The top three potential presidential candidates again are Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo and Anies Baswedan. Compared to the last survey, conducted in January 2022, their electability has changed little.
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan still occupy the top three electability levels of potential public elected presidential candidates.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and Jakarta Governor Anies Rasyid Baswedan are still consistently in the top positions of potential presidential candidates preferred by the public. Political parties must consider people's preferences in determining presidential candidates if they do not want to lose voters. This is because the presidential candidate is still a magnet in determining the public's choice of political parties.
This situation, on the other hand, also shows the weakness of party identification (party id). The public has not been able to distinguish between ideologies and programs between one party and another, so that psycho-political ties with the people are not strong.
The Kompas R&D survey from 26 May to 4 June 2022 shows that Prabowo was still at the top with an electability of 25.3 percent. Ganjar Pranowo was in second place with 22 percent electability and Anies Baswedan had an electability rate of 12.6 percent.
This situation has not changed very much when compared to a similar survey last January. However, the electability of Prabowo and Anies decreased slightly when compared to the survey last January. Their electability at that time was 26.5 percent and 14.2 percent. Meanwhile, Ganjar's electability increased compared to the January survey, when his electability was at 20.5 percent.
The survey also recorded that the public's tendency in voting for a political party was strongly influenced by the choice of the presidential candidate. Of the 1,200 respondents who were interviewed face-to-face, 31 percent stated that they would switch to another political party if the candidate for president did not match their personal preferences.
The importance of the public's preference or choice of presidential candidate is well understood by the Gerindra Party. Deputy chairperson of Gerindra, Irfan Yusuf Hasyim, revealed that actually all central and regional executive boards have asked Prabowo to re-run in the 2024 presidential election. They also encourage Prabowo to campaign immediately. "However, until now Pak Prabowo is still focused on working as Minister of Defense and does not want to use his working hours to campaign," said Irfan in Jakarta, on Tuesday (21/6/2022).
Although he has not yet started his campaign, Irfan added, Prabowo's electability is consistently at the top. This means that the party's goals are in line with public preferences.
Secretary-general of Nasdem, Johnny G Plate, said that the three presidential candidates recommended by his party were also the result of the preferences of the regional executive board. They have captured grassroots votes, so the names of Ganjar, Anies and the TNI commander general Andika Perkasa appear as candidates for president.
MARINA EKATARI
The names of Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo and Andika Perkasa appeared in the National Working Meeting of the NasDem Party, Thursday (16/6/2022). These three names dominated the votes proposed by the Regional Representative Council as presidential candidates in the 2024 General Election.
In-depth study
Deputy secretary-general of the PDI-P, Arif Wibowo, said that public preferences recorded in various survey results have indeed become the subject of PDI-P's study to determine the presidential candidate. However, there were other considerations before leading to an ultimate decision by the general chairperson of the PDI-P Megawati Soekarnoputri.
Reflecting on the 2014 and 2019 elections, Arif said, the vote gains of the PDI-P and other political parties were strongly influenced by their presidential candidate. However, currently PDI-P wants to get rid of that dependence. "We are strengthening the work of the party so that later on, the party will not depend on individuals," he said.
By nominating our own cadre, the political works of legislative candidates in the field in attracting loyal and ideological voters can be multiplied.
According to Arif, having a strong party will not only facilitate the implementation of the strategy to win elections. When winning the presidential election, it is also useful to ensure that the administration is running effectively. This is because the party can guarantee the implementation of various promised policies and programs.
Meanwhile, a chairperson of the Golkar Party, M Misbakhun, said that the choice to nominate Golkar general chairman Airlangga Hartarto as a presidential candidate was a response to the lack of coat-tail effects felt in the 2014 and 2019 elections. "By nominating our own cadre, the political works of legislative candidates in the field in attracting loyal and ideological voters can be multiplied," he said.
Separately, a lecturer at the State Islamic University (UIN) Syarif Hidayatullah, Gun Gun Heryanto, explained that the tendency to prioritize the presidential candidate figure over the political party has occurred since the first direct presidential election was held in 2004. "The president [figure] is still a magnet for voters rather than political parties, because of the weakness of party ID and the role and function of political parties in society," he said.
Currently, the public has not been able to find any basic differences, both in terms of program and ideology, between the existing parties. This is exacerbated by the political work of the party, which has not been felt by the people. As a result, the psycho-political ties between voters and political parties are not strong.
In such a situation, the tendency of the people to pay more attention to the figures representing the party is unavoidable. Therefore, the party's decision in nominating presidential candidate cannot ignore the preferences of their respective constituents. "Ignoring the public choice of presidential candidates can result in the loss of the voter base," he said.
However, Gun Gun said, political parties must also improve. Political parties must begin to let go of elite domination and no longer just become “rent vehicles” for any candidates. Political parties should distribute their cadres to various public positions, including presidential candidates, optimally by improving the recruitment and training system.
