Exploring Opportunities to Ease the Russian-Ukrainian War
The Russian-Ukrainian war has a global impact. Great effort is required to end the war immediately. Despite difficulties, the G20 is expected to be an informal forum for easing tensions.
People with Ukrainian flags protest from the sideline against a pro-Russian march in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on April 10, 2022, amid the war in Ukraine.
JAKARTA, KOMPAS — Apart from Russia and Ukraine, many countries are affected by the war between these two countries. All parties need to continue efforts to explore and utilize every potential resolution to the conflict. The willingness of Kiev and Moscow to negotiate must be supported by ensuring situations that enable dialogue.
The issue of war in Eastern Europe, which erupted since the Russian attack on Ukraine on Feb. 24, became a discussion topic for the Kompas Collaboration Forum (KCF) in Jakarta, West Java, on Thursday (7/4/2022). Present as resource persons were Foreign Affairs Minister Retno LP Marsudi; director of strategy, portfolio, and business development of PT Pertamina Iman Rachman; and senior researcher of Kompas research and development section, Bestian Nainggolan. The discussion was led by the chief editor of Kompas, Sutta Dharmasaputra.
Indonesia, like many countries, is adversely impacted by the war in Ukraine. The war is affecting global commodity supply chains, causing price volatility and driving global inflation.
Commodity prices in world markets, which had previously increased due to growing demand for economic recovery, post-COVID-19 pandemic, are again under pressure due to this geopolitical conflict. In Indonesia, the impact of supply chain problems and the upward trend in global inflation have resulted in rising domestic commodity prices, especially in food and energy.
The head of the Fiscal Policy Agency (BKF) of the Finance Ministry, Febrio N Kacaribu, said that Indonesia was not spared from the impact of rising commodity prices that push inflation. According to the BKF study, the 2022 global inflation rate has the potential to jump from 3.8 to 4.6 percent. Bank Indonesia projects domestic inflation to be in the range of 2 to 4 percent.
KOMPAS/RADITYA HELABUMI
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Retno Marsudi, delivered an explanation about the current state of the Russia-Ukraine war in the Kompas Collaboration Forum (KCF) discussion with the theme "Impact of the Russian War on Indonesia" in Jakarta, Thursday (7/4/2022).
Middle road in G20
Indonesia has an exceptional interest in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, and is focusing attention on its role in its chairmanship position in this year's G20 gathering, with Russia as a member of the G20. The United States and its allies seek to isolate Russia, including at the G20 forum.
Thus far, there is belief in a middle way -- namely that both Russia and Ukraine are invited to a series of G20 meetings. The question of inviting Ukraine to the G20 forum was first proposed by US President Joe Biden.
A lecturer in International Relations at Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Central Java, Muhadi Sugiono stressed that resolving the Russian-Ukraine war is the responsibility of the United Nations Security Council. "The G20 cannot solve the problem," he said, on Sunday, in Yogyakarta.
Nevertheless, the G20 can be an informal forum to resolve Russia's hostilities with the US and its allies. The hostilities have sparked a number of wars, as in Yugoslavia, decades ago.
Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi was reported to have communicated with US Foreign Minister Antony Blinken about the US stance on Russia's presence at the G20. Blinken gave his assurance that the US could accept this condition. A number of Indonesian diplomats said Biden's attitude showed the US was willing to compromise about the implementation of the G20 during Indonesia's chairmanship.
Indonesia is still lobbying the US and its allies, who until now refuse to attend the G20 if Russia comes. Last week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the US would boycott several G20 meetings if a Russian representative attends. On April 20, a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors will be held in Washington DC, USA.
A number of senior Indonesian diplomats were sent to Washington DC to lobby the G20 members ahead of the meeting. Apart from the Foreign Affairs Ministry, lobbying has also been carried out by the Finance Ministry and Bank Indonesia.
AP PHOTO/JOSE LUIS MAGANA, POOL
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, right, accompanied by Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, speaks to the press after a bilateral meeting at the State Department in Washington, Tuesday, Aug. 3, 2021.
Retno has also communicated with her colleagues at the G20. Some were met in person, some via telephone. She, among others, met with Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, Mexican Foreign Minister Marcelo Erbrad and the head of the European Union's Foreign Policy Josep Borrell in Doha, Qatar. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova were met in China. Apart from Dzhaparova, all Retno met were officials of G20 members.
Coordinator of the Agenda for the Implementation of Indonesia's Chair, Dian Triansyah Djani, said that Indonesia will involve all members of the G20 in the entire series of forums, including the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Washington DC, this April. "We, Indonesia, as the president of the G20, will act impartially and try to find solutions to all problems. This has been and has always been done during the chairmanship of the Republic of Indonesia in a number of forums and institutions," he said.
A professor of International Law at the University of Indonesia, Hikmahanto Juwana, said that Indonesia is one of the countries affected by the Russian-Ukrainian war. Therefore, Indonesia is very interested in ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.
We, Indonesia, as the president of the G20, will act impartially and try to find solutions to all problems.
UN Liaison Director at the International Crisis Group Richard Gowan said countries in Asia and Africa are the most affected by rising commodity prices. According to him, a number of countries are worried that Western maneuvers against Russia will be applied to other countries. A number of countries are also bearing the impact of US and allied sanctions against Russia.
A number of senior Asian diplomats confirmed Gowan's remarks. In addition, more and more countries do not feel their national interests materialize by following Western maneuvers.
In Kiev, while still asking for arms shipments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his readiness to promote peace. Various rounds of Russian-Ukrainian negotiations continue. The European Union's richest duo, Germany and France, continue to push for an end to the war.
However, according to a number of senior Asian diplomats, the supply of weapons and foreign militias to Ukraine presents a dilemmatic situation. On the one hand, these supplies are needed to prevent the invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine. However, on the other hand, it also enables the war to rage on all the more fiercely. (AFP/AP/REUTERS )
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