, early marriage and pregnancy above the age of 40 are still very high. Out of around 1,000 teenage girls aged 15-19 years old, 27 of them are already pregnant. Meanwhile, out of 1,000 women aged 40-49 years old, 11 of them are still pregnant at that age.

"The case of postponed marriages may indeed be increasing, but it is not yet a common trend," said Abdillah. Marriage still remains a hope for the majority of Indonesians despite the fact that the median age for first marriages has continued to rise from 17.1 years in 1991 to 21.8 years in 2017. Unlike in developed countries, the institution of marriage in Indonesia is still strong and sacred."

Resident management

The low birth rate will cause the population of an area to continue decreasing and lower economic activity. As a consequence, efforts to stimulate the economy, ranging from job creation, poverty reduction, to improving the welfare of society will become increasingly difficult. Therefore, Indonesia is planning for a balanced population growth with a TFR value set at 2.1.

If we refer to the trend of population decline in several countries and Indonesia's aging population, the decline in the number of births will continue in the future. However, both Bonivasius and Abdillah agree that efforts to encourage childbirth, as done in developed countries, are not yet necessary in Java-Bali.

Although the number of births in Java-Bali, except West Java, has fallen below 2.1 children, Indonesia's national TFR is still at 2.18. In eastern Indonesia, the average number of children is still very high. The highest TFR at the provincial level is in East Nusa Tenggara at 2.79 children, while at the district/city level it is in Asmat, Papua at 4.22 children.

"A low TFR in a region can be dangerous if the infant and toddler mortality rates are high," said Bonivasius. Therefore, public health services, especially for pregnant women and children, need to be continuously encouraged. The hope is that children can be born and grow up healthy and safe and later, when they are adults, they can continue their lineage."

Also read: The Ballad of a Family with 11 Children

The population situation in Java-Bali which is different from the national condition has led Abdillah to assess that what is needed in the region is no longer about population control as in areas with TFR above 2.1, but about managing the population.

As many as 57.7 percent of the Indonesian population reside in Java and Bali. The population on both islands has become too dense. Java has become the world's most populated island, with approximately 150 million residents. Java is also predicted to become an urban island similar to Singapore in the future.

Therefore, increasing the population in Java-Bali by increasing births is clearly not the right choice. The large population with an inadequate public service system in most areas makes life in Java-Bali very competitive and expensive.

"Java is already too densely populated. Therefore, population growth must be controlled, one of which is by continuously promoting rationality within families, especially related to the number of children they have," said Abdillah.

CHRISTINA MUTIARANI JEINIFER SINADIA

Fitri (34), Fadil (9), and Sarizal (36) were taking a selfie in the car-free zone near the Transjakarta bus stop at Hotel Indonesia roundabout (HI), Jakarta, on Sunday (30/10/2022). The small family chose to ride bikes in the car-free zone instead of going to the shopping center.

To maintain balanced population growth, especially in Java-Bali, according to Bonivasius, the solution offered by BKKBN is to continue to encourage community awareness to build quality families that mostly have two children and a small portion have three children.

To encourage women to have children, it is necessary to create a comfortable environment for pregnancy and childbirth. Women-friendly health facilities, adequate lactation rooms, and affordable childcare facilities around the workplace need to be prepared so that mothers can have children without worrying about losing job opportunities.

Also read: Ensuring Exclusive Breastfeeding Rights for Babies

The local government also needs to pay attention to population issues because the challenges in each region are different. Currently, out of all districts/cities in Indonesia, there are 258 districts/cities or 50.19 percent that have a TFR (total fertility rate) of more than 2.3 or high birth rates. However, 93 districts/cities, or 18.09 percent, have a TFR below 2.1, which means low birth rates.

However, not to mention awareness, the knowledge about population development held by many regional heads is still weak. "The government needs to continue providing knowledge and insight about population to them so that the population in a region can be managed properly," said Abdillah.

Only with a managed population, the welfare of the community can be realized. With educated, healthy, and prosperous citizens, Indonesia's aspirations to become a developed country that escapes the middle-income trap and becomes a golden generation on Indonesia's 100th anniversary in 2045 can be truly realized.