The war in Ukraine has rearranged global alliances, fueled new anxieties and forced many countries to revise their respective policies in security, energy, economy and geopolitics.
By
M Samsul Hadi
·4 minutes read
AFP/YASUYOSHI CHIBA
Ukrainian servicemen walk along a street in Siversk on February 17, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
MUNICH, SUNDAY – After almost a year of war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion on 24 February 2022, the flames of hostility between the conflicting parties continue to rage. This is not only seen on the battlefield but also among policymaking leaders in their respective countries.
“Now is not the time for dialogue with Russia,” said French President Emmanuel Macron at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Friday (17/2/2023).
Friday (24/2/2023) marks exactly one year since the war in Ukraine began. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 7,199 civilians in Ukraine killed and 11,756 injured, though the real figures are estimated to be much higher. These numbers exclude military casualties from both Ukraine and Russia, which are estimated to amount to tens of thousands of lives.
“This [war] has become a war of attrition, a battle where any side coming out victorious will have paid heavy losses,” wrote Barry R. Posen, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the United States, in Foreign Affairs magazine (4 January 2023).
“No country seems ready to negotiate,” said Posen.
Prolonged conflict
To this day, a military approach is believed to be the only option. This, among others, was conveyed by Macron. “We are ready to intensify [our efforts] and face a prolonged conflict. This is the only way to force Russia back to the negotiating table and build a lasting peace,” he said.
At the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit in Bali last November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered 10 peace formulas in an online address. These formulas include issues of nuclear security, food security, energy security, prisoner release, the territorial restoration of Ukraine, withdrawal of Russian troops, war-crimes trials, prevention of ecocide, prevention of conflict escalation and a cessation of war agreement.
This proposal was rejected by Russia. Moscow emphasized that it would not retreat even an inch from the territory it had seized by force. Its area is estimated to be one-fifth of Ukrainian soil. In addition to taking control of Crimea in 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin also announced the annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as part of Russia at the end of November 2022.
AP PHOTO/LIBKOS
A self-propelled artillery vehicle fires on the frontline, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 18, 2023.
An offer of negotiation by a third party also failed. At the Munich Security Conference on Saturday (1/2/2023), former Chinese foreign minister, who is now the director of the Chinese Community Party’s Foreign Commission, Wang Yi, called for dialogue to end the war. Like the US, China has the capacity to influence Moscow.
“[However], it seems that some powers do not want the negotiations to succeed or do not want the war to end soon,” Wang said.
However, the West has viewed this development with great suspicion, believing it is related to Beijing’s move to establish a “limitless” partnership with Moscow.
Historical turning point
The war in Ukraine has rearranged global alliances, fueled new anxieties and forced many countries to revise their respective policies in security, energy, economy and geopolitics. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called this era a Zeitenwende (turning point).
“New powers have appeared or are reappearing, including an economically strong and politically assertive China,” Scholz wrote in his article in Foreign Affairs (January/February 2023 edition). “In the multipolar world, states and many models of government compete for power and influence.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Berlin to raise its defense budget to 2 percent of its GDP. Elsewhere in Europe, Finland and Sweden gave up their neutral stances to join NATO.
In Asia, the war in Ukraine raised new alarms about the tensions in Taiwan. The territory is independently governed, but Beijing considers the island as a part of China to be unified someday, by force if necessary.
“If we allow these unilateral changes to the status quo to go unopposed, the same thing could happen elsewhere, including in Asia,” said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in a lecture at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, the US, last month.
Japan, an ally of the US in Asia, chairs the Group of Seven this year. Through a series of meetings this year, Tokyo will try to unite countries that align with them.
However, the conditions over the past year have shown a different geopolitical dynamic. In the southern hemisphere, there are large democracies that support neither the West nor Russia, such as India, Indonesia and South Africa. Along with Argentina, Brazil and China, US economist Jeffrey Sachs refers to this group as “neutral countries” (The Economist, 18 January 2023).
These countries, Sachs said, “often call for negotiations to end the conflict [Ukraine versus Russia]. They can help implement the agreement reached.” (AP/AFP/REUTERS)
