Curbing Political Escalation

ABK

Azyumardi Azra

The political temperature in the country has increased over the last several months. If this symptom is not addressed by President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and Vice President Ma'ruf Amin, as well as high-ranking officials and political party elites, with a cool head and a reconciliatory approach, the situation may get worse and hamper the recovery of the nation-state from Covid-19 and all its impacts in various aspects of life.

Kompas daily and the author of this column, when Kompas journalists asked for comments, repeatedly reminded the national leadership elite and the political elite about the urgency to curb the political escalation that could disrupt national stability (Kompas, 24/2/2022).

Observing its development, Kompas then firmly stated: "End Political Operations to Delay the 2024 Election" on Saturday (12/3). So far, the caution and warnings seem to be batu jatuh ke lubuk (going unheeded).

The strengthening of political escalation started in the early months of President Jokowi's second term in office with Vice President Amin. Now, in the remaining two years of office, including the 14 February 2024 election, there are many indications and phenomena that show the strengthening of political escalation. All of this is clearly revealed in the news and discourse of print media, electronic media and social media, as well as settling latent under the surface that can explode.

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It can be imagined that after the election on 14 February 2024, toward the end of their term on 19 October 2024, President Jokowi and Vice President Amin, as has happened in other countries, will have become lame ducks, who will no longer be effective in exercising power. President Jokowi and Vice President Amin should sit quietly waiting for the inauguration of the new president and vice president on 20 October 2024.

However, ahead of the 2024 general elections and the succession of the national leadership, which is expected to run safely, latent political escalation continues even though the source of the related events has been around for a while. There were controversies and commotions related to government legislation and the House of Representatives amending laws or discussing draft laws. This happened in the amendment of the Corruption Eradication Law (KPK) Law from Law No. 30 of 2002 to Law No. 19/2019, Job Creation Law No. 11/2020, amendments of the Mining Law from Law No. 4/2009 to Law No. 3/2020, and Government Regulation No. 3/2022 on the new capital city (IKN). The legislative process during the revision of the KPK Law and the drafting of the Job Creation Bill using the omnibus law method created a wave of demonstrations that killed several student demonstrators. The further impact of this phenomenon is the decline of democracy. Until now, no efforts have been seen on the part of the top elite of the executive, legislative and political parties to restore democracy.

The political and social escalation was also spurred by economic and trade conditions, which in recent months have become increasingly unfavorable for most residents. This is related to the scarcity and rising prices of cooking oil, soybeans for tofu and tempeh, beef, sugar and other basic commodities. Simultaneously, there has been an increase in fuel prices and a shortage of diesel fuel, an increase in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices and an increase in toll road tariffs. Dehumanization occurs when housewives line up for hundreds of meters, even thousands of meters, to get 2 liters of bulk cooking oil that are “not cheap”.

KOMPAS/FERGANATA INDRA RIATMOKO

Residents queue to buy cooking oil at a distributor in Muntilan District, Magelang, Central Java, Monday (21/3/2022). The purchase of cooking oil for Rp 15,500 per kilogram in that place is limited to 16 kilograms per person..

High-ranking government officials argued that the price increase was caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The reason was far-fetched and was later denied by stating that the scarcity of cooking oil was caused by the conspiracy of cartels and oligopoly networks of producers, distributors and retailers. A statement from so-called high-ranking officials also circulated: 'It [the government] is not able to fight the trade cartels.” If this statement is true, Indonesia is on its way to becoming a “failed state” because it is unable to protect its people from the so-called cartels.

Political escalation also continued in connection with proposals by three general chairmen of political parties: Muhaimin Iskandar from the National Awakening Party (PKB), Airlangga Hartarto from the Golkar Party who is also the coordinating economy minister, Zulkifli Hasan from National Mandate Party (PAN), Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia and Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan. The investigative reports of many mainstream mass media reveal that they have been “coordinating” open proposals about postponing the 2024 presidential election and extending President Jokowi's term until 2027 — or changing the President’s term of office from two to three terms.

After the controversy and commotion escalated, President Jokowi finally declared that he would comply with the Constitution and called the proposals “democratic aspirations”.

"Anyone can propose an extension of the presidential term."

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This statement failed and does not appear intended to end the political commotion but even make it more turbid, splitting President Jokowi's political coalition. The PDI-P along with six other political parties rejected the postponement of the 2024 general elections and the extension of the President's term of office, closing the proposed amendment to the 1945 Constitution, which could be the entry point for increasing the term of office of the president to three or more terms.

Political conditions could definitely be more favorable. The way to do it is to immediately stop the mobilization of determination that involves the community, student masses and village heads to support President Jokowi's third term in office. Whoever the initiating actor must stop this action, which can clearly trigger explosive political escalation and horizontal conflicts between conflicting groups of citizens.

Persisting, increasing or latent political escalation does not benefit the life of the nation and state. It is appropriate for the executive, legislative and political party elites to stop the commotion once for all and concentrate on building a positive legacy for the progress of the nation after the 2019-2024 national leadership.

AZYUMARDI AZRA, History professor, Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN); member of the Cultural Commission, the Indonesian Academy of Sciences (AIPI)

This article was translated by Hyginus Hardoyo.