Competition among Potential Candidates Still Quite Dynamic

KOMPAS/HAS/RON

Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Rasyid Baswedan

In a one-on-one simulation, the electability of Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto and Anies Rasyid Baswedan are not far apart. This shows that there is no potential candidate dominating the race to become the next president.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The electability of potential presidential candidates is still quite dynamic and has the potential to change. Change can occur because until one year before the registration of the candidates in the 2024 Presidential Election, there has not been a single figure who has pocketed a ticket to take part in the five-year democratic event. In addition, there are no figures that have dominant electability, especially if they face each other one-on-one.

The results of a survey by Kompas Research and Development in October 2022 showed that the difference in the electability of three potential presidential candidates, namely Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and former Jakarta Governor Anies Rasyid Baswedan was relatively small when they were pitted one-on-one or head-to-head. Anies, whose electability rose from 12.6 percent in June to 16.5 percent in October, for example, is still unable to compete with Ganjar or Prabowo. Even so, the difference between Anies' electability and his two competitors is not very significant.

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When pitted against Ganjar, Anies received 47.2 percent support, while Ganjar received 52.8 percent. Likewise, when faced with Prabowo, Anies' electability was 47.9 percent and Prabowo 52.1 percent.

Meanwhile, when Ganjar, who now occupies the top position with an electability of 23.2 percent, is pitted against Prabowo, the difference in electability is not large. Ganjar won 52.9 percent of support, while Prabowo got 47.1 percent.

Therefore, it is still very difficult to predict who will excel in the 2024 presidential election.

The founder and Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia, Hanta Yuda, said in Jakarta on Wednesday (26/10/2022) that the current political map was still very dynamic. Although Ganjar, Prabowo and Anies have always come in at the top of electability ratings, the three of them are still very competitive. Therefore, it is still very difficult to predict who will excel in the 2024 presidential election.

According to Exposit Strategic political analyst, Arif Susanto, as the political situation is still very dynamic, the head-to-head simulation test can also change at any time. Moreover, until now there are no potential presidential candidates who hold tickets to run for the 2024 presidential election. "The electability map will change after there is firm support from political parties for the candidates," he said.

Declaration

Of the three potential presidential candidates, two of them have already been declared as presidential candidates. One of them is Anies, who was appointed as a presidential candidate for the Nasdem Party (Nasdem) in early October. In addition, Prabowo has also been designated as a presidential candidate by the party he leads, the Gerindra Party (Gerindra).

However, both Nasdem and Gerindra have not yet pocketed a ticket to carry the presidential and vice-presidential candidates. The two parties have not been able to meet the threshold requirements for presidential candidacy stipulated by Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections, namely ownership of a minimum of 20 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) or a minimum of 25 percent of national valid votes in the previous election.

KOMPAS

Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan.

Nasdem only controls 59 or 10.2 percent of the DPR seats, while Gerindra has 78 or 13.6 percent of parliamentary seats. The two political parties must also form a coalition with other political parties in order to meet the presidential nomination threshold and carry the presidential-vice-presidential candidates.

Hanta added that the certainty of tickets from political parties or a coalition of political parties to participate in the presidential election were among the factors that could increase the electability of potential presidential candidates. “This is because the public already knows that the figures they support will be on the ballot paper in the voting booth. In other words, voters who are classified as undecided voters have the potential to make choices after there is certainty," he said.

Another thing that can also improve electability, said Hanta, is communication and political movement. According to him, the political movements that have been carried out so far have not been able to bring Ganjar, Prabowo or Anies into a superior position. To increase electability, they should develop new strategies to change their image. It is very important to enable them to get more public attention so that it leads to electoral incentives.

The vice presidential factor

In addition to the certainty of tickets and the change in image, the choice of the vice presidential candidate is also one of the determinants of the ups and downs of electability of potential candidates for president. According to Hanta, the vice presidential factor is an important and integral part of the nomination. "The 2024 presidential election will be without an incumbent, so the vice-presidential factor is also very decisive. They must be able to choose a vice presidential figure who can support the electoral process, be a vote gainer and complement the presidential candidate," he said.

The elected vice president must be able to cover the weakness of presidential candidates, both in terms of electoral and leadership capacity.

Therefore, according to Arif, political parties or coalitions of political parties should also consider carefully when determining the vice-presidential candidate who will accompany their presidential candidate. The elected vice president must be able to cover the weakness of presidential candidates, both in terms of electoral and leadership capacity.

"For example, in the 2019 presidential election, Prabowo lost in East Java, so it is not surprising that he is considering collaborating with PKB Chairman Muhaimin Iskandar as a coalition partner. However, it must be remembered that Muhaimin's electability is still low, so Prabowo must also be able to ensure solid PKB supporters," said Arif.

Similar to Prabowo, Arif also said that Anies still needed to strengthen his support base in East Java. With this in mind, Anies must work with figures with roots in the region, such as the Governor of East Java, Khofifah Indar Parawansa.

KOMPAS/IQBAL BASYARI

Executive Director of Poltracking Indonesia Hanta Yuda.

Based on the Kompas Research and Development survey, a number of figures can attract strong support if they are nominated for vice president, including West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil (11.5 percent), Tourism and Creative Economy Minister/head of the Tourism Agency Sandiaga S. Uno (10.8 percent) and the chairman of the Democratic Party (Democrats), Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (6.6 percent). There are also the Social Minister Tri Rismaharini (2.5 percent), State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir (2.4 percent), Khofifah (1.7 percent), House Speaker Puan Maharani (1.4 percent) and Muhaimin Iskandar (1 percent).

Focus on work

Although one of its cadres, namely Ganjar Pranowo, has the top position in the electability of potential presidential candidates, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has yet to determine which presidential candidate will be promoted in the next presidential election. PDI-P’s secretary general, Hasto Kristiyantom, emphasized that so far, all PDI-P cadres still focused on continuing to help the people. Cadres should not interfere in the 2024 presidential election contestation because it is the prerogative of the PDI-P’s chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri.

Prabowo's spokesman, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, said the survey results would be used as material for evaluation and constructive input for Prabowo's political movement.

“The PDI-P is getting stronger in moving downward to unite with the power of the people. There is a problem with the presidential candidate as it has not yet been announced by Mrs. Mega," said Hasto. Prabowo, even though he has been appointed as a presidential candidate, is also not too worried about the decline in electability. Prabowo's spokesman, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, said the survey results would be used as material for evaluation and constructive input for Prabowo's political movement.

Despite his declining electability, Prabowo chose to focus on strengthening Indonesia's defense, as mandated by the President. (SYA/BOW/EDN)

(This article was translated by Hendarsyah Tarmizi).