Russia-Ukraine: Security Dilemma

Why has the Russian-Ukrainian War occurred? The answers are varied and many are contradictory. However, Russia's military offensive on such as scale was a way of resolving disputes between countries in the 20th century.

The wars of the 20th century were marked by two World Wars, as well as several major wars such as the Korean War and the Vietnam War and various conflicts in the Middle East and other regions, such as Afghanistan on a smaller scale, but with a large impact. It was always marked by a military offensive of one country against another or an alliance of supporting countries.

This type of war always left physical and civilian casualties; millions of people fled to foreign lands and created new humanitarian problems.

Also read:

> ‘Quo Vadis’ Russia-Ukraine War

> Russian Invasion Marks another Dark Chapter in Europe

The 21st century, which began two decades ago, is marked by increasingly global relations between countries, to borrow the term coined by Dani Rodrik, professor of political economy from Harvard: hyper-globalization. There are no longer two ideological poles that are facing diametrically as during the Cold War. Life in the world, both in individual and social, economic and political terms, is getting more and more united, facilitated by advances in communication and digital technology that are developing very rapidly.

Various business models and economic and financial activities take place worldwide with the application of technology such as the internet, social media and various kinds of gadgets. Meanwhile in the political field, technological tools open the door to a new era of democracy, called “digital democracy”.

Security dilemma

In the two decades of global life as above, even though conflicts are still ongoing such as in the Middle East and other fragile regions, as well as potential conflicts such as those on the Korean Peninsula and the South China Sea, the possibility of a breakout of a military war on a large scale is unimaginable by the general public, is being replaced by economic wars, digital wars and technological wars as part of everyday life.

Therefore, the Russian attack on Ukraine was quite surprising. Rodrik described the conflict in Ukraine as a “security dilemma” where it is no longer possible to differentiate between offensive and defensive actions in defending national security and interests. In the Western world's view, Russia's attack on

Ukraine is offensive or aggression, for Russia it is defensive to prevent Ukraine from entering NATO and becoming a threat to its safety.

In history, nearly the same thing happened in 1962, known as the October 1962 Crisis or Cuban Missile Crisis. The Soviet Union responded to the deployment of the United States' Jupiter missiles in Italy and Turkey, agreeing with Cuba to place nuclear missile installations in Cuba, with the pretext of preventing a US attack on Cuba.

The hard US reaction created a tense atmosphere that almost erupted into open war, even nuclear war. This conflict could be deactivated after an agreement was reached between the leaders of the two countries, John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev. Jupiter missiles were not deployed in Turkey and the deployment of Russian nuclear missiles in Cuba was canceled. Until now, even though more countries possess nuclear weapons, it is realized that their use will destroy civilization and even life in this world. So, there was a "nuclear détente".

Reaction and sanctions

The reaction of the US, NATO countries and allies outside the region such as Japan and Australia to Russia's offensive in Ukraine was swift and comprehensive. Ukraine was assisted with war equipment accompanied by various non-military measures carried out simultaneously by the West.

The economic sanctions were launched starting with the exclusion of Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) so that Russia could not conduct global business transactions. All government assets, including individuals and Russian investments outside the country, were frozen. All Russian export and import routes were closed.

Also read:

> Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on Global Economy

> Russia, Ukraine Seek Common Ground

These conflicts and sanctions have an impact on the unrelated world community due to supply chain disruptions, rising prices and the scarcity of various commodities such as energy, food and various types of raw materials. As a result, the group of Western countries not only punishes Russia, but also punishes all nations in the world far beyond the region and the interests of the parties in conflict.

Even, secondary sanctions are being considered for other countries that have direct or indirect trade relations with Russia. Now what is being awaited is China's stance, where the leaders of the two countries, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, have agreed to establish "borderless" cooperation. Russia has requested assistance for various military equipment from China, and it can be expected also economic assistance to compensate for Western sanctions.

Lessons

Several lessons can be drawn from this conflict. First, after the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, various global public platforms, which were believed to be publicly available and neutral, participate in imposing sanctions against Russia.

Nearly all internet service operators have closed their doors to Russia. More or less all high-tech companies in the US and its allies cut off all high-tech products, including the supply of microchips to Russia.

Second, many people believed that Western public opinion was the freest and that Western news was the most objective and authentic. However, now the whole of Western public opinion has become a war machine against Russia, strictly shutting down Russia's external communication channels, controlling the spread of public opinion and sealing Russia's voice to speak in the world.

Third, the Western world teaches that individual rights, including ownership, are sacred. However, the countermeasures carried out had an impact on the innocent population in the war as money deposited in the bank became lost or reduced in value. Now it can happen to Russia, next time it can happen to other countries. All of them deny the values that have been the advantages of the Western world system compared to other alternative systems.

Asymmetric

We cannot approve or accept or even condemn the attacks of one country on another as a way to solve problems. We are concerned about the people who become victims, including those who have to leave their homes and flee to other countries.

Our Constitution mandates a just and civilized humanity and a world order based on freedom, eternal peace and social justice.

Solving problems through war cannot be justified for whatever reason. This is a lesson for potential aggression in other areas, such as Taiwan and the South China Sea, where Indonesia has interests.

Ordinary people in many non-Western countries regard Western powers as opportunistic, hypocritical and motivated purely by selfishness.

On the other hand, we see how technological and economic power controlled by the West has become such a powerful tool of war that shows how asymmetrical the balance of power is in this world. What is crossing the mind if such a strong reaction is also carried out for the Palestinian people who for 70 years have been expelled or have become foreigners in their own homeland. But that's another story.

Finally, I would like to quote Dani Rodrik again (in the original) that “… ordinary people in many non-Western countries regard Western powers as opportunistic, hypocritical and motivated purely by selfishness….”

KOMPAS/DEONISIA ARLINTA

Ginandjar Kartasasmita

Ginandjar Kartasasmita, Professor at Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan

This article was translated by Hyginus Hardoyo.