Russia-Ukraine Conflict at an Impasse

Three months since Russian troops invaded Ukrainian territory, Russia's "military operation" has made little progress.

The war was first launched right on the capital city of Kiev on 24 Feb., 2022, and was expected to be finished within four days.

As it turned out, the Russian troops were forced to retreat with heavy losses, including in the number of fighting casualties. Putin's aim to overthrow Volodymyr Zelensky's government (on the accusation of denazification) and destroy the Ukrainian military (demilitarization) failed.

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Russia then directed its offensive on the Donbas with the aim to encircle and destroy the Ukrainian forces there. That plan has so far failed. A few days ago, there were reports about Ukrainian troops reaching the Russian border. The war is now entering a third phase, in which Russia is defending the captured parts of the Donbas territory and securing the ground corridor to the Crimean Peninsula, while trying to hold back Ukrainian troops in several conflict zones. Russia’s “military operation” in Ukraine has reduced into “a tug of war”.

Military odds

What the war has exposed is how porous the Russian military is on all fronts. Russian armored vehicles and trucks have appeared to be partly junk. The supplies of ammunition, gasoline and logistics to the troops on the front lines were easily cut off by the Ukrainian army. Russia's logistics supplies and digital capabilities are an ignominy. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intelligence reports how vulnerable the Russian army is, which has aroused doubts whether Russia will still be able to go further on the offensive.

Russian President Vladimir Putin could carry out an all-out military mobilization at his disposal. However, as military experts remark, the internally decaying Russian military would take several months to deploy additional troops as reinforcement.

Meanwhile, thanks to advanced military assistance from NATO country members, the Ukrainian armed forces have bolstered their resilience. While being affected by the economic sanctions imposed by the Western countries, Russia finds Ukraine's military power is unexpectedly scathing.

What is even more surprising is that Russia, the country with the second-most powerful armed forces in the world, is led by an autocrat who does not know about its military readiness to fight. How can the leader of a militarily mighty country initiate a military operation without knowing its military capabilities? Where is the intelligence?

Putin might have blundered in political calculation when he launched the war on the pretext that he wanted to prevent Russia being surrounded by NATO members. In fact, now all European countries of the former Warsaw Pact and former Soviet Union feel justified in their suspicions from the onset about Russia.

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Putin has brought about something the United States has not been able to convince its NATO allies of in Europe in 30 years, which is an awareness that they must be ready for war. Germany, for example, has now decided to earmark 100 billion euros (US$106,733,181,065.99) to build its military arsenal.

Finland and Sweden, which for 70 years took neutrality, have now decided to ask to enter NATO, with the consequence that the Baltic Sea will become a NATO surveillance territory.

How to make peace

It seems that Russia will only be willing to end the war against Ukraine if its neighboring country meets three demanded conditions. First, the Donbas is ceded from Ukraine. Second, Ukraine officially recognizes that Crimea belongs to Russia. And, thirdly, Ukraine promises -- with NATO support -- that it will not enter NATO.

If any of these conditions are not met, the cessation of “military operation” against Ukraine would be seen as an acknowledgment of defeat by Russia, and Russia will not do it.

On the other hand, will Ukraine accept the three conditions?

In fact, Russia has reasons in putting forward these three conditions. The Donbas, similar to Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, is an area where, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the majority of its ethnic Russian population do not accept that they are no longer part of Russia. As for Crimea, it was only in 1954 that Nikita Khrushchev, who was an ethnic Ukrainian, considered it as part of Ukraine.

And that Russia does not want to have a big neighboring country as a member of NATO is understandable.

In the old days of monarchies, a monarch who lost the war would give up a territory to the winning monarch, and the problem was settled. However, in the era of nationalism and democracy, such rationality is no longer possible. Any government in Kiev that gives in to the first or second points of the demanded conditions would surely be overthrown.

In addition, Ukraine would certainly demand compensation of more than US$1 billion for the damage to buildings, infrastructure and destruction caused by the Russian attack. As Henry Kissinger noted: “The test of a policy is how it ends, not how it begins”.

Way out

The war, which has turned into a bloody affair of progressively wearing each other down, as is now taking place in eastern and southern Ukraine, will not last forever. Ukraine, with its spirited army personnel and NATO-assisted arsenal, is getting stronger and is not going to relent in its resistance.

On the other hand, Russian troops’ fighting spirit will gradually decline and the one who will be blamed in Russia is Putin.

However, Putin can change all by an unimaginable scenario of dropping an atomic bomb over Kiev, which would derail the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian people. The atomic bomb would save and strengthen Putin's position. What a very terrible scenario!

Regarding the atomic bomb scenario, the world must intensify communication.

Should Kiev be nuked, NATO would not retaliate on Russia with a nuclear launch. NATO would not start World War III, leaving Ukraine to take the brunt of the defeat. However, the world would not ever be the same. The Cold War mood would creep back. Russia would be completely isolated. Its relations with China would not be of much help either.

Regarding the atomic bomb scenario, the world must intensify communication. In its capacity as the G20 leader, Indonesia’s decision to invite Putin to the G20 forum has been appropriate.

Indonesia is not in a position to play a role beyond its capacity. By taking an approach of prioritizing its own interests, Indonesia will be seen as making a significant contribution to the realization of a world community that continues to communicate without sharp divisions and polarizations into opposing pacts.

KOMPAS/WAWAN H PRABOWO (WAK)

Franz Magnis-Suseno

Franz Magnis-Suseno, Full-time professor at Driyarkara School of Philosophy

This article was translated by Musthofid.