COVID-19 Cases Soar in Provinces of ‘Mudik’ Destination

The Idul Fitri mudik (exodus) tradition has led to an increase in COVID-19 cases in destination provinces. Similar incidents after long holidays need to be anticipated in the future.

KOMPAS/AGUS SUSANTO

A pickup truck crosses the full Covid-19 special cemetery at TPU Srengseng Sawah, South Jakarta, Tuesday (25/5/2021). Active cases and deaths due to Covid-19 increased after the Idul Fitri  holiday along with the increase in citizen mobility and the emergence of new variants.

JAKARTA, KOMPAS — The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the last few days is believed to be the impact of the Idul Fitri holidays. This phenomenon interrupts the decreasing trend that has been showing in the last few months. More evaluation is needed to ensure that long holidays will not trigger a spike in cases in the future.

Based on Kompas\' calculation, until the third week after Idul Fitri, there was an increase of 3,704 cases (10.1 percent) compared to weekly cases before Idul Fitri. This figure is not believed to be the peak of the impact of Idul Fitri. By comparison, the peak of the post-Christmas-New Year\'s holiday occurred about one month after the last day of the holiday.

This is considered to have interrupted the downward trend of COVID-19 cases that occurred in Indonesia in February-April. A University of Indonesia biostatistics expert, Iwan Ariawan, said that the post-Idul Fitri increase in cases had disrupted the positive momentum in the decline in COVID-19 cases.

In the first week of February, the average daily number of cases was 11,325. In the week before Idul Fitri, the average was 5,221 cases. This means that there is a downward trend in cases.

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"Indonesia is actually showing a good trend, where the cases kept decreasing. After mudik, the cases will rise again, but we can\'t see how high it will go. We all have to monitor one month after the end of the Idul Fitri holiday," said Iwan on Friday (4/6/2021).

The increase in cases in the two weeks after Idul Fitri was more moderate than that of Idul Fitri 2020 or the Christmas and New Year holidays. Post-Idul Fitri 2020, the increase in positive COVID-19 cases was as high as 2,523 (54.1 percent) in the week before Idul Fitri (4,667 cases were recorded) and two weeks after Idul Fitri (7,190 cases). The Christmas-New Year holiday triggered a 67.9 percent rise in daily cases.

We all have to monitor one month after the end of the Idul Fitri holiday.

Based on the results of a Kompas analysis, the increase in the number of cases after Idul Fitri this year mostly occurred in provinces of mudik destinations and was triggered by several factors.

First, the high number of COVID-19 cases in the provinces of origin and destination before Idul Fitri. Second, there was a spike in cases in the provinces themselves before Idul Fitri. Third, the dynamics of mobility in the provinces before and during Idul Fitri.

KOMPAS/AMBROSIUS HARTO

Front page of the Joint Defense Area Command Field Hospital 2 Surabaya, East Java, Tuesday (25/5/2021). The Surabaya Field Hospital handles Covid-19 patients from the general public and migrant workers arriving from abroad, including those infected with the new mutation of the corona virus from England and South Africa.

Effects of ‘mudik’

Up to three weeks after Idul Fitri, five provinces had the highest increase in cases: Central Java, which saw a jump of 3,444 cases from 2,658 in the week before Idul Fitri to 6,102 three weeks after; Riau Islands with an additional 974 cases; West Nusa Tenggara with 566 cases; Aceh 681 cases; and Yogyakarta with 334 cases.

Central Java, according to Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data, is a major mudik destination, as well as East Java, Jakarta, West Java and South Sulawesi.

According to BPS, travelers mostly came from 28 provinces. Two of them recorded an increase in cases before Idul Fitri, namely West Java (increasing by 1,309 cases) and West Sumatra (increasing by 657 cases).

Transmission from travelers was believed to be the cause of the increase in cases because before Idul Fitri, there was no spike in cases. The increase was also influenced by the mobility of Central Java residents outside their homes, which caused a sharp increase that was above the national average.

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According to the Google Mobility Report, there was an increase in the mobility rate of Central Java residents, starting from the movement in tourist sites, which rose 20.3 percent; the markets, which rose by 24.5 percent; and parks, by 41.3 percent. This figures were obtained from the difference in the average movement of residents one week before and two weeks after Idul Fitri, with an average of three weeks before Idul Fitri.

In Central Java, Kudus is the regency with the highest number of cases. Data from the COVID-19 task force as of May 30 showed an increase of up to 3,473 percent, from 26 cases the week before to 929 cases.

As of Sunday (6/6) at noon, Central Java has 209,305 positive cases of COVID-19; there had been an addition of 1,109 positive cases in the last 24 hours.

As a measure to anticipate the spread of cases, a number of COVID-19 patients with no symptoms and mild symptoms in Kudus regency will be taken to the Haji Donohudan Dormitory, Boyolali regency, which has been used as a place of centralized isolation.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Asymptomatic Covid-19 patients who will undergo isolation after being picked up by officers to Rusunawa Kudus, Kudus Regency, Central Java, Sunday (6/6/2021). The latest data on June 6, 2021, the Covid-19 task force monitored 5,600 close contacts. There are 1,280 residents undergoing self-isolation.

Meanwhile, in Klaten regency, as of Saturday (5/6), the Klaten COVID-19 Mitigation Acceleration Task Force reported an increase in the number of positive COVID-19 cases by as many as 107 people. This figure was quite high because in the previous two days, the addition of daily cases was only 25 and 27 people.

The increase in cases was dominated by transmissions within families, which started from a resident who had traveled to Kudus.

The spike in cases also occurred in East Java, with an increase of 92 cases between the week before Idul Fitri and three weeks after Idul Fitri. This past week, COVID-19 cases jumped in Bangkalan and Lamongan regencies.

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The increase in cases in Bangkalan was dominated by clusters of health workers. Meanwhile in Lamongan, the explosion of cases began with sick residents who previously went to Bojonegoro and Sidoarjo. The COVID-19 task force in each regency has implemented a limited lockdown.

In addition to travelers from outside the region, the increase in cases could also be triggered by internal mobility. This happened in Aceh. During the Idul Fitri holiday, the mobility of people in five types of locations experienced a spike and all of them were above the national average, ranging from tourist sites, which rose 16.3 percent, to markets (15 percent) and parks (33.5 percent).

Always repeating

The increase in COVID-19 cases after idul Fitri is part of a phenomenon of the impact of long holidays during the pandemic. The longer the vacation, the higher the number of positive cases.

Mobility restriction policies implemented by the government for long holidays are not fully effective. Victor, 42, an employee of a private company, was able to avoid road blocks by timing his departure and avoiding checkpoints.

The spokesman for the COVID-19 task force, Wiku Adisasmito, said that based on an evaluation of the mudik ban during the Idul Fitri holiday, there was a need to better disseminate information related to the policy and as early as possible. In addition, the information should not only be spread in certain circles but also to the grassroots level.

According to Wiku, the government will be stronger in encouraging the formation of monitoring command posts at the village and subdistrict levels to anticipate a spike in cases following a holiday.

"This is because the essential function [of the command posts] is to prevent transmission at the community level," he said.

(PUT/SPW/XNA/BRO/ETA/NCA/DIT/DAN/GIO)

This article was translated by Hyginus Hardoyo.