There's Still Opportunity to Gain More Widespread Support

MARINA EKATARI

The top three figures in the 2024 presidential election survey, namely Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo Subianto, and Anies Baswedan, enthusiastically kept in touch at the moment of Eid 2022 with various figures..

It is increasingly true that three main characters emerge as the most electable. However, other candidates still have a chance to gain more support by observing voter preferences and resistances.

The results of the latest survey conducted by Kompas Research and Development (R&D) showed that highest electability is still limited to three candidates, namely Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan. In the June 2022 survey involving 1,200 respondents, Prabowo was still at the top with electability of 25.3 percent.

Ganjar was in the second position with 22 percent and Anies in the third position with 12.6 percent. These statistics resulted from the open question, "If the presidential election were to be held now, who do you think is the worthiest candidate for president?"

There was hardly any significant change in the electability of the three candidates. In January 2022, Prabowo's electability was at 26.5 percent, Ganjar 20.5 percent and Anies 14.2 percent. Ganjar, despite the upward trend in his electability, is still unable to outperform Prabowo, whose electability tends to stay consistent.

Also read:

> Prabowo, Ganjar and Anies Remain on Top

> PDI-P and Gerindra’s Positions Remain Static

However, in closed questions, by presenting 25 names, 10 names, 5 names and 3 names to choose from, Ganjar's chance to beat Prabowo was greater. Among the 25 names proposed, Prabowo gained 24.9 percent and Ganjar 25.2 percent. For the choices of 10 names, Prabowo received 25.2 percent and Ganjar 26.6 percent. For the choices of five names, Prabowo gained 28.1 percent and Ganjar 30.2 percent. In the three names, Prabowo gained 32.8 percent and Ganjar 33.6 percent. Anies remained in third place in every scheme: of 25, 10, 5 and 3 names.

The survey also showed that the relationship between voters and the candidates for the presidential election was more significant than their relationship with the candidate’s backing party. If their chosen candidate was promoted by a party they did not like, 68 percent of voters would still choose the candidate anyway.

If three names of presidential candidates were offered, namely Anies, Ganjar and Prabowo, the choice of party voters was distributed to the three names with different concentrations. Supporters of the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Nasdem Party tended to elect Ganjar.

KOMPAS/NORBERTUS ARYA DWIANGGA MARTIAR

The National Working Meeting of the Nasdem Party selected 3 presidential candidates to be promoted by the Nasdem Party in the 2024 General Election. The decision was read out by the Chairman of the Nasdem Party, Surya Paloh at the closing of the National Working Meeting, Friday (17/6/2022), in Jakarta.

Supporters of the Gerindra Party, Golkar Party, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Democratic Party tended to select Prabowo, as did sympathizers with non-House parties. Devotees of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the United Development Party (PPP) tended to choose Anies.

In the middle board, the competition for public support is still stagnant. Sandiaga S Uno still topped the mid-table votes, followed by Ridwan Kamil, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Tri Rismaharini, Erick Thohir and Andika Perkasa. Other names outside of this group had an average electability of under 1 percent.

Even though it is stagnant, if you look closely, the electability of several names had started to strengthen. Ridwan Kamil, who six months ago was still in seventh place, climbed to the fifth place. Erick Thohir rose from tenth position to ninth rank. As for Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, Tri Rismaharini and Andika Perkasa, their electability weakened slightly.

Opportunity

Even though a number of names currently have low electability, with fairly high recognition and preference rates, these figures still have the potential to gain more widespread voter support. Some of the figures who have a fairly high recognition rate (ranging from 60-70 percent) and a preference level above 50 percent are Susi Pudjiastuti, Sri Mulyani and Tri Rismaharini.

The potential of the candidates to gain votes is also estimated to be even greater if the level of public rejection or resistance to the proposed figure is smaller. This resistance refers to people in the community who immediately mention the name of a certain figure whom they consider least desirable to become president.

Also read:

> Public Satisfaction with the Government Declines

> Responding to Public Expectation

The results of the survey showed that among the three names with the highest electability, namely Prabowo, Ganjar, and Anies, Ganjar had the lowest resistance (0.2 percent), followed by Anies with 2.6 percent. In this survey, Prabowo’s resistance rate was greatest at 4 percent. Resistance to Anies decreased compared to the survey in October 2021, when voter resistance was at 7.6 percent, whereas resistance to Prabowo remained stable.

After analyzing the popularity aspect and the low level of resistance, it is apparent that a number of candidates still have the potential to become competitive in the 2024 presidential election. These studies can be used as the basis in determining the pairs of presidential and vice presidential candidates. (R&D KOMPAS)

This article was translated by Hendarsyah Tarmizi.