Natural Disasters and Our Systemic Vulnerability

Natural and non-natural disasters have befallen us. Heavy rains due to the category-2 Seroja cyclone hitting East Nusa Tenggara have caused landslides, flash floods and also cold lava to devastate several regencies, claiming hundreds of lives and destroying buildings, including bridges and ports.

In itself, the Seroja cyclone has brought about multiple disasters. In its broader context, the cyclone has increased the number of disasters occurring at the same in Indonesia, along with the Covid-19 pandemic that has not yet been fully controlled.

Disasters should be treated as a national strategic issue. The state, covering central and regional governments, can no longer only have reactive responses when disasters strike. The public and private circles can no longer merely provide charitable aid through contributions and donations for our disaster stricken fellow citizens.

Also read: Disasters and Problems of Governance

We should seriously make preparations to face disasters because this resource-rich country is at the same time very vulnerable to all kinds of calamities of moderate to mega magnitudes, such as the tsunami in 2004.

Rebuilding regions ruined by disasters is a long and exhausting task. To date, a lot of disaster victims who became displaced have yet been unable to return to their places of origin, while those evacuated from more recent catastrophes have been increasing in number. Every time there’s a disaster, the region affected seemingly pushes the reset button, having to start its development from scratch. What was painstakingly built before, material and non-material, may be gone with nothing left.

Kompas

Seroja tropical cyclone position on Tuesday (6/4/2021) at 19.46 WIB. Source: Windy.com

Systemic vulnerability

In the context of strategic thinking, the term systemic vulnerability is familiar. Richard Doner, Bryan Ritchie and Dan Slater in their study, “Systemic Vulnerability and the Origins of Developmental States: Northeast and Southeast Asia in Comparative Perspective” (2005), found that countries with evident systemic vulnerability generally become advanced nations as they can focus on the mobilization of resources to overcome it.

For instance, Taiwan will always feel systemically threatened by China across the strait. South Korea has always felt threatened with annexation by Japan and now its neighbor North Korea owns nuclear weapons with definite power of destruction.

Also read: South Kalimantan Flood a Gloomy Picture of Natural Destruction

Taiwan and South Korea overcome their systemic vulnerability by state institutionalization, establishment of coherent bureaucracy as well as strong social organizations and private sectors.

In Indonesia, disaster constitutes our systemic vulnerability. Therefore, disasters should be viewed, treated and faced in a systemic manner. It is indeed surprising if the repeated disasters we experience in various regions, from western to eastern tips, have not induced any strenuous endeavor to make preparations.

Let’s examine disaster data in Indonesia. Data from the National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) show that in 2019 alone Indonesia recorded 3,814 disasters, comprising floods (784), whirlwinds (1,387), landslides (719), forest and land fires (746), droughts (123), tidal waves and abrasions (18), earthquakes (30) and volcanic eruptions (7).

Also read: Floods and Underground Reservoirs

It can be concluded that 99 percent of the disasters in Indonesia during 2019 took place as the effects of weather and surface currents, while 1 percent was geological in nature. The same pattern was consistently noted in previous years.

In 2019, over six million people were evacuated due to disasters, mostly being hydrometeorological ones. Meanwhile, although only 1 percent, geological disasters generally caused damage to a larger number of buildings. During 2019, losses inflicted by major floods in Bengkulu, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi and Sentani Papua totaled around Rp6 trillion.

KOMPAS/P RADITYA MAHENDRA YASA

Residents of flash flood victims queue to get kerosene and fuel oil at Waiwerang Village, East Flores District, East Flores Regency, East Nusa Tenggara, Wednesday (7/4/2021). Most of the people of Adonara Island use kerosene for cooking.

Some of the disasters are “predictable”. The pattern of hydrometeorological disasters indicates that during January-April and September-December, wet hydrometeorological disasters are dominant (rains, landslides and whirlwinds), while in the middle of the year dry hydrometeorological disasters (droughts and forest/land fires) prevail.

Indonesia has no shortage scientists in different aspects of calamity, volcanologists, tsunami specialists, earthquake experts, geologists, climatologists, epidemiologists and others. They are well-published scientists whose expertise are internationally appreciated. Just like the lesson from the non-natural Covid-19 pandemic disaster that scientists or epidemiologists are the first to be consulted, it should be the case with natural disasters.

Also read: Floods and Climate Change

For this reason, ascertaining that the world of science gets connected with policy making is a necessity. Scientists can guide us in understanding the pattern of disasters and finally formulating an optimal policy.

Better preparations

Study results of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) through Focus Group Discussions with various stakeholders related to disasters from state institutions, private sectors and civil societies/academicians conducted throughout 2019, concluded that in order to make preparations for the better control of disasters, several things should be ready.

First and foremost, there should be political commitment and solid leadership from central to regional governments. Political commitment is needed to realize focuses, priorities, budgets, bureaucratic constraint settlements, law enforcement related to disasters, environment damage and certainly corruption.

Also read: Extreme Weather, Weather Modification and Disaster

Second, continuous institutionalization of disaster management is needed. Institutionally there should be an agency in charge of pondering, responding to and mitigating disasters. The BNPB is the institution whose authority should be strengthened under a strong legal umbrella with a sufficient budget and good resources.

BASARNAS BANJARMASIN

Members of the Banjarmasin National SAR Agency (Basarnas) evacuate flood victims in Pengaron District, Banjar Regency, South Kalimantan, Tuesday (12/1/2021).

In some countries like China, disaster mitigation is managed by a special ministry. In the U.S., the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has 5,000 permanent employees plus 23,000 temporary ones who are well trained and ready to be dispatched to all parts of the U.S. when disasters occur.

Technological and human resources investments in the handling of disasters are badly needed. If the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is capable of detecting the possibility of hydrological disasters through its technological equipment and system, the next assignment is to communicate the early detection to relevant central and regional institutions that are able to make prompt responses and or have made proper preparations long before the disasters arise.

Also read: Annual Flooding

In other words, the development of disaster handling technology is very much needed but the mobilization of resources and strong bureaucracy are also considerably demanded.

Third, disaster literacy is required. Tenacious communities to deal with disasters should be prepared. However, disaster literacy is just needed by policy makers at the executive level, central to regional government officials as well as politicians and legislators. It’s because these groups will make policies, determine priorities in planning and prepare budgets.

Local governments should be the most prepared and strong enough to become first responders when disasters hit their regions.

If they have a high degree of disaster literacy, central and regional policy making will be open to research, transparency maintained, priorities properly determined and people very well prepared in their regions in the event of disasters.

Besides, local governments should be the most prepared and strong enough to become first responders when disasters hit their regions. In several disasters, local governments have just been the first to collapse, which serves as an initial indication that in the disaster literacy policy the readiness of bureaucratic circles is far from adequate.

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

Philip Vermonte

If the three fundamentals are readied, disasters as systemic vulnerabilities can be transformed into an opportunity for advancement, by creating efficient organizations and management systems, coherent bureaucracy as well as mutual assistance between the public, private groups and the state. Systemic vulnerability should become a motivator rather than an impediment to advancement.

Philips Vermonte, Executive Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS); Convenor, Disaster Management Research Unit.

(This article is translated by Aris Prawira.