Many Challenges Impede ASEAN’s Momentum

Externally, there is a competition between superpowers that could potentially divide ASEAN. Internally, ASEAN is facing a prolonged crisis in Myanmar.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

President Joko Widodo (right) poses for a photo with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the 42nd ASEAN Summit in Labuan Bajo, West Manggarai, East Nusa Tenggara, Tuesday (9/5/2023). Apart from Malaysia, Joko Widodo also held bilateral meetings with Vietnam, Timor Leste and Laos.

WEST MANGGARAI, KOMPAS – ASEAN has been in a decisive period in recent years. Although the regional bloc has enough capital to spur growth, both internal and external challenges stand in the way of these opportunities.

“ASEAN is in a decisive period. Our strength as a community has been tested, crisis after crisis. Failing to resolve these [crises] risks our relevance,” Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Minister Mahfud MD said in his opening remarks at the 26th ASEAN Political-Security Community (APSC) Council Meeting in Labuan Bajo, West Manggarai, East Nusa Tenggara, on Tuesday (9/5/2023).

Mahfud said there was a competition between superpowers that could potentially divide ASEAN. At the same time, ASEAN must face the food and energy crises as well as the global economic slowdown. Meanwhile, ASEAN’s internal challenges included the prolonged Myanmar crisis and its humanitarian impacts.

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These issues had been raised at ASEAN meetings for some time now, Mahfud pointed out. However, ASEAN must not forget the other challenges in the region.

“I would like to draw our attention to developments in transnational crimes in our region, from terrorism and drugs to money laundering and human trafficking. Not only do these crimes pose a direct threat to peace, stability and prosperity in the region, but they also hinder the development of our societies,” he said.

Continuing, Mahfud said ASEAN thus had no choice but to ensure that it was well equipped to deal effectively with these challenges. As the 2023 ASEAN chair, Indonesia was paying serious attention to these matters.

AP/POOL/ACHMAD IBRAHIM

From left, Malaysia's Foreign Minister Zambry Abd Kadir, Philippines' Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo, Singapore's head of senior official delegate Albert Chua, Thailand's Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai, Vietnam's Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, Indonesian Coordinating Political Legal and Security Affairs Minister Mahfud, Indonesia's Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, Laos Foreign Minister Saleumxay Kommasith, Brunei's head of senior official delegate Johariah Wahab, Cambodia's Foreign Minister Prak Sokhonn, East Timor's Foreign Minister Adaljiza Magno and ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn hold hands as they pose for a photo during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) political security community council meeting in Labuan Bajo, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, Tuesday, May 9, 2023.

ASEAN leaders will adopt the Declaration on Combating Trafficking in Persons Caused by the Misuse of Technology at the 42nd Summit on Wednesday (10/5). This declaration advances a comprehensive approach to trafficking in persons, from prevention to victim protection, while also enhancing collaboration to combat the misuse of technology.

To complement these efforts, Mahfud emphasized the need for ASEAN to make progress in negotiations on the ASEAN extradition treaty, an agreement that was long overdue. “It will prevent our region from becoming a safe haven for criminals and strengthen ASEAN as a rules-based community,” he said.

At the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Labuan Bajo on Tuesday Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi also called for strengthening ASEAN institutions, capacities and instruments, as Mahfud pointed out. The forum discussed four key aspects, namely ASEAN capacity building, accessing the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), implementing the five-point consensus (5PC) in Myanmar and implementing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP).

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“ASEAN’s role is instrumental for regional peace, stability and prosperity. We cannot imagine what would happen to this region if ASEAN did not exist. However, we cannot be careless. This achievement must serve as capital to build a stronger ASEAN, a more relevant ASEAN,” Retno said in her opening speech.

What was certain is that ASEAN would only face greater challenges in the future, Retno continued. This included challenges in the Indo-Pacific context. Therefore, implementing the AOIP was important. ASEAN must work harder and break free of old habits.

On the same day, the meeting of the ASEAN Coordinating Council (ACC) also discussed building ASEAN’s capacity. As the ACC chair, Retno invited her colleagues to discuss how to make ASEAN’s working mechanism more effective, flexible and less bureaucratic, among other things, in order to face the challenges that continued to develop in the region. “A stronger ASEAN capacity will enable ASEAN to face future challenges,” she said.

KOMPAS/HERU SRI KUMORO

Bilateral meeting between President Joko Widodo and Lao Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone on the sidelines of the 42nd ASEAN Summit in Labuan Bajo, West Manggarai, East Nusa Tenggara, Tuesday (9/5/2023).

Southeast Asia’s economic growth is projected to continue expanding beyond the global average. Despite the global economic slowdown, Southeast Asia has a better growth rate compared to other regions and the world.

Referring to data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it took ASEAN 39 years to penetrate US$1 trillion in gross domestic product (GDP). In 1983, ASEAN’s GDP had not reached $300 billion. Only in 2006 did ASEAN’s GDP reach $1.19 trillion.

The IMF and World Bank estimate that ASEAN’s GDP will reach $3.9 trillion this year and $4.57 trillion in 2025.

One of ASEAN’s important growth assets is its demographic. Of its 660 million-strong population, 93 percent are still under 60 years old. In fact, 60 percent of ASEAN’s population is in the productive age group of 15-60 years. This young population means that ASEAN’s capacity for consumption and production have an opportunity to continue growing.

Despite the global economic slowdown, Southeast Asia has a better growth rate compared to other regions and the world.

ASEAN’s also has capital in its natural resources. Some ASEAN countries are located in the global tin belt and nickel network. These commodities are important minerals for the electronics and electric vehicle (EV) industries.

As such, during its ASEAN chairmanship, Indonesia is initiating the formulation of an ecosystem that aims to develop the region’s EV industry. Indonesia is calling for ASEAN to build a shared ecosystem to spur development in the Southeast Asian EV industry.

Despite having a lot of capital, ASEAN must not be complacent, Retno pointed out. This took into account the IMF’s April 2023 report, which revealed a declining trend in investments to and from Asia, including Southeast Asia.

This article was translated by Kesya Adhalia.